One of the gigs I have outside of the #DFSBuild is some freelance work for RotoGrinders. I mostly do NBA content over there, mainly on weekends. I have been doing the NBA Core Plays article on Mondays in November because the other guy who usually writes it on weekdays has a full plate during NFL season.
However, something that got lost in translation was that I was only supposed to do the Core Plays article for the first 3 Mondays of November. Last year I did every Monday in November, so I kinda just assumed that was the case again this month. Because I am illiterate, I wrote several thousand words’ worth of a Core Plays article that I will not get paid for and that nobody will ever read because the regular guy was on duty today.
However, my work will not be in vain, for I have decided to simply publish it on our own damn blog instead. This is taking on a different form than the usual Core Plays we do, as we break down every game on the slate over there. I’ll still list the core plays at the top, but you’ll also get bonus breakdowns today simply because I am a dumbass.
Enjoy.
DraftKings Core (Updated 5:45 ET)
- Derik Queen ($5,800)
- Deni Avdija ($9,300) OR Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500)
- Jaylon Tyson ($4,100)
FanDuel Core (Updated 5:41 ET)
- Derik Queen ($6,700)
- Reed Sheppard ($5,500)
- Jimmy Butler ($8,200)
Detroit Pistons (at IND)
The Pistons are a pretty good basketball team these days, as it turns out. Detroit has rattled off a league-high 12 consecutive wins heading into tonight clash in Indianapolis against a Pacers team that might be lucky to crack 12 wins all season. Indiana is getting a bit healthier, though Detroit is still a healthy 10.5-point favorite on the road. One issue for the Pacers is that the Pistons are also getting healthier. Only Marcus Sasser and Bobi Klintman remain sidelined for the visitors.
With such a deep rotation, only Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren are on my radar tonight. Indiana’s interior defense sans Myles Turner has been egregiously poor, so Duren (1.44 FP/minute) should have his way here. He’s pricey, but I like his chances of getting there if the Pacers can manage to keep the game competitive. Cunningham has topped 49 DK points in every game he’s played since the end of October. I think the matchup is a bit tougher for Cade, and we’re not getting any discounts with him these days.
Indiana Pacers (vs. DET)
The Pacers have a few more healthy bodies than they’ve had for much of the season, yet they’re still just 2-13 and likely staring at a lost season. It’s not the worst thing in the world, however, considering the quality of their young roster and the fact that the upcoming draft class is supposed to be terrific. They’re not openly tanking just yet, but the time will come. For now, they’re still without Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin, Johnny Furphy, Quenton Jackson, and Kam Jones.
Detroit is 2nd in the league in defensive rating, so it’s a brutal spot for these guys. If you want to completely fade the Pacers in all formats, I won’t blame you. Bennedict Mathurin (1.2 FP/minute) has played very well when healthy, albeit in a tiny 4-game sample all season. I don’t mind his $6,700 salary on DK for GPPs. Pascal Siakam (1.25 FP/minute) is getting a little cheaper, but he’s still expensive enough to be a secondary option, at best, in a difficult matchup. Andrew Nembhard is a fine leverage option if Mathurin garners some ownership. Jay Huff is popping a bit as a value in projections after logging 26+ minutes in back-to-back games. The Indiana center rotation has just been wildly volatile, making Huff and all the other Cs risky plays.
Cleveland Cavaliers (at TOR)
The Cavs picked up a pretty easy win over the Clippers at home last night, and tonight they’ll head north to face the Raptors in Canada. We’re calling Jarrett Allen questionable for this one after he missed the last 2 games with a finger injury. Ditto for Craig Porter Jr. with a hamstring, while Sam Merrill is doubtful, and Max Strus is out. We’ll see if Darius Garland pops up on the injury report. Cleveland is still a 2.5-point favorite here with a solid 119 total on the road.
I’m skeptical Allen will play tonight, but we shall see. If he doesn’t, Evan Mobley will draw another start at center with Jaylon Tyson picking up a spot start. Mobley goes from 1.19 FP/minute to 1.25 with Allen off the floor, and there’s upside worth chasing at his sub-$9,000 salaries. Donovan Mitchell (1.37 FP/minute) has consistently shown a higher ceiling than Mobley. He’s getting more and more expensive, but he’ll have the ball in his hands more if Garland is out. Garland is fadeable at his salaries, assuming he’d still be on a limit if he suits up.
Garland sitting would also likely put Lonzo Ball back into the starting lineup. He and Tyson are playable values, but neither is a standout relative to the slate.
