Happy Friday, folks.
Friday brings a big ol’ 12-game MLB DFS slate with a whole lotta everything. I suppose some of these pitchers qualify as aces. A former ace – Gerrit Cole – is set to pitch in the majors for the first time in a while, and there’s some sketchy weather in Baltimore and Atlanta.
This will probably take forever to write, so I’m not going to waste a bunch of time on the intro. I will say if you haven’t tried our MLB DFS optimizer yet, wtf are you waiting for? You can roll with a 7-day free trial before the $29.99/month subscription kicks in.
Onward!
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/22)
- Jacob deGrom ($9,500, at LAA)
- Logan Henderson ($9,200, vs. LAD)
- Payton Tolle ($8,900, vs. MIN)
- Logan Gilbert ($8,700, at KC)
- Gerrit Cole ($8,500, vs. TB)
- Davis Martin ($8,400, at SF)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,300, vs. PIT)
- Michael Soroka ($8,000, vs. COL)
- Eury Perez ($7,300, vs. NYM)
- Connor Prielipp ($7,000, at BOS)
- Grayson Rodriguez ($6,900, vs. TEX)
- Noah Cameron ($6,800, vs. SEA)
- Jack Flaherty ($6,300, at BAL)
- Chris Bassitt ($5,500, vs. DET)
This is a huge mess of pitchers, and you can argue they’re not the only playable options. For the sake of the rest of my day, this is probably the pitcher pool I’ll roll with.
Even with so many pitchers, we’ll probably see some pretty extreme ownership on Jacob deGrom, who gets a stellar matchup on the road against a flatlining Angels bunch. Whatever’s left of Luis Severino struck out 10 of these dweebs yesterday, and deGrom has a lot more left in the tank than Severino. On the season, we’re looking at a 30.5% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate, and a 2.81 SIERA. The Angels are the highest-strikeout team in the league (28%) vs. right-handed pitching.
I don’t have much to add. The Angels are almost all right-handed, and deGrom’s numbers vs. RHBs are close to impeccable. $9,500 is also not particularly cumbersome. He’ll probably be my highest-exposed pitcher.
I guess things get interesting after that. Logan Henderson looks entirely legit, with a 32.4% strikeout rate along with low walks and a 2.79 SIERA. The issue is he’s $9,200 and facing the Dodgers, and I don’t know if we need to be paying $9,200 for a guy facing the Dodgers on this slate. Fine large-field play, but that’s as far as I’d go there.
Payton Tolle is another child with some solid numbers (26.1% Ks, 6.1% walks, 3.54 SIERA) facing the Twins at home. The Twins aren’t the best strikeout matchup, but they’ve also hit for absolutely zero power (.118 ISO) against left-handed pitching. Tolle has impressively struck out more righties than lefties in the majors, which is a useful skill against an entirely right-handed Minnesota offense. I like it.
We’re only 4 pitchers in, and we’re already to our 2nd Logan. Logan Gilbert gets a park downgrade going into Kansas City, a park that also suppresses strikeouts. Gilbert’s 24.7% K-rate this season is more in line with his career rate (26.1%) than last year’s 32.3% mark, which kinda makes last year look flukier with each passing outing. Gilbert has also just been wildly unlucky this season. His ERA is over a full run higher than his excellent 3.41 SIERA.
The Royals aren’t the most imposing lineup, and I think Gilbert’s regression is coming at some point. I think he’s a fine play with $8,700 likely still being a discount, just not necessarily a priority, either.
Gerrit Cole was probably the game’s best pitcher a few years ago, but the strikeouts have been on the decline over the past couple of years, and he’s a total wild card coming off Tommy John. He should be pretty full from a leash standpoint after some minor-league tuneups. The Rays only have like 3 hitters you’re nervous about, though they’re also high-contact (18.7% Ks vs. RHP). I doubt Cole has enough of a ceiling to be a great option on this slate. Rather play others in this range.
One of those Others is Davis Martin, who Just Keeps Doing It. Martin gets a park boost going into San Francisco, and his 27.4% K-rate is easily the highest of his career. He’s also shown greatly improved control. His 1.61 ERA isn’t remotely sustainable, but a 3.01 SIERA is still damn good. The Giants have been putrid offensively – especially at home – and it’s a pretty high-strikeout lineup after Jung Hoo Lee and Luis Arraez at the top. I’d be reluctant to play Martin if he were $9,500, but he’s $8,400.
The slate goes on forever, and the party never ends. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout rate is down to 22.9% this year, but he’s still not walking anyone or allowing much damage. Pittsburgh is an average offense through-and-through, and Gausman’s $8,300 salary factors in his wide range of outcomes. He’s a perfectly fine play, I just don’t have a ton of conviction about a guy with a 22.9% K-rate.
Michael Soroka may be the chalk partner with Jacob deGrom at just $8,000 at home vs. Colorado. The Rockies aren’t quite as awful against righties as they are against lefties, but, unlike Eduardo Rodriguez, Soroka is a pretty good pitcher (26.1% Ks, 6.6% walks). I suppose a lineup with a handful of lefties could prove troublesome for Soroka given his 11.5% barrel rate vs. LHBs, but I’m not overly concerned. He’s just a great play.
Eury Perez is the same guy he’s always been with some strikeouts (25.2%) along with high walks (12.2%) and hard contact (14.3% barrels). The Mets’ offense has been disappointing (.130 ISO, .294 wOBA), and only a couple of their hitters have shown much patience. Perez is fine. Not a guy I’ll have a ton of.
