Another MLB DFS slate is upon us, albeit with a smaller main slate at DraftKings. One of our Discord members had a nice $250 win last night, and the goal is to keep the good times coming.
Let’s get things started off right with a look at the top arms to target on this slate, and be sure to check out our best MLB DFS stacks for tonight as well.
SP1 – Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, Shohei Ohtani
Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan are the priced-up aces, while Kevin Gausman and Ohtani are both under $9,000. Brown draws the Red Sox at home, while Ryan gets the Yankees in the Bronx. Both matchups are tough, but Brown’s overall numbers are superior. Brown’s 30.1% K-rate leads the slate, though he’s down to 25.6% over the last month. I’m still trusting the larger sample, but Boston is an average strikeout foe (21.3%) with good power (.194 ISO, .342 wOBA). Far from a perfect matchup to be paying north of $10,000 for a guy, but I’m still getting to Brown as a core piece in all formats.
Ryan is really just a secondary consideration for me at $9,600 against a Yankees lineup with lots of lefties. Ryan’s very splitsy (32.8% Ks vs. RHB, 23.3% vs. LHB), and New York can throw 6 lefties at him. They do have a higher team K-rate than the Red Sox (24.7%), albeit with tons of power risk (.242 ISO). We’re getting no discount for Ryan, but he’s worth playing in GPPs on a fairly limited slate.
Gausman gets the Cubs at home, which is also a tough spot. This guy is a total mystery box on a nightly basis. He’s pitched like an ace (31.6% Ks, 4.1% walks) over the last month, but he’ll also have his random meltdown outings, as we saw a few starts ago against the A’s and then again 2 starts ago against KC. I’d rather pay $8,800 for Gausman against the Cubs than $9,600 for Ryan against the Yankees, so that’s where I am with it. Nothing in the top tier is gonna feel great.
If anyone’s underpriced for their skills, it’s Ohtani ($8,000) against the Angels. The issue is the Dodgers are slowly building him back up, and the 54 pitches he threw in his last outing were a season-high. We’re likely looking at 60ish maximum from him tonight, and that’s a tough sell at $8,000. I’ll play a little bit of him because he’s a guy with a 33% K-rate facing an Angels lineup with a 26% strikeout rate, but he’s a secondary GPP play, at best.
SP2 – JT Ginn, Cam Schlittler, Walker Buehler
Things are dire on the SP2 front tonight, but I like the savings you get with JT Ginn ($6,800) at home against the Rays. He’s been very splitsy (33% Ks vs. RHB, 17.8% vs. LHB), so a Rays lineup with 5-6 lefties brings some risk, but whatever. Pitching is butt on this slate, and he’s cheap with some upside against a pretty mediocre TB lineup. I’ll have an uncomfortable amount of him.
Schlittler would be my next preference at home against the post-trade deadline Zombie Twins. Strikeout stuff has been average while the walks are too high so far, but he’s a hard thrower who could offer a little more K upside against Minnesota. There’s quite a bit of power in this lineup he’ll have to navigate, but the risk is mitigated by the $7,000 salary. I prefer Ginn, but I’ll also have a good amount of Schlittly.
Buehler is a dart throw at $6,000 against an Astros team resting Carlos Correa. He’s not good, but he does have a groundball lean, and one thing Houston does quite a bit is hit the baseball on the ground. I’ll have a sprinkling of Buehler in multi-entry for the savings, as he’ll help me afford some of the slate’s big bats.
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