Toronto Raptors (vs. CLE)
The Raptors are also playing for the 2nd time in as many nights after a triumph at home over the Nets last night. Jakob Poeltl missed that game, while RJ Barrett left early with a knee injury. We’re not expecting RJ to suit up, though Poeltl will return.
This is the first time one of the Raptors’ core 4 will have missed a game all season. Scottie Barnes (+7.1%) has gotten the biggest usage hike in the non-Barrett minutes, followed by Brandon Ingram (+3.1%) and Immanuel Quickley (+2%). All 3 of these guys grade out as very strong options, though I’ll likely roll with a max-2 of Barnes, BI, and IQ in tournament builds. Even Poeltl (+2.6%) is seeing extra usage without Barrett, and he continues to look underpriced on both sites, even if he doesn’t have the highest minutes ceiling.
We’ll see who starts in place of Barrett. Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter look like the likeliest replacements. I’d have much more interest in Shead in any scenario, as he’s the far more prolific per-minute producer (1.04 FP/minute without RJ). Walter would be playable as a starter at only a couple hundred bucks north of minimum salary on both sites, but the floor is low for a guy who’s super-reliant on his shots falling.
Dallas Mavericks (at MIA)
Ah, a rematch of the 2006 and 2011 NBA Finals! The stakes might just be a tad lower this time around, and the Mavericks are 8.5-point underdogs in Miami this evening. Injuries still rule the day for Dallas. Anthony Davis is doubtful. Dereck Lively, Kyrie Irving, and Dante Exum are still out, while Brandon Williams and Ryan Nembhard are questionable.
The Heat have been a fun team to target this season, as they’re still running at the league’s fastest pace. The issue? The Mavs are quite the terrible basketball team. Williams (24.8%), PJ Washington (23.6%), and Cooper Flagg (22.7%) are steady sources of usage, while D’Angelo Russell (29%) is always happy to let it fly off the bench. If Williams is out, D-Lo would look like a pretty good value in the $5,000 range. With everybody currently projected in, there’s not much to like. Washington ($6,700) and Daniel Gafford ($5,700) are fine enough values on FanDuel, but hardly priorities. The potential pace of the game should suit Flagg nicely, and he’s $6,900 with multi-positional eligibility on FD.
Miami Heat (vs. DAL)
The Heat are dealing with their own injuries. Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic are both doubtful for this one, while Terry Rozier is still out. They do have a reinforcement on the way, though, as Tyler Herro will make his season debut tonight. Miami’s 124.5 implied team total in this one is the 3rd-highest mark on the slate, trailing only Golden State and Chicago.
Herro likely cracks the Heat’s starting lineup, though he’ll surely be on a limit after undergoing ankle surgery during the offseason. He’s not really a consideration at his salaries as a result. Even with Wiggins out, Herro’s return will presumably sap some usage for the likes of Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. I still have some interest in Jaquez at $6,700 on FanDuel in GPPs.
The best option here is probably Bam Adebayo, who gets to face a Dallas frontcourt missing its best rim protectors in Davis and Lively. $7,800 for Bam, even with Herro back, looks appealing on DK, while he’s more of a large-field option at $8,400 on FD.
New York Knicks (at BKN)
The Knicks will leave the friendly confines of Manhattan and cross the Brooklyn Bridge for a showdown against the Nets in hostile territory this evening. I assume there will be more Knicks fans than Nets fans in the building, so I guess it’ll actually be more hostile for the home team. Regardless, this looks like a mismatch in New York’s favor, as they’re 13.5-point favorites over their lowly crosstown rivals in this one. Mitchell Robinson is questionable to play tonight due to an illness, while OG Anunoby and Landry Shamet are out.
Brooklyn is 29th in the NBA in defensive rating, and they’re playing on the 2nd half of a B2B after a loss last night in Toronto. Without Anunoby, Miles McBride should step back into the starting lineup. If Robinson is also out, we’ll probably see Josh Hart get a spot start. Jalen Brunson (33.3%) and Karl-Anthony Towns (28.7%) will handle most of the usage. It’s an elite matchup for both of them, and they project well at their price points. I probably wouldn’t play them together in a tournament build considering I’m hunting ultimate ceilings for them individually, and I’m skeptical they’d both get there in the same game at $9,000+ price points.
If Robinson plays, there isn’t much else to see here. Robinson, McBride, and Jordan Clarkson are neutral enough values on FD. Hart is priced up enough to be a tough sell even if he starts, though he’s worth sprinkling into the mix if you’re entering multiple lineups.
