It was a mixed bag for the NBA DFS Core last night. Javon Small was a strong value and paid off, while Nikola Jokic was pretty necessary (88 fantasy points!!). Danny Wolf (20) and Trendon Watford (11), however, definitely missed the mark.
The NBA product is bad right now, and Friday night isn’t much different with a whopping FIVE games carrying spreads north of 13. It’s gross out there, but the best way to combat that is by taking fewer risks and scaling back into smaller contests and SEs. Let’s go over the best plays to start your build process with, and I’ll also paint a clear picture of how to approach tonight’s slate at DraftKings.
🏀 New to DFS? Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Duren and Grizzlies.
- Best value plays: Clint Capela. Sengun out. He’s $3.1k, should start, and projects almost as well as the other value centers.
- Top game to attack: Pelicans vs. Rockets. In terms of high total (229.5), fast pace, and tight spread, this game has it all.
- Top stud: KD. Then Brunson. No Sengun or KAT. I’m just playing them together.
- Blowout risks: Everywhere. Almost every game features a team that played last night and only two games have a spread below 10 points. It’s ugly out there, folks.
NBA DFS Core Plays for Friday
- Clint Capela ($3.1k)
- Kevin Durant ($8.8k)
- Jalen Brunson ($9.1k)
- Mitch/Bagley
Update: KAT and Hart are doubtful. Brunson looks like the best play on the board. Mitch Rob is a great value. Removed Bagley and replaced with Capela. You can still pair Clint with Bagley/Mitch/PistonsValueCenter but Capela (assuming he starts) projects way too well. There’s a possibility Capela 1. doesn’t start or 2. only plays like 15 minutes but they also only have Jeff Green to roll out there, aside from going small. I’m going to risk it at this cheap price. KD obviously looks great with Sengun out. Center/center pairing will be popular. I don’t feel inclined to pay for any expensive centers on this slate, though, so I am just going to do it. I lean Mitch over Bagley due to matchup. Reed/Stewart would be in that conversation if Duren is ruled out.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
It’s early and guys like Dean Wade are in the optimal at the moment. Yeah. It’s ugly out there! I’ll refrain from committing to any values right now, save for Bags. Bagley is a good per minute player and should start and push for 25-30 minutes with Gafford likely sidelined.
Bagley still isn’t a safe play, as he has to contend with Evan Mobley and the Cavs. But he’s still the best value on the board.
KD, Amen, Reed, and even Tari and Jabari are all going to look fantastic if Sengun sits. The matchup with the Pels is so good that I’d have interested even if Sengun is active.
Given some injury news we’re waiting on, it could still be another Memphis night, while we may have interested in Knicks before the night is done.
- 🟢 SAFE KD and Brunson seem quite safe. Blowout risk is the chief concern with Brunson’s game.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST I think given all of the value that 2 value centers paired together makes sense, but they’re all volatile.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/13
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
- Cavs vs. Mavs (237.5 total)
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons (232.5 total)
- Pelicans vs. Rockets (229.5 total)
It’s a small slate so you don’t need to force stacks, but right now the Pels vs. Rockets game looks the most appealing. It has a little bit of everything; value, pace, high total, top end options.
Sneaky GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Devin Booker ($8.9k)
- Jalen Duren ($7.9k)
- Trey Murphy ($7.6k)
It’s early, so trusting ownership is tough. Once injury news drops we’ll have a clearer picture as to who is chalk or not. That said, low-owned Booker would be interesting. The date with Toronto (slow, good defensively) stinks and the Suns played last night, but he displayed a ceiling yesterday and has been on fire lately.
Duren is in a smash spot. The big questions are: foul trouble, minutes, and blowout risk. Nobody the Grizz can throw at him can out-rebound or contain him. If Duren gets anything close to 30 minutes he may crush this price tag.
Adding Murphy just because I have to think these Pels studs don’t get ownership. Amen will also be on Dejounte (I assume), which would in theory free up Murphy to wreck. All the Pels project poorly but I have 3 Rockets so I am running it back with one. Pick your poison, I choose Murphy.
Update: Duren is Q. That alone – plus all the other obvious plays and value at C – make him a very fun GPP play if he’s in.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed by an 5-game slate, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. Three games tonight — Cleveland/Dallas, Memphis/Detroit, and New York/Indiana — have 13-point spreads. That means one team is expected to win by a lot. In blowout games, the losing team’s stars get pulled in the fourth quarter, costing you 6-8 minutes of usage when it matters most. The winner’s stars get pulled, too, once it’s over. Unless you have a clear read on which team blows the other out and you’re stacking that side, these games are traps.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? It’s important to balance role, matchup, projection, and blowout risk. But if we can get value via cheap players with somewhat locked in roles, we need to embrace it.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- High game totals tell you where the points are. The total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available. Tonight the Cavs/Mavs game (237.5) and Grizzlies/Pistons (232.5) are the two richest environments.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Cade Cunningham is the slate’s best projecting play, but he’s on a back-to-back and his game has a 15-point. Does that mean you can’t play him? No — his ceiling is still elite. But it’s a real consideration, and his ownership will be sky-high on a smaller slate that lacks reliable studs. Paying for studs in bad spots needs to be met with reasoning. In this case, paying for Cade to get those raw points on a slate lacking them might make sense.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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