Hello! It’s Tuesday, but it’s a Tuesday after a holiday, so it feels more like a Monday. I went to Dodger Stadium last night, which was a good time. I was thinking for most of the game that stacking the Dodgers at home is starting to feel like a ponzi scheme, but they ultimately figured it out after getting stifled for most of the game by *checks notes* Tanner Gordon.
The highlight of the game was when the Dodgers brought Kyle Hurt out of the bullpen. They dimmed the stadium lights for his entrance as “What Is Love?” by Haddaway blared through the speakers. Took me a second to get the reference, but ultimately, it dawned on me. Hurt then proceeded to serve up one of the longest dongs I have ever seen in my life to Ezequiel Tovar, of all people.
Anyway, enough about the past, we’re here to look to the future. Okay, I guess one more thing about the past. We’ve had quite a few of the Discord faithful take down GPPs over the last week, and a few have credited our brand-new MLB DFS sims for helping with their process. Regardless of your experience level, I think you’ll have a good experience if you try it out, which you can do on a free 7-day trial before the $29.99/month subscription fires up.
Alright, now we’ll look at tonight’s slate.
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/26)
- Cam Schlittler ($10,500, at KC)
- Chase Burns ($10,000, at NYM)
- Kyle Harrison ($9,700, vs. STL)
- Joe Ryan ($9,000, at CHW)
- Jack Leiter ($8,100, vs. HOU)
- Sandy Alcantara ($8,000, at TOR)
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600, at SF)
- Aaron Nola ($7,200, at SD)
- Tyler Mahle ($6,800, vs. AZ)
- Sean Burke ($6,600, vs. MIN)
- Eric Lauer ($6,300, vs. COL)
- Spencer Miles ($6,000, vs. MIA)
- David Peterson ($5,700, vs. CIN)
There is a very deep pool of viable pitchers on this slate, and you can certainly argue for a few others not named above. We’ll start with Cam Schlittler and Chase Burns, a couple of children priced in the $10,000 range for matchups on the road in Kansas City and Queens, respectively.
Schlittler has looked a little wobbly lately compared to how he started the season, but the guy still has a 1.50 ERA, a 29.6% K-rate, and a significantly improved 5.1% walk rate to begin 2026. A 1.50 ERA is basically never sustainable, and Schlittler will face a pesky Royals offense in a park that suppresses Ks. Kansas City has a trio of high-strikeout bats toward the bottom of the order, which only drives the projected lineup’s strikeout rate to 21.3% vs. RHP.
I’m not exactly terrified of the matchup overall, given the Royals’ lack of punch, but $10,500 is a hefty price tag. Fine GPP play, I just don’t think we need it.
Boo-urns gets a similar matchup, albeit in a more pitcher-friendly park at Citi Field. The Mets’ team strikeout rate is similar to that of the Royals, while they pack even less punch (.123 ISO, .285 wOBA vs. RHP). Burns’ 28.2% strikeout rate is similar to Schlittler’s. He has allowed a little more power – especially vs. left-handed hitters – and the Mets may have 5 LHBs in there against him. I’m just not worried about it, as Juan Soto is really the only hitter in the entire lineup with great numbers. Burns can walk Soto 3 times and still turn in a score you can’t live without, so I prefer him for $500 less than Schlitty.
Kyle Harrison is another breakout ace in his first season with Milwaukee. Harrison’s K-rate is up to 32.2%, and he’s only allowed a skimpy .096 ISO with a .262 wOBA overall. The Cardinals’ lineup looks like that of the Mets. Jordan Walker looms as a threat, but he’s also one of St. Louis’ higher-strikeout bats (28.3% vs. LHP). Overall, STL has just a .129 ISO against lefties. While it’s not a great matchup for strikeouts, Harrison’s swinging strike rate of nearly 15% makes his gaudy K-rate look sustainable. Harrison is also $9,700, so he gets the nod as my overall SP1.