Brooklyn Nets (vs. NYK)
The Nets fell to just 3-13 on the season with last night’s loss in Toronto. Remarkably, there are still 2 teams in the East with worse records. Brooklyn has as many victories as the Pacers and Wizards combined. They’re still without Cam Thomas, Ben Saraf, and Haywood Highsmith as they welcome the Knicks into town tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. (30.5%) is enjoying his new role as the lead dog for this team. I never feel comfortable paying a premium for MPJ – as I consistently expect the Nets to get blown out – but he has been in outstanding form. The matchup also improves a bit without Anunoby out there to hound him. As usual, the only way I’ll play Porter is if I create a rule to run it back with someone on the other side. If Porter is going to hit a ceiling, the Nets have to keep the game close, and, likely, someone on the Knicks is also getting there.
I’m not too enthused about anyone else here. Nic Claxton would look a little more palatable if Robinson is out, though the Knicks have been a good interior defense even without him. Egor Demin has flashed a little something since his promotion into the starting unit, but he comes with an awfully low floor.
Denver Nuggets (at MEM)
The Nuggets are living up to their lofty preseason expectations. Denver is off to a stellar 12-4 start, and they’re tied with the Lakers for the 2nd-best record out West. They are banged up, however. Aaron Gordon will be out for the next month or so after a hamstring injury, while Christian Braun is still out with an ankle thing. Julian Strawther is also sidelined. Regardless, the Fightin’ Jokices are 9.5-point favorites tonight in Memphis over the basketballing calamity known as the Grizzlies.
In 165 minutes without Gordon and Braun, Nikola Jokic has a 35.9% usage rate alongside a 1.86 DK FP/minute average. Pretty good! He’s also $13,500 on DK and $12,800 on FD. Pretty expensive! We do not have Luka Doncic or anyone else of that caliber on this slate, so it’s a matter of whether you want to pay all the way up for the big man. There is always a lot of opportunity cost at center. I don’t think he’s a must if you’re only playing one lineup, but I’d like to be over the field in multi-entry.
Jamal Murray (27.2% usage, 1.06 FP/minute) is playing pretty well this season, and I like the spot against an up-tempo Memphis team. I think he’s an awesome play, though this is another max-1 situation for me in GPPs. Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones will start for the aforementioned injured Nuggets alongside Cameron Johnson. Watson (0.84 FP/minute) has been solid in that role, though we’ve seen Johnson spike a couple of good games lately following a tough start. I like them both individually with a slight lean toward Watson. Jones is a good defener, but he’s only averaging 0.45 FP/minute this season. I’d rather roll the dice with Bruce Brown off the bench, as he’s routinely topping 20 minutes in a reserve role.
Memphis Grizzlies (vs. DEN)
The Grizzlies are going nowhere fast, and it feels like it’s only a matter of time until they blow it up and smash the reset button. They’re sizable home ‘dogs against the Nuggets tonight as they continue to play without Ja Morant, Ty Jerome, Brandon Clarke, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Javon Small. Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable after missing consecutive games with a sore ankle.
JJJ has been disappointing, but I will stubbornly continue to chase a ceiling on FanDuel ($6,900) if he suits up. FD’s scoring system suits his game well, and his usage is up by 4.4% with Ja on the bench this season. If he’s out again, Santi Aldama would grade out pretty well at only $6,500 on FD, though $7,200 on DK is getting up there. Cedric Coward is among the league’s most impressive rookies, but he’s been playing on a minutes limit lately. I don’t think he’s a terrible play if Jackson sits again, though the minutes limit likely caps his ultimate upside.
Portland Trail Blazers (at MIL)
The Blazers have had a rough go of it lately, and now they’re dealing with a bunch of injuries. They went into OKC and got destroyed by the Thunder last night, though there isn’t much shame in that these days. They’re only 1.5-point underdogs in this one against a Milwaukee team still missing Giannis Antetokounmpo. Portland is without Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, Matisse Thybulle, Scoot Henderson, and Blake Wesley, while we’re also expecting Shaedon Sharpe to sit.
I didn’t have much interest in the Blazers’ value last night in that brutal matchup, but this is a much more favorable spot. Without Sharpe and Holiday, usage has primarily flowed through Deni Avdija (32.4%) and Jerami Grant (26.7%). Deni is becoming increasingly expensive, but he’s playing huge minutes every night and carrying this offense. He only logged 23 minutes last night in the blowout, so I’m all-in on Avdija in this one. Grant is a passable option in a starting role, he’s just rarely a guy who’ll supply much production beyond scoring.