Like his mound opponent, Connor Prielipp is a young lefty striking out an impressive number of RHBs (31.6%) through his first few turns in a major-league rotation. Boston has a few guys absolutely raking lefties on the year, but overall, it’s been a poor offense. Prielipp is yet another guy to add to the pile if you’re multi-entering.
I’ll be interested to see how the Grayson Rodriguez Thing goes for the Angels, but he’s only made one start so far, and it didn’t go well. The Rangers are not the Dodgers, and $6,900 is a nice price tag, I just don’t think we need it.
Noah Cameron was lucky last year, and that luck seems to have run out this year. I will note the Mariners have been suckin’ a lot of ass, but I’d rather play someone else if I’m punting.
Jack Flaherty and Chris Bassitt will face each other in Baltimore. Flaherty continues to rack up Ks against righties (27.7%), but he’s been undone by a silly high walk rate all year. The O’s only have 4 right-handed bats in the projected lineup, but they’ve also been a very high-K lot this year (25.4%). They do have some patient hitters capable of getting Flaherty into some hot water, but he’s also just $6,300. Sadly, I will play him.
Sadly, I will also probably play Bassitt, who’s only $5,500 on the other side of this one. The issue here is Bassitt’s strikeout rate is all the way down to just 14.8%, and he’s getting worked by left-handed bats while stifling RHBs. The Tigers are mostly crappy hitters, but 6 of them might hit from the left side. The salary makes Bassitt playable, but, officially, I prefer Flaherty.
SP Rankings
- deGrom
- Soroka
- Tolle
- Gilbert
- Martin
- Gausman
- Flaherty
- Perez
- Bassitt
- Henderson
- Cole
- Prielipp
- Rodriguez
- Cameron
Top MLB DFS Stacks for May 22
- DBax (vs. Tomoyuki Sugano)
- Mariners (at Noah Cameron)
- Yankees (vs. Nick Martinez)
- Braves (vs. Miles Mikolas)
- Blue Jays (vs. Bubba Chandler)
Lots of decent offense leaves us with limited offense to love, but here we are. Weather permitting, I assume the chalk offense will be the Braves against Miles Mikolas, who inexplicably keeps getting starts for the Nationals. Mikolas isn’t prejudiced; he’ll just serve up dongs against anyone and everyone. I will note he actually has a 56% groundball rate vs. LHBs, so, hey, we found a plus skill!
Doesn’t really matter, does it? Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna Jr. aren’t hitting the ball on the ground much to begin with. Michael Harris has a bit of a groundball lean, but he’s also smoking right-handed pitching this season (20.2% barrels, .241 ISO). Mike Yastrzemski, Dom Smith, and even Mauricio Dubon have hit well this season, too.
Bubba Chandler is among the Pirates’ best prospects, but he’s been horrendous this season (19% strikeouts, 15.9% walks, 9.1% barrels). Chandler’s numbers are considerably worse against lefties. Unfortunately, the only LHBs of note here are Daulton Varsho and Jesus Sanchez, though Andres Gimenez has been passable. Kazuma Okamoto is striking out a lot against righties, but he’s pounding them (.226 ISO) when he gets bat to baseball. Given Chandler’s mid strikeout stuff this season, I like him enough. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are always viable in full stacks.
DBax Chalk Night went horribly last night, but we can go back to the well here against another crappy right-hander, Tomoyuki Sugano. He’s been respectable against righties, while left-handed hitters (.306 ISO, 18% barrels) have wasted him. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte should have no problems here. Geraldo Perdomo and Ildemaro Vargas are less exciting, but certainly fine in stacks. Flyball righties – Nolan Arenado, Lourdes Gurriel, Ryan Waldschmidt) are good plays to combat Sugano’s groundball stuff vs. RHBs.
Nick Martinez won’t strike anyone out, but he also won’t walk anyone, and he’s been excellent at dodging barrels. I don’t love the Yanks as a result, but it’s an elite offense that generally profiles better against RHP. The usual suspects are the best plays, as always.
I believe I said the Mariners “have sucked a lot of ass” earlier. It’s true, but it can also be said of Noah Cameron. Cameron’s rare reverse split from the left side makes it a sneaky-good spot given Seattle’s lefty-heavy lineup. Josh Naylor, Colt Emerson, and Cole Young are the most attractive lefties, but I’m certainly getting to Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena, too.
Other Stuff I Like
- Padres RHBs vs. Springs – Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos With A Deep Drive To Left Field
- Rays vs. Cole – Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz
- Marlins LHBs vs. Myers – Kyle Stowers, Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards
- Juan Soto vs. Perez
- Nationals LHBs vs. Elder – James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Daylen Lile
- Tigers LHBs vs. Bassitt – Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Colt Keith
- Orioles LHBs vs. Flaherty – Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser
- Dodgers LHBs vs. Henderson – Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker
- Rangers vs. Rodriguez – Evan Carter, Brandon Nimmo, Ezequiel Duran, Josh Jung, Jake Burger
- Rockies LHBs vs. Soroka – Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield
- Shea Langeliers & Brent Rooker vs. Buehler
- Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery vs. McDonald
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Braves
- DBax
- Blue Jays
- Mariners
- Rangers
- Yankees
- Orioles LHBs
- Tigers LHBs
- Nationals LHBs
- Dodgers LHBs
- Padres RHBs
- Marlins LHBs
- Rockies LHBs
- Rays
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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