Wondering which plays are too good to be true, which chalk could be bad, or which expensive players are not worth the money? That’s where my NBA DFS fades post comes in.
I will definitely say that this isn’t foolproof. The very logic against some of these options actually can make them strong GPP plays, after all. But you can’t play everyone, and I have specific reasoning for not liking the following players going into Wednesday night at DraftKings.
If you want the plays I do like, build with my NBA DFS core plays for tonight. With that, let’s dive into some NBA DFS plays I’ll look to avoid.
Draymond Green, F, Warriors ($5.5k)
The issue here is ownership. Al Horford is a bit more appealing at $1.2k cheaper and Golden State may call upon his size if Nurkic plays for the Jazz. Either way, Green simply has not gotten it done for some time now, as he has failed to top even 30 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
Obviously a date with Utah could change that. However, Green is projecting to be chalky, has a low usage rate, and isn’t even getting a long leash in terms of minutes. I think he’s a good play based solely on price and matchup, but when looking at actual production and ownership, I don’t mind looking for a viable pivot.
Victor Wembanyama, C, Spurs ($10.2k)
You can play Wemby in GPPs, simply because you can do whatever you want in tourneys. But he’s a bad play in terms of value, as he comes in with a weak projection, remains somewhat limited, and has a terrible matchup on the road against the Rockets.
Individual matchups don’t guarantee anything and neither do past results. But Wemby struggled to just 30 fantasy points in this spot not that long ago.
Wemby can always make me eat my words, but he is the 2nd most expensive player on the board and ranks only 8th in terms of projection. He won’t be owned and he has an elite ceiling, but I’d much rather pay for Jaylen Brown or Spida in that price range, or force my way up to Luka.
Scottie Barnes, F, Raptors ($9.6k)
Once again, Barnes is viable in massive GPPs. He won’t be owned, as his price has gotten a bit out of control and he’ll be facing a good Knicks team.
The good news? He’s at home, he’s super contrarian, and we know he offers a huge ceiling. However, Toronto is pretty healthy these days, as he still has to contend with RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Brandon Ingram for usage.
If one of those guys sits, he suddenly becomes more viable. However, as things stand, he’s just a bad value as the 6th most expensive player, but coming in with the 16th best projection. That’s an easy fade for me unless his situation changes in a big way.
That does it for me. This is a big slate and if you’re strictly playing massive tourneys, then you can still use these guys if you want to. I won’t be playing them (or I will be going very under-weight), however, as they either feel like shaky chalk or just look like bad values based on price, projection, and matchup.
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