Caleb Love was one of the chalkiest value pieces on last night’s slate, and he wound up failing quite miserably in 25 minutes off the bench. The minutes are the key, though, and he’s still affordable and will have a role tonight given the backcourt injuries. I’m fine with going back to the well here. Guys like Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan are decent fillers. Clingan has shown some upside over the past few games.
Milwaukee Bucks (vs. POR)
As mentioned, the Bucks continue to trudge along without their superstar, Taurean Prince. They’re also without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr., which, I guess, is impactful. They’re still favored tonight over Portland with a solid 117.5 total on their home floor.
Without Giannis and KPJ, Ryan Rollins is really cookin’. Rollins is now $8,000 on both sites, yet he still rates out as a phenomenal option, averaging 1.18 FP/minute on 25.8% usage in this role. There’s a path to mid-30s minutes in a pace-up matchup against a Blazers team missing its best perimeter defender in Holiday. Milwaukee has also been starting Bobby Portis next to Myles Turner in the frontcourt. Neither of them has shown a ton of upside, though I don’t mind Turner as a midrange value on both sites. Portis is easier to justify on FanDuel where he’s still only $5,700, though I likely wouldn’t play him with Turner in the same lineup.
Chicago Bulls (at NOP)
The Bulls had to sweat out a win over the Wizards at home in their last game, and they’re in a similar spot tonight on the road in New Orleans. Chicago has the highest total on the slate (125.5) even with some pending injury news. Nikola Vucevic was downgraded to questionable this morning. Kevin Huerter and Patrick Williams are also questionable, while Isaac Okoro, Dalen Terry, and Zach Collins are out.
That Vucevic news is rather important, especially since the Pelicans are such a favorable matchup for opposing centers. As has been the case for a few slates, he looks underpriced at $7,300 on FanDuel. If he’s out, it likely opens up a starting spot for Jalen Smith, who would subsequently become arguably the best play on the slate at any position. Smith already projects well as it is given his low-$4,000s price point and immense production in limited minutes off the bench. I’d only play him on FD if Vuc is out, however.
Vucevic sitting should also lead to elevated usage for Coby White, Josh Giddey, Ayo Dosunmu, and Matas Buzelis. I only really have interest in Giddey and White if Vucevic is a go, while Ayo is still a solid enough value in a starting role on FanDuel ($4,800).
New Orleans Pelicans (vs. CHI)
The Pelicans fired Willie Green just over a week ago, though things haven’t exactly gone great so far in the James Borrego Era. Still, he did make the wise move to start Derik Queen and fire Kevon Looney into the sun, so at least there’s that. New Orleans is an underdog at home here, but their 120 implied team total is still one of the highest marks on the slate. Zion Williamson is back after missing the last game, while Jordan Poole, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins, Karlo Matkovic, and Dejounte Murray are still out. Looney is questionable, for whatever it’s worth.
DK has been very slow in raising Queen’s salary. He’s up to $5,800…which is still just way too cheap for what he’s doing. Queen is contributing 1.19 FP/minute and regularly topping 30 minutes as a starter. His role hasn’t been negatively impacted by Zion’s presence, either. The center-only eligibility is a little limiting on such a large slate, but I’m probably just still playing him everywhere. The $6,800 FD salary is more appropriate, but you can slot him in at PF over there if you want. Great play in all formats, as usual.
The Bulls are still really giving up tons of points in the paint, so it is a nice spot for Williamson, too. He hasn’t yet topped 30 minutes since his return from a hamstring injury, but Zion is so productive that he’s still potentially useful even if he’s only logging around 30 minutes. He’s also underpriced in the low-$8,000s, so I like him quite a bit as a potential leverage play away from the chalkier Queen. Jeremiah Fears is another youngster who constantly projects as a positive value in his starting role. I’m less inclined to play Fears into ownership, however, as his ceiling outcomes have been heavily buoyed by some outlier steals performances. Trey Murphy may lose some usage with Zion back, but a mid-$7,000s price point in a potential shootout keeps him in the tournament player pool.
Houston Rockets (at PHO)
The last 3 games are only a part of the FD main slate. The Rockets won’t have Kevin Durant for a #revengegame tonight in Phoenix due to a personal matter. They’re also still down Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith, while Steven Adams is carrying a Q tag. Regardless, Houston is still a 6.5-point favorite in the desert.
