The Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers wrap up Super Wild Card Weekend on Monday night, which probably makes for a pretty week NFL DFS product.
If we are just approaching this DraftKings Showdown slate with logic, Houston’s defense is going to stifle Aaron Rodgers and co., and we should largely be focusing on the defenses, kickers, and the Texans offense.
Usually if we can confidently cut away half of the player pool, we have a clearer path to victory. But is it that simple? Not really. It rarely is in Showdown slates, plus there are actually parts of this matchup that make me want to go against the grain.
Either way, you’re here for some MNF DFS picks, and that’s what you’ll get. Let’s dive in!
Texans vs. Steelers Captain Picks
- Nico Collins
- CJ Stroud
- DK Metcalf
This game has a 38.5 total, which is absurdly low. It’ll be outside in the cold at night, while the Texans own the 2nd best scoring defense with a good run defense and an elite pass rush. They aren’t all that reliable offensively, of course, as they can’t run the ball and even their passing game can be unreliable.
That said, the Texans undeniably have the softest matchup in this game, making the explosive Nico Collins and Stroud the two best Captain plays. They have the two best projections and they’re carrying the most ownership – both understandable.
The only Steelers player that projects “well” is DK. He returns from a 2-game suspension and game script could offer volume. He has a nice ceiling due to his raw speed, but game flow and talent still don’t make him a super enticing play.
Jaylen Warren and Kenny Gainwell are close, but rank behind him. The matchup is bad for them, but if you have to Captain Steelers, those are the three guys to target consistently.
Aaron Rodgers could obviously come and ball out at home, but the game doesn’t set up very well for him. He’s 42 and can’t run very well, so you’d be betting on him having a pretty big passing day, whether it be with a lot of yardage (unlikely) or multiple scores (not completely impossible).
I will say that Woody Marks is pulling the third most ownership right now, but I’m not high on him. If you want to go with game flow and the fact that Houston is projected to score more points, then he’s fine. But Nick Chubb is back and Marks has topped 11 fantasy points just once in his last seven games.
MNF DFS GPP Picks for the Captain Spot
- Kenny Gainwell
- Calvin Austin
- Pat Freiermuth
- Texans Defense
- Jayden Higgins
There is actually (seriously) a path to success for Pittsburgh. If they can execute their offense while avoiding silly mistakes and dumb turnovers, they could move the ball on this Texans defense.
The big advantage is the way they operate, getting the ball out quickly and doing damage after the catch. Houston obviously could just sniff these plays out and force third and long situations, but it negates the impact of their pass rush. That alone gives the Steelers a shot in a night game at home.
Those quick, short area plays benefit guys like Metcalf, the tight ends, and the running backs. Gainwell has been the big benefactor in that regard and he’s pulling just 4% ownership in the Captain. Jaylen Warren can easily pop off just as well, but I prefer Gainwell due to the matchup.
I also like Freiermuth even more than before, as fellow tight end Jonnu Smith popped up on the injury report and Darnel Washington is done for the year. Houston has weirdly struggled against TEs lately, so perhaps there is something there for Pat to exploit. He is dirt cheap and even if I’m wrong, a negative game script could benefit him in the second half.
With everyone focused on DK or the RBs for the Pittsburgh side, my favorite contrarian Steelers captain might be Austin. He caught the clutch game-winner in week 18 and with Metcalf back he is going to go overlooked both by Houston and by the field. He is not a safe play and betting on a score or a big play is tough against this defense, but he is not going to face Houston’s top cover man and his speed is something the Texans could struggle with on the outside.
If you want to keep it chalky in terms of betting on Houston, then let’s consider their non-Nico WRs. I think it starts with Higgins, who has been breaking out with 10+ fantasy points in five of his last nine games. Pittsburgh is a very friendly matchup for receivers, so if nobody wants to play him in the Captain spot, I will.
Christian Kirk and Jaylen Noel have the ability to get behind the defense, too, so they will also be guys I look to, but to a lesser extent.
The game total is brutal and the Texans should win. Even if you think Pittsburgh hangs around or pulls off the upset, they project to score previous few points. Sacks and turnovers could easily be coming in droves, too. Houston’s defense is a staple of MNF Showdown lineups, but they don’t project to be popular in the Captain slot. I’ll be over the field.
My Monday Night Showdown Core
- Nico Collins
- CJ Stroud
- Texans D
I think building around this core makes a lot of sense. Houston should win this game, it’s low-scoring, and the best way to attack the Steelers D is through the air. The trick is deciding who to play from the Steelers side and who to Captain.
I will definitely Captain all three of the core play options, but I’d mix in the Steelers picks I’ve discussed, and also rotate in the secondary Texans WRs, starting with Higgins.
In general, I think Texans heavy is the wise approach. That said, I do think there is some wiggle room for Pittsburgh to not just be competitive, but possibly pull off the upset. Houston has thrived off of generating pressure and forcing turnovers, but two of the things the Steelers are very good at are limiting turnovers and preventing bad sacks.
Aaron Rodgers has looked dialed in lately. Save for a stinker against the Browns in week 17, he’s looked quite good, helping the Steelers go 4-1 down the stretch. Nobody expects the Steelers to win, either, so this “us against the world mentality” at home is something we shouldn’t ignore.
This isn’t to say Houston will lose, but that we should definitely entertain going over-weight on Steelers in some spots if entering a lot of MNF DFS Showdown lineups. Good luck!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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