June 3 is always a special day on the calendar, as it was on this day in 1892 that John Houlding founded Liverpool Football Club. He was later the Lord Mayor of Liverpool, which is a pretty desirable title, I have to say.
There are a few afternoon games scattered hither and yon throughout this great land of ours, but I’m here to discuss the 9 games making up tonight’s main slate. There are several high-end pitchers worth a look, and the cheap stuff is dicey, at best. We’ll see if potential pitcher chalk opens up some decent leverage opportunities.
On we march.
Best Pitcher Plays for Wednesday, June 3
- Shohei Ohtani ($11,000, at AZ)
- Paul Skenes ($10,500, at HOU)
- Chase Boo-urns ($10,000, vs. KC)
- Gerrit Cole ($9,500, vs. CLE)
- Spencer Arrighetti ($9,000, vs. PIT)
- Gavin Williams ($8,500, at NYY)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,300, at STL)
- Logan Webb ($8,000, at MIL)
- Walbert Urena ($7,300, vs. COL)
- Andre Pallante ($6,800, vs. TEX)
- Jeffrey Springs ($6,500, at CHC)
- Colin Rea ($6,200, vs. ATH)
- Robert Gasser ($5,500, vs. SF)
- Michael Lorenzen ($5,000, at LAA)
Alright, so lots of aces out there tonight. Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive of them at $11,000 for a tricky matchup at Arizona. Ohtani has a sub-1.00 ERA this season, while his 3.22 SIERA tells us he’s been very lucky with run prevention. He’s generating a healthy amount of Ks (28.6%) and groundballs (49.2%). The DBax (18.5% Ks, 40.9% GBs) don’t strike out or hit the ball into the ground much. I assume Ohtani will put together a fine start, but I’m not all that excited to chase a ceiling in a low-ceiling spot, especially at $11,000.
Paul Skenes is next up at $10,500 in Houston. Skenes’ sub-3.00 ERA and SIERA are in line with each other, while his Ks (29.4%) are similar to Ohtani’s. Skenes also has more reliable control. The Houston offense has gotten pretty good results, but most of the power here is concentrated between the first few hitters in the lineup. The bottom of the order is awfully thin right now, and there are some high-strikeout hitters down there, as well. I think it’s a better spot for Skenes than Ohtani, all things considered, and I think Skenes is probably the superior pitcher in the first place. I suppose it’s worth noting Skenes will be considerably more expensive than Ohtani, which makes Ohtani a semi-alluring pivot for GPPs.
Chase Burns was scratched a couple of days ago due to illness, but he’s apparently healthy enough to take on the Royals tonight. Burns was shaping up to be heavy chalk that night, and I’d expect some ownership tonight, as well. While his strikeout rate this season (28.9%) is similar to those of Skenes and Ohtani, I think there’s some meat still on the bone with Burns based on his better swinging strike rate and similar Stuff+ numbers. I’m not sure the Ks will spike in a matchup against a Kansas City lineup with a collective 22.6% strikeout rate vs. RHP, and there is some risk in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a lineup with 6 left-handed bats in it. I like Burns enough to call him the SP2 overall behind Skenes and ahead of Ohtani without factoring in salary.
Gerrit Cole looked decent with only a couple of strikeouts in his first start back from injury before exploding for 10 strikeouts in his most recent start in Kansas City. 10 strikeouts on 79 pitches, no less. Peak efficiency, folks. He still hasn’t allowed a run, while his 3.78 SIERA is solid. His 26.7 % K-rate through 2 starts is similar to the 25.4% mark he posted in his last fully healthy season in 2024, while his swinging strike rate and Stuff+ numbers are down. The Cleveland lineup Cole faces tonight isn’t rife with power (.135 ISO, .300 wOBA), but it ain’t rife with Ks, either (18.8%). Cole has also thrown 72 and 79 pitches in his first 2 outings, so I think 90ish is what we can expect here if things go well enough. I think Cole is playable, but $9,500 isn’t cheap, and I think people will chase the big strikeout outing. I don’t really have much interest here on a slate with plenty of good alternatives. Hope I’m right!
Spencer Arrighetti is next up at $9,000 and facing the Pirates opposite Skenes. His results have been excellent (1.34 ERA!). The numbers under the hood (4.76 SIERA!)? Not so fast, my friend. Arrighetti isn’t exactly racking up the Ks (21.7%), while his 13.1% walk rate is hardly a surprise given his career 11.3% walk rate in the majors. He’s stranded nearly 90% of baserunners with a .210 BABIP allowed, so regression is on the way at some point. I will politely fade Arrighetti.
Gavin Williams ($8,500) is an interesting play, as is usually the case with ace-caliber pitchers facing the Yankees. His 3.07 ERA aligns with his 3.18 SIERA, and his 29% strikeout rate puts him among the slate’s aces. Williams has also toned down the walks (7.9%), while his 13.6% swinging strike rate is 12th-best in all of baseball and 2nd-highest on this slate behind only Burns. The Yankees are scary, but less so with Aaron Judge out injured. Among those active, only Ben Rice (.362) is truly crushing righties. My main concern is the Yankees’ patience (11.9%) could cause his old control issues to rear their ugly heads. I guess control issues have several heads like Cerberus. Moral of the story, I guess, is that I’m in on Williams because I think he’s just as talented as guys like Ohtani and Burns, yet he’s cheaper, and should be lower-owned thanks to the perceived bad matchup.
