Well, I wasn’t planning on doing content for the 4-game Thursday late slate, but it’s actually not a terrible slate. The contests are trash, but I’m playing it, because I have questionable discipline.
Let’s break it down.
SP1 – Hunter Greene, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Max Fried, Logan Webb
Pretty rich group of arms at the top, even on a 4-game slate. As of now, it appears as though Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the chalk SP1 at $9,700 at home against San Francisco. In terms of ownership, Max Fried and Hunter Greene are next, while Logan Webb looks like more of an afterthought.
Yamamoto is excellent, but the matchup isn’t a breeze. The Giants get a nice park bump going into Dodger Stadium, and they’ve been much tougher (.179 ISO, .337 wOBA, 22.3% Ks) on righties in general. Yama does check most of the boxes in terms of his own skills. As things look now, I’m probably not going to come all that close to matching the field’s ownership on him, though he will obviously be in my pool.
My highest-owned ace will likely be Greene, who draws the Cubs at home. In addition to being the slate’s best strikeout pitcher (31.6%), Greene has also really reined in the control and power issues that plagued him earlier in his career. Most importantly, I think $8,700 is a pretty severe underpay for a stud like this. It’s not an easy spot, especially in a hitter-friendly park, but he is simply too cheap, so I’ll be heavily invested.
Fried (22.6%) isn’t in the same class as the others in terms of K-rate, but the groundballs (52.7%) and general power prevention make him steadily excellent. We’ve also been picking on the Orioles all year with lefties (25.5% Ks, .140 ISO), so it’s a pretty safe spot on paper. I’m just not sure a better matchup means Fried should cost $500 more than Greene, who unquestionably has the higher ceiling.
Webb got slapped around by these very Dodgers last weekend, and tonight he’ll face them in a more hitter-friendly environment. I’m not necessarily expecting another calamity from him, and he’s playable because his skill set is pretty similar to Fried’s, but I agree he should be an afterthought on this slate.
SP2 – Colin Rea, Yusei Kikuchi, Quinn Priester, Cade Povich
This second tier isn’t quite as exciting, but there’s playable stuff around here. If anyone’s chalk it’ll be Quinn Priester against this joke of an Angels offense that simply can’t stop striking out against righties. They’re up to 27.8%. Priester is only sporting a 19.4% K-rate for the year, as he gets most of his outs via groundballs (56.8%). While we know the Halos have some thunder, it’s hard to ignore the K potential. Plus, Priester is only $8,000.
Yusei Kikuchi on the other side of the matchup is probably the 2nd-most-talented arm of the bunch, but he’s really sucked (15.5% Ks, .245 ISO, .387 wOBA allowed) over the last month. Milwaukee isn’t great offensively, but they are pesky. I suppose you can have a dusting of Yusei in a multi-entry set, but I don’t see a great case for playing him.
Colin Rea (at CIN) and Cade Povich (vs. NYY) both crack the pool. I don’t think there’s anything special about Rea, but a $5,500 salary comes in handy on a slate with some expensive bats and pitchers worth paying for. There are also some extra strikeouts to be found in this Cincy lineup (24.3%), and it’s not a particularly powerful group.
Nobody will play Povich against the Yankees, but, as usual, this lineup isn’t quite as imposing against lefties. Povich has also pitched pretty well this year, with a strikeout rate pushing 25%. A double-digit barrel rate is a little scary given the Yankees’ power, but the only bats I’m truly scared of would be Judge and Stanton. Amed Rosario is hitting 5th, for fuck’s sake. He’s only $6,000, so I like it.
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Reds, Angels, Giants, Yankees
I think my highest-owned stack will be the Dodgers against Webb at home. There are lots of paths to this going awry, but I’m banking on talent and the helpful ballpark winning out. Plus, it’s a tiny slate, and I think the Yankees are probably the chalk offense.
Webb has allowed a barrel rate north of 13% to lefties over the past month, so Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman is a pretty tough 3-pack to throw at him, while Michael Conforto, Tommy Edman, and Dalton Rushing will hold the platoon edge. Andy Pages and Mookie Betts have high enough flyball rates from the right side to help offset Webb’s groundballs.
I can’t say the Yankees are bad chalk on a 4-game slate, especially considering they’ve hit like 40 more homers than any other team in the sport this year. I do think I’ll be underweight, however, as an ownership edge on a small slate. I mentioned Judge and Stanton being the headliners. Amed Rosario is cheap but has some pinch-hit risk, while I’m not super geeked about guys like Grisham, Bellinger, and Wells lefty-lefty. Paul Goldschmidt also appears to be pretty washed.
I’ll get to some Rea, but I’ll hedge that with some Reds stacks in a great park for power hunting. Lefties (.215 ISO, .379 wOBA) have clubbed him, for the most part. Good news for TJ Friedl, Elly De La Cruz, Gavin Lux, and Will Benson.
Quinn Priester Chalk Night puts the Angels in play for pure leverage, as nobody’s firing them up, and they do still hit some dongs. Just power hunting with Trout, Ward, and Adell, for the most part.
Yama will also be chalk, and the Giants’ bats have some around lately. If you can’t stomach stacking the Angels, maybe this team looks a little more appealing. Righties (8.2% barrels) have hit Yamamoto a little harder – which bodes well for Matt Chapman and Willy Adames – but I’d still get to Rafael Devers first. Bryce Eldridge is a high-end power-hitting prospect you can get for $2,500, as well.
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