Hello! Just 4 games on the DK NBA DFS slate tonight, while we get 5 on FD, including the MEM-LAC game. James Harden and Anthony Davis are both questionable, which complicates things with those being the last 2 games on the slates. Looks like a pretty good slate overall, though, with no game featuring a spread of more than 5.5 points.
I’ll add some brief game breakdowns, as well.
DK Core Plays
- Kyle Filipowski
- PJ Washington
- Ryan Nembhard
FD Core Plays
- Kawhi Leonard
- Kyle Filipowski
- PJ Washington
- Ace Bailey
Pistons-Celts
This game features a couple of capable defensive teams with Detroit a 1.5-point ‘dog on the road. No injuries for the Pistons, either. Not really a fan of the spots for Cade or Duren, making them both lower-owned secondary options for GPPs. Tobias and Thompson pop as decent enough midrange values. Ausar is always seemingly popping, yet he’s topped 30 FPTs exactly once in the last month.
Boston has some news with Pritchard questionable with a neck issue. His absence opens up some usage for Brown/White. They don’t necessarily have to start Simons, but it’s fair to assume he’d see a few more minutes regardless. Could do something dumb like start Hauser with White effectively running point. I’m ok with Queta as a midrange C with occasional ceiling, this is just a tough spot for everyone. If Pritchard is in, I’d probably max-1 the Pritchard/White/Brown trio, and max-2 Simons/White/Brown if Pritch is out.
Raps-Heat
Pretty high-total game here, and both teams have fallen off in a big way after hot starts. RJ is still out for TOR but they’re otherwise healthy. Pace of the game should suit the main guys – Barnes, Ingram, IQ – pretty well. I think a max-2 there makes sense without Barrett, as 2 can def get there if the game really shoots out. Can always consider a cheap Poeltl despite the bad matchup in GPPs. Not really into the more expensive Shead, while Walter is still cheap enough to be playable in larger-field.
Miami is only without Larsson, so they’re pretty healthy. Prices are pretty appropriate on the Miami stuff. Bam at just under $8,000 on DK is solid enough, while Herro/Powell generate most of the usage on the wings. It’s a game worth targeting, you just kinda have to work to get to the Heat pieces at these salaries.
Mavs-Jazz
AD is questionable with the calf injury that kept him out a while, so we’ll see. Smash spot if he plays against Utah’s terrible Kessler-less frontcourt. Gafford is also Q and D-Lo remains out. Lots of minutes available for Williams/Nembhard in the backcourt. Williams looks like the slightly better value and he’s also coming with more projected ownership. Usage boosts for Williams, Flagg, and PJ if Davis is out, and even Naji looks like a decent value. Probably consider a max-2 Naji/Williams/Nembhard but I might eliminate that if Davis sits. If AD is in, maybe max-2 Davis/Flagg/Washington.
Utah won’t have Nurkic tonight so we’re probably getting another Filipowski start (RIP Tshiebwe). Pretty clear core play. Usage is steady for Lauri/George, while the minutes have been there for Ace in spite of a wide range of outcomes. Even Kevin Love could be in play here at a cheap salary as the backup C. Collier isn’t safe at all – as he can get rug-pulled if he sucks in his first rotation – but worth the risk in larger-field at only $3,200.
Rockets-Nuggets
Houston could get Tari (Q) back tonight with FVV and DFS still out. Denver’s defense has really cratered without AG and Braun. Sengun is always a decent cheap pivot away from Jok, while KD/Amen get matchup boosts without Gordon/Braun. Salaries probably dictate a max-1 of the main 3. Don’t hate Adams or Reed as cheaper options for tournaments.
As always, question is whether you want to pay nearly $13,000 for Jokic. Always a phenomenal play, but this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. Same is true of everyone else here. Murray’s ceiling has been there but he’ll probably get Thompson, while Johnson/Watson always look like similar plays. Slightly prefer the matchup for Cam with Houston typically protecting the paint pretty well.
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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