MLB generally takes it easy on Thursdays, and this Thursday is no exception. We’re looking at just 5 games tonight on DraftKings, and the festivities will get underway a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET. We’ve all forgotten about an early lock time and gotten burned as a result, so I suggest not doing that today.
Anyway, it should be a pretty straightforward slate from an ownership standpoint with the Diamondbacks in Colorado to take on Bradley Blalock and the rest of the Rockies’ woeful pitching staff. I doubt the pivot stacks will even be super low-owned on such a small slate, but it’s not like Arizona is the only offense in a favorable spot.
Let’s dive in.
Primary Stacks – Diamondbacks, Rockies, Mets
Diamondbacks (at Bradley Blalock)
As mentioned, Arizona will take their swings against Bradley Blalock, a human I did not even know existed until the Rockies slotted him into their rotation earlier this year. Colorado seems to have minimal interest in fielding a competitive team, and this is the result.
Randomness is inherent in baseball, but it’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks flatlining here in the game’s best hitting environment, especially with Blalock starting the game. This is a guy with an 11.2% strikeout rate and minimal groundball skills. He’s been the victim of a high BABIP, but that’s always true of Rockies pitchers in these elements.
The control is passable, but that’s about it. He’s been crushed by lefties, in particular, so I’d imagine Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll will be the most popular bats on the slate, and it’s justified. The rest of the D-Backs’ lineup isn’t as imposing as it was before they sold off Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, but Adrian Del Castillo, Alek Thomas, Geraldo Perdomo, and Jose Herrera will swing it from the left side here, too.
It’s not like Blalock’s shutting down righties, so, by all means, get your Lourdes Gurriel and Tyler Locklear shares, too.
Rockies (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez)
As usual, the Rockies should be the lower-owned of the offenses in this game, but they still won’t fly under the radar. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a good pitcher for a long time, but the numbers this season leave a lot to be desired. We’re looking at about a 22% strikeout rate with good control, but the groundballs have really fallen off. He’s also allowing a shitload of power (.208 ISO, .378 wOBA), with his fellow lefties (11.3% barrels, .416 wOBA) giving him headaches, too.
Ownership considered, I assume I’ll wind up more on the Colorado side than the Arizona side. There are quite a few hitters with good power numbers (Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Brenton Doyle) against LHPs, while you can save salary with guys like Kyle Karros, Aaron Schunk, and Braxton Fulford.
Mets (vs. Bryce Elder)
If there’s a team capable of matching the Coors production, it’s probably the Mets at home against Bryce Elder. Citi Field is generally pitcher-friendly, but it’s an elite offense against one of the slate’s worst pitchers, so the math is pretty easy.
Every single hitter in New York’s lineup aside from Luis Torrens has an ISO of at least .189 against RHP this season, and Elder hasn’t been very splitsy. He does generate more groundballs against righties, but that’s kinda it? I’d start with Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor, while I’m into Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty as the value pieces from the left side. You can always play Pete Alonso against anybody regardless of handedness.
Secondary Stacks – Braves, Tigers
Braves (at Kodai Senga)
As mentioned in Top Pitchers, Kodai Senga really hasn’t had it since returning from the IL. The walks are out of control, and the strikeouts haven’t yet returned to their normal levels. I’m assuming he’ll figure it out at some point, but I’ll keep stacking against him until he proves it.
Most of Senga’s control issues have come against lefties, even if he projects for a neutral split from the right side. Atlanta does have some solid lefties hitting near the top of the order – Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies – so the stack comes together pretty easily. Vidal Brujan and Nacho Alvarez are decent values, while we can usually skip Nick Allen.
Tigers (at Bailey Ober)
Bailey Ober really hasn’t had it all season, either, and he’s been particularly woeful against lefties. Most of the meat in the Tigers’ order swings it from the left side. Colt Keith is hitting a home run tonight, while Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Wenceel Perez, and Zach McKinstry will also swing it from the preferred side of the plate.
I’d still get to Gleyber, Dingler, and Baez in stacks as needed.
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