Hey folks! Late start for me today. We’re selling our home, and we got an offer – it was a terrible one – so I’ve been busy with other stuff/procrastinating.
Sadly, no time for shenanigans, as this slate starts relatively soon, so let’s dive right in.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (8/5)
- Paul Skenes ($9,600, at Brewers)
- Sony Gray ($9,300, vs. White Sox)
- Bryan Woo ($9,000, vs. Tigers)
- Sean Burke ($8,700, at Red Sox)
- Kyle Harrison ($8,500, vs. Pirates)
- Eury Perez ($8,300, at Braves)
- Will Warren ($7,800, vs. Cardinals)
- Noah Cameron ($6,600, vs. Twins)
Bit of an abbreviated main slate tonight – what with the afternoon games and such – but it’s still a pretty good pool of pitchers. This Paul Skenes-vs.-Kyle Harrison matchup in Milwaukee looks pretty awesome, and, naturally, we’ll have substantial interest in both pitchers.
Skenes has been in poor form for a while. His 3.90 ERA is very easily the worst of his career, though, to be fair, this guy had a sub-2.00 ERA in each of his first 2 years as a pro. That middling ERA is belied by a 3.03 SIERA, which, obviously, is quite a bit more impressive.
Skenes’ groundball rate has weirdly declined to 39.7%, a steep decline from his 45% career clip. Skenes’ 30.5% strikeout rate on the year is in line with everything else he’s ever done, as is his 6.3% walk rate. He was lucky stranding baserunners in his first 2 years (well over 80%), while this year he’s only stranded about 66%. His barrel rate is up – he’s already allowed the most homers he’s ever allowed – and his Stuff+ is down despite a normal swinging strike rate of around 13%.
It’s a little scary given his recent form, but I’m still inclined to think there’s nothing wrong here, even if his velo is down a bit. The Brewers (22.3% Ks, .159 ISO) are a decent matchup for strikeouts, and they’re one of the least-powerful offenses in the league. I’ll play a healthy amount of Skenes without going too crazy across a full set of lineups. I’ll probably cap him around 35-40% exposure for Risk Aversion Purposes.
Harrison hasn’t pitched in the majors in a month because of forearm tightness, so he’ll presumably be capped around 75-80 pitches. The Brewers are typically pretty cautious with these situations, but we are getting a nice discount with Harrison at $8,500. He’s been fabulous this year (29.6% Ks, 5.9% walks, 3.09 SIERA). He also reportedly made a point of throwing his change-up more often in his lone rehab start. Per Stuff+, his change-up is his best pitch, but he barely throws it. A change-up is a lethal way to keep opposite-handed hitters off-balance, and Harrison’s lone weakness so far this season has been righty power (.164 ISO).
The Pirates are quite a punchless bunch against lefties (.145 ISO, .316 wOBA) with a strikeout rate pushing 23%. I don’t love the likely pitch cap, but I love the pitcher and the matchup enough to play him a good amount.
When I was looking up Sonny Gray on Fangraphs I came across a player from 1929 named “Son Childs,” which is pretty redundant for a name. Maybe that just made it easier for his parents to identify him, I dunno. Gray is having another good year, with a sub-3.00 ERA to go along with a 21.3% K-rate and a 3.90 SIERA. The strikeout rate is one of the lowest of his career, while that ERA/SIERA gap tells us he’s been on the lucky side with preventing runs. Gray still gets groundballs (47.7%), and the White Sox will do some striking out (22.8%).
The White Sox will also do some mashing against righties (.194 ISO, .331 wOBA). Over the past month, Gray’s K-rate has fallen further, to just 15.7%. I suppose he is an okay play, but I don’t have a ton of interest.
I’d rather play Bryan Woo for $300 less at home against the Tigers. Woo has weirdly dramatic home/road splits this year, but, fortunately, this start is at home, where he’s been far better. Woo’s 4.56 ERA is nearly a full run higher than his 3.58 SIERA. He’s had bad luck with stranding baserunners (61%) and BABIP (.297). Those are primary drivers of pitchers who have inflated ERAs compared to their underlying metrics.
Woo’s 24.5% strikeout rate is fine, but he was never a high-K pitcher to begin with. Detroit (.190 ISO, .353 wOBA, 20.8% Ks) is not necessarily an easy matchup, but the ballpark is nice. I’m into it.
Sean Burke will face Gray at Fenway. He’s a guy with a lower ERA (3.04) than SIERA (3.41), but both are good. His 27.7% K-rate is easily the highest of his career, but the 11.3% swinging strike rate makes that look a little inflated. Boston (.170 ISO, .319 wOBA, 21.4% Ks) hasn’t been amazing overall vs. RHP on the year, but over the last month, they’re at a .197 ISO with a .349 wOBA. I’m a bit reluctant to buy into Burke, especially at $8,700. He’s okay, but I’d rather take the savings with Harrison or find the extra funds for Woo or Skenes.
Eury Perez is terrific, but he struggles to harness his electric stuff. The result is a guy with a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. I think the strikeout rate is on the low end of his potential, but he also allows lots of hard-hit balls (10.3% barrels). He’s done a better job of limiting lefty power, which is actually a benefit for him in this matchup against the Braves. It’s still a good enough offense that I’m not super psyched to get to Eury on this slate, though I do like him, as always, for large-field GPPs.