KD’s absence should mean the first start of the season for Reed Sheppard. It was likely just a matter of time until Reed got the nod, anyway, but I’d expect him to replace Durant here for some offense. Reed is only $5,300 on FD and averaging a robust 1.25 FP/minute this season with Durant on the bench. He’s good! Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson should also see enhanced offensive roles. $10,000 for Sengun is cheap, but he’s a nice discounted alternative to Jokic. I have more interest in Thompson, who should be able to pay off the $8,100 salary against a Phoenix team without much rim protection.
Adams is always a tough sell on FD where you can only roster one center. I’d fade him, even if he projects pretty well. Jabari Smith Jr. could also see a usage boost without KD, and he’s a reasonable midrange play at $5,600.
Phoenix Suns (vs. HOU)
The Suns just keep winning basketball games, though they have had the chance to beat up on some lesser foes, including the shorthanded Spurs last night. That won’t be the case tonight. Jalen Green will miss this #revengegame of his own, while we’re exepcting Mark Williams to miss the 2nd night of the B2B. Grayson Allen is also unlikely to play, while we’re calling Ryan Dunn and Rasheer Fleming questionable.
Williams’ absence should mean a Nick Richards start with Oso Ighodaro supplying the backup minutes. Both are cheap, there’s just a lot else to prioritize at center. Devin Booker (31.5%) will handle most of the usage, while Dillon Brooks (revenge!), Collin Gillespie, and Royce O’Neale will play big supporting roles. Brooks is a decent option at $6,000 given his higher-usage role this season, while Gillespie ($5,700) still projects well off the bench. Gillespie is up to 1.12 FP/minute, and he’s topped 30 minutes in 3 of the last 4 games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (at SAC)
The Timberwolves are largely healthy these days, as Terrance Shannon Jr. remains the only player sidelined by injury. Minnesota gets a nice draw on the road tonight in Sacramento against a dusty and terrible Kings outfit. This is a matchup the Wolves should dominate, as they’re 9.5-point favorites on the road.
Anthony Edwards (1.32 FP/minute) and Julius Randle (1.38) are both having tremendous seasons. Randle ($8,900) is the less expensive of the two, and I think there’s more of a nuclear ceiling with him at his salary than there is with Ant at $9,600. You can always make individual cases for Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, and Jaden McDaniels, though they’re all secondary options at their respective positions on the 10-game FD docket.
Sacramento Kings (vs. MIN)
The Kings are one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they’re incredibly easy to break down. Even with Domantas Sabonis out, these guys are generally very easy fades. I don’t think Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan are the worst tournament dart throws at their mid-$6,000 price points, I just don’t see how you’d get to either of them with much volume or confidence.
Utah Jazz (at GSW)
The Jazz dropped a close one at home to the Lakers last night, and they’re in a difficult spot tonight in San Francisco. This game has the widest spread on the board (GSW -14.5), and with good reason. Walker Kessler and Georges Niang are still out, and we’ll see if anyone else pops up on the injury report. I doubt Kevin Love will play here, either.
I have minimal interest in Utah aside from a dusting of Jusuf Nurkic, Walker Kessler, and Keyonte George in GPPs. All 3 have played well to begin the season, and the minutes are generally safe. The issue with Nurkic is it’s tough to use him at C on FD, though I do think Markkanen looks a little cheap at $8,200.
Golden State Warriors (vs. UTA)
The Warriors, conversely, are annoying to see on the schedule. Steve Kerr insists on playing a 42-man rotation, yet the main guys generally project pretty well. Golden State has an astronomical 127 implied team total tonight at home, where they’ll face a Jazz team that lost at home to the Lakers in Utah just last night. Draymond Green is questionable with a foot injury. Jonathan Kuminga, Al Horford, and De’Anthony Melton are still out.
It’s an outstanding matchup, and we have seen Stephen Curry (34% usage, 1.41 FP/minute) pop off a time or two this season. $8,700 is a pretty appealing asking price given the spot. Jimmy Butler (1.22 FP/minute) does most of his offensive damage around the bucket, and rim protection is a weakness for the Jazz with Walker Kessler done for the year. Jimmy projects for quite a bit more ownership than Steph at a cheaper salary and at a shallower position. I’ll side with Curry if I’m only playing one of them. Green ($5,500) is a fair option if he plays, and he should be able to pay off that salary against a Jazz team that prefers to play at pace.
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