One of the slate’s trickier cases is Logan Webb on the road in Milwaukee. The Brewers don’t look like a good offense, and yet, they keep doing it year after year. This year, the Brewers’ projected lineup is striking out just 19.9% of the time vs. RHP, albeit with limited thunder (.146 ISO). They do get on base (.341 wOBA), and the smallball, death-by-papercut style works. Webb is kind of a death-by-papercut pitcher himself, relying heavily on BABIP and groundballs (58.2%) without a ton of Ks (20.6%). Webb’s 3.68 SIERA says his 4.82 ERA is unlucky, though I kinda doubt last year’s 26.2% strikeout rate is coming back, either. It’s an average K guy who needs batted balls to go his way. One thing in his favor is Milwaukee hits a ton of groundballs (48.6%), though their speedy lineup helps to turn some would-be outs into infield hits and shit like that.
I think Webb is cheap enough ($8,000) to be a solid play, but there’s a lot of volatility in this matchup given his and the Brewers’ respective styles. I’ll have some exposure because he’s a good pitcher who looks too cheap, but I’m a little concerned about the potential for his ownership to get steamed up. This is a guy I don’t at all mind fading if that’s the case.
MacKenzie Gore has a 3.96 ERA and a 4.00 SIERA. The strikeout stuff is pretty good (25.3%), but high walks (10.5%) tend to be his undoing. I don’t see anything outstanding about Gore’s surface or underlying numbers, though the Cardinals lineup he’ll face tonight (16.2% Ks vs. LHP) is very high-contact, even if they’re not doing a ton of slugging (.144 ISO). St. Louis has an implied total of 4 runs, which is around average, too. I assume Gore will be the lowest-owned of the Gore/Williams/Webb axis of evil, so I suppose that’s a check in MacKenzie’s box. I just prefer Williams.
Walbert Urena gets the Rockies. Things didn’t go particularly well for Jose Soriano or Grayson Rodriguez in this matchup, so it’ll be interesting to see if Walbert gets some ownership at $7,300. I think this is a very talented pitcher that the Angels simply don’t know how to unleash. He’s gotten good results with a 2.44 ERA, but the 4.62 SIERA is more telling. Urena’s 21.1% strikeout rate is middling, while the 12.9% walk rate is #bad.
What’s interesting is Urena has very good stuff. His sinker and slider are both elite by Stuff+, while his fastball has been awful (despite healthy velocity), and his change-up is a bit sub-average. Despite Urena’s slider being legitimately elite and his best pitch, it’s the one he’s using the least (14.1%). He’s using his change-up (34%) more than anything else, annoyingly. Get this guy on the Rays or something, because the Angels simply cannot get out of their own way, even with good pitchers.
Anyway, enough about that. Urena’s excellent sinker helps him keep the ball on the ground (51.6%), and the Rockies do have some groundballers in the lineup. Colorado also has some patient bats (9.5% walks vs. RHP), so Urena’s control will be tested here, similar to Soriano and G-Rod. If the struggles of the previous pitchers and his relative anonymity lead to low ownership, I kinda like taking a flier on Urena at $7,300. If he’s somewhat chalky Because It’s The Rockies, Urena is certainly avoidable.
Andre Pallante generally isn’t a fun roster. He’s a poor man’s Webb, with middling strikeout stuff (18.3%) and decent groundball generation (53%). Pallante has been solid against righties and nothing special vs. LHBs, and Texas can throw 5 lefties at him. Pallante is cheap and it’s a pitcher-friendly park, but I don’t plan to get a whole lot of this.
Jeffrey Springs and Colin Rea will go toe-to-toe at Wrigley in a game with some decent pitching weather. These guys are both about as average as average gets. They’re also both cheap and low-owned. The A’s are the more imposing lineup these days, while the Cubs don’t profile too well against lefties. I suppose that leads me to prefer Springs over Rea, but I don’t have much of a take here. Secondary plays, at best.
Robert Gasser is a late entry as the Brewers’ starter against the Giants for just $5,500. He has been atrocious this season at the MLB level with far too many walks (14.6%) and not a ton of Ks (17.1%), but he profiles as a guy who should generate some strikeouts. Most importantly, he’s $5,500 and facing the trash-ass Giants as a lefty. If you need a punt, here’s your man.
Michael Lorenzen is just $5,000 and gets a #RevengeGame against the Angels. Lorenzen has actually fared decently well against righties (.083 ISO, .305 wOBA, 2.6% barrels), and the Angels are a pile of righty power hitters who strike out (24.9% vs. RHP). Ks aren’t a big part of Lorenzen’s game, and it’s worth noting he has a longer track record of not being particularly good against RHBs. The main thing is that he’s just $5,000 and in a pretty good matchup, and I assume the Angels will be a popular offense against him. Not a bad leverage play if you have the Balls to play him in a large field.