Joe Ryan is good. His 27.1% strikeout rate isn’t far below the slate’s aces. His 6.2% walk rate is in line with his career number, and he’s held hitters to a .107 ISO and .250 wOBA overall. I will note Ryan is still quite splitsy. Most of his Ks (31.4%) come against right-handed hitters, while he’s also allowing a 13.1% barrel rate to lefties despite not yielding much actual damage thus far. Chicago is an interesting mix of Ks (23.5%) and lefties, as Ryan will potentially face 7 of them this evening. Only a couple of those LHBs are any good, however. I’m okay with Ryan, I just think his $9,000 salary is awkward relative to the slate.
Emerson Hancock has pitched very well this season; I just see no need to risk it with a guy in Sacramento. I’d rather take the extra $400 discount with Jack Leiter, who’ll face the Astros for the 2nd time in his last 3 turns. Leiter’s splits are similar to Ryan’s. Plenty of strikeouts (30.9%) against his fellow righties, though lefties (14.9% barrels, 20.3% Ks, 10.9% walks) have given him trouble. We know Houston’s mostly right-handed, with only 3 LHBs in the projected order, and Yordan Alvarez is the only menacing one. I’m good with Leiter in any format.
Sandy Alcantara? I have no need for a guy with a 16% strikeout rate. Eduardo Rodriguez mowed down the poor Rockies in his last start, and tonight he’ll get a park boost going into San Francisco. E-Rod’s numbers really aren’t good (17.4% Ks, 9.3% walks), but the Giants have also been putrid (.119 ISO, .307 wOBA) vs. southpaws. I expect Rodriguez to turn in a fine outing here, but this slate has lots of cheaper options.
One of them is Aaron Nola, who gets a park bump of his own going into Petco. Nola’s no longer in his prime, but his 3.85 SIERA and 4.75 xERA tell us his 6.04 ERA is unlucky. Nola’s plus skills these days is strikeouts against RHBs (26.3%) along with low walks. He’s fallen apart completely against lefties, but the Padres only have a couple of those in the lineup. The Pads are also a pretty high-K cohort these days (23.3%) without a ton of thunder. It makes me a little queasy, but I like Nola for the matchup and price ($7,200).
Tyler Mahle will toe the rubber opposite E-Rod in San Francisco. This is another veteran with an ERA of over 6.00, but a sub-4.00 SIERA. Mahle’s getting a respectable number of Ks (23.6%), but a 9.2% walk rate and an ugly .347 BABIP allowed have been his undoing. There’s nothing truly plus about the matchup against the DBax (19.4% Ks, 9.5% walks), but Mahle is cheap, he’s in a great pitcher’s park, and he’s simming pretty well as of this writing.
Sean Burke will turn in the occasional solid outing, but I think he’s an average pitcher in an average matchup against the Twins. Large-field consideration only. Eric Lauer is back in our lives, this time in a Dodger uniform. That means he has the benefit of facing the Rockies away from Colorado. The flip side is that Lauer was horrendous earlier in the season with the Blue Jays (5.28 SIERA, 16% Ks, 9.9% walks). Of course, the flip side of the flip side is the Rockies (30.1% Ks, .106 ISO) are probably the worst offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. This will be Lauer’s team debut, and Dave Roberts likes to play with his bullpen. I think 5 innings of Lauer is probably your ceiling, but 5 innings of a $6,300 lefty against the Rockies is worth keeping in the player pool.
The Blue Jays continue to build up Spencer Miles, who threw a season-high 63 pitches last time out against the Yankees. Miles has actually pitched pretty well (24.6% Ks, 50.6% groundballs), while Miami’s offense is pretty mediocre (.141 ISO vs. RHP). While I think Lauer can probably give you 80-90 pitches, Miles is probably topping out at 70-75. I prefer Lauer when you factor in matchups, but Miles is playable.