Will Warren draws the Cardinals at home. There isn’t much to write home about here. His 9.1% swinging strike rate suggests his 23% strikeout rate is even higher than it should be, but he’s not a bad pitcher overall. St. Louis is a good run-prevention matchup unless you’re Cam Schlittler, apparently. The Cardinals are not a high-strikeout foe (18.2%), but they also don’t hit for much power (.152 ISO), especially without Jordan Walker. Warren is cheap enough at $7,800 to be on my radar, even if he’s not a primary option.
I’ll probably get to more Noah Cameron at home against the Twins. This is a pretty average pitcher in all regards, with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, and a 4.19 SIERA. He’s a flyball guy, but that’s fine in Kansas City, while the Twins have been quite weak vs. southpaws (.144 ISO, .310 wOBA). It’s not a good matchup or ballpark for Ks, but hey, he’s $6,600. If going cheap, I’m going cheap with Noah “Simpson” Cameron.
SP Rankings
- Skenes
- Woo
- Harrison
- Cameron
- Warren
- Burke
- Perez
- Gray
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Wednesday
- Red Sox (vs. Sean Burke)
- Marlins (at Bryce Elder)
- Padres (at Mitch Bratt)
- Mariners (vs. Drew Anderson?)
- Royals (vs. Mean Dean Kremer)
- White Sox (at Sonny Gray)
- Yankees (vs. Andre Pallante)
No Coors Field or Windy Wrigley to worry about on this slate, so it’ll be interesting to see where the ownership goes for bats. At first glance, I don’t really know.
Maybe the Padres? San Diego has underperformed for much of the season. They’re up to a .343 wOBA vs. lefties over the last month, but they’re still awfully light in the power department (.115 ISO). On the bright side, DBax lefty Mitch Bratt doesn’t look ready for prime time, as his walk rate (14.3%) is higher than his strikeout rate (12.2%) through a few MLB starts. He’s also allowed a .235 ISOm, .394 wOBA, and an 8.6% barrel rate.
This was a prospect renowned for his control, so I’m assuming he’ll stop walking everyone at some point, but that doesn’t necessarily happen tonight, and, obviously, nothing is guaranteed at all. Can you stack the Padres against him? I will respond to that with a resounding, “I guess, man.” This is probably the worst starter on the slate.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Ty France are the Padres’ headliners vs. left-handed pitching. The hitter with the best numbers this season is – against all odds – France. I’m okay with Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth against a guy who apparently can’t handle his fellow lefties.
While I’m not a full-on believer in Burke, the numbers are still pretty good, and I’m not necessarily excited to stack the Red Sox against him despite their recent success at the plate. Lefties (8.6% barrels) have made decent contact against him. Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran are always the most alluring lefty bats, though Nick Sogard is cheap and leading off again. Willson Contreras, Andruw Monasterio, and Ceddane Rafaela make the cut in full stacks.
While Gray has been lucky, he’s also not really someone I’m thrilled to stack against, as he’s allowed just a .148 ISO and .298 wOBA with decent groundball rates to both sides. The White Sox are pretty fun, though, so there’s that, and they’re better against righties. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Andrew Benintendi, and Miguel Vargas all have ISOs north of .200 vs. RHP. Tristan Peters, Braden Montgomery, and Sam Antonacci have solid numbers, too.
The Mariners will face right-hander Drew Anderson to start the game, but he hasn’t thrown more than 32 pitches in a game since the middle of June for the Tigers. So it’ll be Anderson and plenty of bullpen, I guess. Seattle is a poor offense, but at least they’re fairly cheap as a result of their dreadfulness. Cal Raleigh, Cole Young, Dom Canzone, and Brendan Donovan are all very solid value plays. Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena aren’t overly expensive, while you can get cheap with Josh Naylor and Colt Emerson, too. Hey, Taylor Ward is here now. I’m going to be honest – I’m always honest – I have no feel whatsoever for what the Mariners may do on a given night. I like them as much as anything else on this slate.
Royals? Dean Kremer will make his Twins debut. With the Orioles, he allowed a .321 ISO and a .381 wOBA in a small sample this season. Is that good? It is not. Lefties (9.9% barrels, .190 ISO) tagged him pretty well last year, so Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Michael Massey, and John Rave (?) grade out pretty well along with Bobby Witt Jr., as always. I might like the Royals more than the Mariners, but I also think the Royals will come with more ownership.
The Marlins were doo-doo against Grant Holmes last night, but tonight they’ll face an even worse pitcher in Bryce Elder. Elder’s had more trouble with righties over the last couple of years, while he’s fared weirdly well against LHBs. I will note that Miami is a pretty cheap stack on aggregate, so they’re a pretty easy way to get access to an expensive pitching pairing if that is your Cup of Tea on this slate. Otto Lopez and Kyle Stowers stand out the most, while Heriberto Hernandez, Joe Mack, Owen Caissie, Griffin Conine, and Xavier Edwards are all pretty cheap.
Andre Pallante isn’t particularly good, but he does have good control to go along with an elite groundball rate, which makes him a tougher guy to stack against. He is a little more vulnerable to lefties, and the Yankees are nothing if not a ton of lefties. Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Luis Garcia, Spencer Jones, and Ryan McMahon have the lowest groundball rates among New York’s left-handed bats.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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