Ahoy! Today is a new day. MLB is kinda mailing in yet another Thursday, unfortunately, as we’re looking at a measly 5-game main slate kicking off a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET.
To make matters worse, Coors Field is back in our lives, and the Rockies are starting one of their many nonsense pitchers with the Diamondbacks in town. One potential complication is this is also a Tarik Skubal slate (weather permitting), so we’ll actually have some decisions to make, as fully stacking Arizona while also paying up for Skubal is difficult in this salary-capped world.
Let’s dig into Skubal and the rest of the slate’s pitching options.
SP1 – Tarik Skubal, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera
Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball, and tonight he’s in Minnesota to take on the post-deadline Twins. Minnesota hasn’t been a total pushover since selling all their best pieces at the end of July, but does it even matter?
Skubal infamously doo-dooed his pants in his last start against the Cubs as mega-chalk, but those kinds of outings have been rare. For the season, we’re looking at a 33.7% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate with no power allowed. He has been barreled by righties a little (8.5%), but that’s really the only blemish on the ledger. Look at all the green:
Minnesota’s projected lineup has a collective 23.8% strikeout rate vs. LHP on the year (some small samples in there) along with average power (.168 ISO). Skubal is the obvious SP1, but we’re paying $11,900 for this guy on DraftKings with Arizona in Coors. You’re probably going to have to make a decision, and I expect the masses to choose the bats over Skubal. The pitcher will still be popular, but I don’t expect him to be the chalkiest arm on the slate.
That’ll be Jesus Luzardo, who’s clearly underpriced at only $8,400 in DC against the Nationals. Luzardo isn’t Skubal, but only Skubal is Skubal. Still, a 26.7% strikeout rate for the year with particularly dominant numbers against his fellow lefties (42.1%!) is more than adequate for a matchup against the lefty-heavy Nats. Washington’s projected lineup has been atrocious vs. LHP, with a collective K-rate pushing 30% with minimal power beyond the top 2-3 hitters in the order.
It’s incredibly easy to play Luzardo as the SP1 in DBax lineups, so that’s what people are going to do. The only reason it may be the wrong thing to do is you’re eating a ton of ownership if you build that way, but it’s also the build likely to score the most points. Just remember this is baseball, and volatility is king, even with ace-caliber pitchers in what appear to be favorable spots.
I’ll call the third SP1 Edward Cabrera, who’s been in amazing form heading into tonight’s outing in Cleveland. Cabrera was a highly-ranked prospect who dealt with some injuries and wildness early in his career, but he sure looks like a guy who’s figured things out.
Over the past month, the right-hander is sporting a 29.2% strikeout rate and, more importantly, a tiny 5.2% walk rate well south of his career average. He’s also keeping the ball on the ground better than 56% of the time. Cabrera’s allowing a few too many barrels (11.3%), but that’s the only weakness I can spot.
I think a matchup with Cleveland is similar to Skubal’s against Minnesota. Not a ton of strikeouts here (21.7%), and they’re average on the power front vs. RHP (.168 ISO, .322 wOBA). I think Cabrera’s a clear No. 3 on this slate behind Skubal and Luzardo, but I like shooting for his ceiling in tournaments, especially considering projection systems are likely lower on him than they probably should be given his excellent form of late.
SP2 – Tanner Bibee, Brad Lord, Kodai Senga, Bailey Ober, Eduardo Rodriguez
Kodai Senga is technically priced up there with Luzardo and Cabrera in the sub-$9,000 range, but I view him as a secondary option at home against the Braves. Senga’s been in miserable form with almost as many walks as strikeouts since returning from injury, and the Braves aren’t a pushover, even without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley. You can always roll the dice here at low ownership and hope he suddenly rediscovers his good form, but Luzardo and Cabrera are simply better plays.
If anyone down here is chalky, I’d expect it to be Tanner Bibee at home against the Marlins. Same story as it’s been all year with this guy. The overall numbers aren’t great (21.5% Ks), but he’s improved in that regard over the last month (24.7%). The issue is Miami is a pretty good offense at this point, and they don’t strike out much (20% vs. RHP). The selling point is Bibee is a decent pitcher who’ll only cost you $7,700, so he’ll help you pay up for the DBax if you’re so inclined.
My favorite SP2 – ownership considered – is Brad Lord at home against the Phillies. He’s been very tough on righties, keeping the ball on the ground 54.4% of the time with just a 2% barrel rate and almost no power allowed. That’ll do. Against lefties, the strikeouts are up to 25%, which could come in handy against a lineup with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in it. I don’t expect him to pitch a shutout or some nonsense, but he’s a solid pitcher with a $6,300 salary on a slate with plenty of expensive stuff worth paying for. I kinda love this?
Ober and E-Rod are large-field GPP dart throws at $7,200 and $6,900, respectively. These are good pitchers historically, but both have really struggled this season. Ober has ticked up the Ks (29.4%) against righties over the last month, but Detroit can throw 5 lefties at him, and the strikeouts fall off a cliff (11.1%) vs. LHB. He’s cheap, but he’s cheap for a reason.
Rodriguez, I suppose, has upside for the dollar considering he’s facing the Rockies, but he’s going into Coors. We saw Colorado tee off on him in Phoenix just last week, and there’s nothing about his recent numbers that suggests he’s suddenly going to turn a corner. Anything can happen in one baseball game, but I’m not very interested.
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