Lastly we have Formerly Good Pitcher David Peterson, yet another guy who’s dealt with rotten luck to begin the season. The 5.03 ERA looks bad, but a 3.67 SIERA gives reason for optimism. Peterson is still keeping the ball on the ground 52% of the time, while he’s about average from a Ks standpoint. There are strikeouts available in the Cincinnati lineup (24.2%), but they’ve also hit for a ton of power (.241 ISO) against lefties. There is obvious risk, but the risk is mitigated by the ballpark and Peterson’s $5,700 salary. Peterson’s leash is probably on par with Lauer’s, and he’s awfully affordable.
SP Rankings
- Kyle Harrison
- Chase Burns
- Jack Leiter
- Cam Schlittler
- Aaron Nola
- David Peterson
- Eric Lauer
- Joe Ryan
- Tyler Mahle
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Spencer Miles
- Sean Burke
- Sandy Alcantara
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- A’s (vs. Emerson Hancock)
- Mariners (at Luis Severino)
- Yankees (at Bailey Falter)
- Dodgers (vs. Kyle Freeland)
- Reds (at David Peterson)
The Mariners-A’s game will probably be the first stop for bats. Hancock and Severino have occasionally pitched well, but this is the best hitting environment on the board, and it’ll likely be chalk. Hancock has ramped up the Ks this year to hitters from both sides, while lefties (11.9%) are still barreling him up a decent amount. Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Carlos Cortes shake out pretty well here with the platoon advantage, while the cheap pitching makes it easier to justify paying for Shea Langeliers. Brent Rooker would be the preferred No. 5.
The Mariners did damage last night, and Severino has struggled in this park since joining the A’s. He remains more attackable with left-handed hitters (12.1% barrels, .364 wOBA). JP Crawford, Luke Raley, Colt Emerson, Josh Naylor, Dom Canzone, and Cole Young will all swing it from the preferred side of the plate. Severino can generate some groundballs vs. RHBs, so it’s not necessarily an ideal spot for Julio Rodriguez or Randy Arozarena. Still fine with them in stacks, of course.
Bailey Falter won’t have a long leash for the Royals, but he’s really struggled early in the season. Righties have always had more success against him. The Yankees don’t profile as well vs. LHP, but Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Volpe are the standouts. All of Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Cody Bellinger have hit for power against same-handed pitching, plus Falter likely won’t be on the mound for a long time, either.
The Dodgers are another offense that looks a little better vs. RHP, but, obviously, you can always stack them. Kyle Freeland was a solid groundball pitcher in the past, but even that seems to have dried up. He still has solid control and generally avoids barrels, but I’m fine playing against him and the Rockies’ poor bullpen. Only Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have double-digit barrel rates vs. LHP this year, though Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, and Miguel Rojas (???) aren’t far off the pace. Kiké Hernandez has pinch-hit risk, but he’s also fared pretty well against lefties over the years.
I think Peterson may attract some ownership thanks to the cheap salary, so playing the Reds against him is an interesting leverage angle. These guys have absolutely murdered left-handed pitching. Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, Spencer Steer, JJ Bleday, and Dane Myers all have barrel rates of at least 13.8%, while EDLC, Stewart, and Suarez are all north of 20%. The park stinks, but the numbers don’t lie.
Other Stuff I Like
- CHW LHBs vs. Ryan – Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery
- Yordan Alvarez vs. Leiter
- Jordan Walker vs. Harrison
- Juan Soto vs. Burns
- MIL LHBs vs. McGreevy – Christian Yelich, Brice Turang
- SD LHBs vs. Nola – Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets
- PHI LHBs vs. Vasquez – Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh
- Casey Schmitt vs. E-Rod
- DBax vs. Mahle – Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte
- COL RHBs vs. Lauer – Hunter Goodman, Tyler Freeman
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Mariners
- A’s
- Dodgers
- Reds
- Yankees
- Phillies LHBs
- White Sox LHBs
- Padres LHBs
- Brewers LHBs
- Rockies RHBs
- DBax
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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