After a tiny 4-game slate last night, we are welcome by a big NBA DFS main slate at DraftKings on Wednesday night. The Core was solid yesterday, as Jokic was Jokic, Devin Carter crushed, and Patrick Baldwin was in plenty of winning lineups.
Let’s keep the good times rollin’, as there is already a very clear path forming. You definitely want to avoid some traps and play the right studs, however, so I’ll carve out the best NBA DFS picks to build around, touch on the best game environments, and point you to some elite GPP pivots. Thank you to our loyal subs, and welcome to the new ones. Remember, it’s just $5.99 for EVERYTHING on the site once you pay for this post. Let’s build!
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays that are garnering lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
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