Yesterday’s slate was horrendous for the NBA DFS Core. We still saw some people in in Discord, as most of the core plays were at least pretty chalky, so you could have survived with them even though they stunk.
The NBA Core had been ablaze, and mama told me there’d be days like that. I am digging this 7-game main slate for Wednesday, though, and already have a clear view of how to attack it. Just remember to consider contest selection and get different outside of the core. With that, let’s touch on Wednesday’s top NBA DFS picks, my favorite GPP pivots, and more. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Josh Giddey, Scottie Barnes, and Bucks.
- Best value plays: Pacers. Q Jax, Kobe, Slawson etc. Need starting lineup.
- Top game to attack: Bulls vs. Pacers. High 247.5 total and 3.5 pt spread.
- Top stud: Tyrese Maxey. Top projection, vs Wiz, and no Joel Embiid.
- Blowout risks: Kings/Raptors (12 pt spread), Bucks/Rockets (17.5), and Knicks/Grizz (14).
NBA DFS Top Picks for Wednesday
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9k)
- Tre Jones ($5.9k)
- Collin Sexton ($5.2k)
- Matas Buzelis ($7.2k)
Update: Giddey is out. Tre Jones, Sexton, and Buzelis all enter the core. Any Pacers as comebacks make sense. Brunson is out. KAT becomes the top spend of the slate. Josh Hart also looks good. Monito who the Knicks start at PG, as they could be a viable punt (Alvarado?). Bucks only have 8 guys. They don’t grade out that well, but Dieng/Trent are solid plays. You can punt with Antetokounmpo since he has to play at least a little.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Jackson leads several Pacers values that will look good. Just make sure he (or any Indiana players you use) starts. Smash spot versus Bulls and this game has a very high total and tight spread. Siakam looks excellent as well. You never know when Indy will sit or limit him, but the matchup is saliva-inducing.
Maxey without Embiid has been frustratingly bad for us this year, but the usage and matchup are there for the taking. I definitely see the merit in pivoting and playing someone like Scottie Barnes or Sengun instead, but there’s no denying how good he looks here.
Giddey is Q. If he’s out we’re loading up on Bulls. If he’s in, he’s a very tough fade in a great spot. Chicago pushes the pace at the 2nd fastest rate in the entire NBA and Indiana provides zero resistance.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/1
I am going to eat a lot of the chalk up top. There are absolutely some pivots to consider – especially given how bad Maxey Chalk has gone for us – but we can also just play the top guys and get different elsewhere pretty easily.
If I had to fade a chalky guy, it’d be Maxey. He seems to rarely work out when he should, plus that game does have a 13.5 point spread. Hit my GPP plays section for some ideas to gain instant leverage if you plan on fading.
- 🟢 SAFE – Giddey, Maxey, and Siakam. In theory, this trio looks amazing and should smash.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Jackson isn’t good and Indy does have some bodies, so he’s not fool proof.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/1
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Check out today’s best NBA DFS environments:
Monday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Jalen Johnson ($10.4k)
- Scottie Barnes ($9.1k)
JJ is my favorite GPP play because he’s a direct price pivot away from the popular Maxey. You are not actually sacrificing much here, as we know Jalen is the more reliable player. His projection is worse, but his true ceiling is as good as Maxey’s and his game has a 3.5-point spread.
Johnson is only $400 more and will be 1/3 as owned as Maxey, making him an elite tourney spend.
Barnes is questionable, so we’ll see what happens. But he’s been crushing and gets the Kings. They won’t be able to stop him at all, and right now he’s not pulling much own % due to my Core Play spends garnering a lot of interest.
Barnes works as a cheaper leverage play under Maxey, a more expensive play over Siakam, or a near-direct pivot away from Giddey. Right now I think my preferred strategy would be to target one of these guys over Maxey, rather than fading a healthy Giddey or Siakam in what I deem to be the game of the slate.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays that are garnering lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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