SP Rankings
- Skenes
- Burns
- Williams
- Ohtani
- Webb
- Gasser
- Urena
- Gore
- Lorenzen
- Cole
- Springs
- Arrighetti
- Rea
- Pallante
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Wednesday
- Braves (vs. Patrick Corbin)
- Angels (vs. Michael Lorenzen)
- Pirates (at Spencer Arrighetti)
- Dodgers (at Zac Gallen)
- Brewers (vs. Logan Webb)
- A’s (at Colin Rea)
- Reds (vs. Stephen Kolek)
- Rockies (at Walbert Urena)
- Royals (at Chase Burns)
There is but one team on the slate with an implied run total over 5, and that is the Dodgers in Arizona against Zac Gallen. Gallen’s numbers have continued to tail off this season, and he’s been particularly woeful vs. lefties (12.5% Ks, 12% barrels). His control is good and he’s keeping the ball on the ground, but that’s about it. The Dodgers have some menacing LHBs between Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, and Freddie Freeman, while Alex Freeland will also hold the platoon edge. I’m happy to play Will Smith here as well. If the field is paying up for pitching, they’re not gonna be able to play the full Dodgers stack, which makes the cheaper SPs look more compelling.
Patrick Corbin is still lugging the Gas Can reputation around, but in reality, he’s much more average (4.40 SIERA) than bad. He’s only bad compared to his 3.65 ERA, which is a fluke. Corbin continues to stifle his fellow lefties (56% groundballs, 23.9% Ks, 2.2% walks), while he’s relying on BABIP to get RHBs out. Ronald Acuna Jr. is up there with the slate’s top overall hitters, but it’s hard to find much else to get excited about. Austin Riley? Ozzie Albies? They’ve both seen better days as hitters, though they will hit from the right side. Matt Olson hits the ball hard and in the air even against same-handed pitching, so he’s my 2nd priority overall here behind Acuna in stacks. I suppose Ha-Seong Kim is next, but I don’t love this overall.
Both sides of the COL-LAA game are playable. The field likely wants to pick on Lorenzen, but the majority of his trouble this year has come against lefties. The left-handed Angels are Wade Meckler, Donovan Walton, and Adam Frazier. To be fair, I’m not totally buying Lorenzen’s resurgence vs. RHBs, so if I’m stacking Anaheim, I’m still making Mike Trout, Jo Adell, and Jorge Soler priorities, while Logan O’Hoppe is nice and cheap. Meckler is my favorite of the lefty bunch.
Urena can get himself into trouble with walks, but he’s managed to limit damage. Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Willi Castro, Troy Johnston, and Ezequiel Tovar are the Rockies’ most consistent flyball hitters, while Jake McCarthy has been in good form atop the lineup. Colorado is probably better off as a mini-stack outside if larger-field stuff.
The Reds have a solid 4.4 total against Stephen Kolek. His 4.21 SIERA is certainly worse than his 3.48 ERA, but not terrible overall. Kolek’s control is good, and he keeps the ball on the ground, even against LHBs. There’s nothing otherwise noteworthy about his skills, and his 9.1% K-rate vs. RHBs is extremely embarrassing. Cincy’s lineup is also full of flyball hitters, which is helpful to the cause in this matchup. JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, Spencer Steer, and Tyler Stephenson have 10%+ barrel rates vs. RHP on the season. No issues with Eugenio Suarez if you need the $1,000 savings from Stewart. One issue is potential ownership.
The Royals faceplanted as chalk yesterday, and nobody will play them tonight against Burns. I’m a fan of Burns, but he’s a child with dicey control (12.7% walks) and some power prevention issues (.195 ISO) against lefties. Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins, Michael Massey, and Vinnie Pasquantino all have impressive barrel rates this year against righties from the left side, as does Bobby Witt Jr. as a RHB. In this ballpark against a chalky Burns, the Royals are probably my favorite leverage stack on the board.
You can also play that angle with Brewers against Webb. The problem is you’re probably not power hunting here; you just need the Brewers to hit a bunch of singles, steal some bases, and do the damage that way. Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are the only non-groundball hitters in this lineup, though I’d still get to Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich in stacks.
Based on the numbers, Arrighetti has been much luckier than good. Effectively wild, they say. I doubt the Pirates will be played on this slate, but I’m again very into the lefties – Horwitz, Lowe, Reynolds, O’Hearn, Cruz is a sexy 5-pack of Buccos swinging from the left side.
You can always hunt for power with the A’s, even with pitcher-friendly wind in Chicago. Nick Kurtz, Carlos Cortes, and Tyler Soderstrom from the left side, Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers from the right.
Other Stuff I’m Into
- Cardinals vs. Gore – Walker, Herrera, Velazquez
- Guardians vs. Cole – Ramirez, Bazzana, DeLauter, Manzardo
- Blue Jays at Holmes – Vlad, Varsho, Okamoto, Sanchez, Lukes
- Yankees vs. Williams – Rice, Jazz, Grisham, Bellinger
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Dodgers
- Angels
- Braves
- Pirates
- Royals
- Guardians
- Cardinals
- Rockies
- Reds
- A’s
- Blue Jays
- Yankees
- Brewers
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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