How do you do, fellow kids? Tuesday brings a big ol MLB DFS slate with a little bit of everything. That includes the LA Dodgers debut of Tarik Skubal, while we’ll see a host of others donning new uniforms for the first time on the heels of yesterday’s extremely active trade deadline.
Skubal’s first matchup in Dodger blue is a tricky one, so we’ll see how to navigate that along with another Rays-Rockies matchup at Coors Field. Let us dive in.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for August 4
- MacKenzie Gore ($7,800, vs. Giants)
- Patrick Sandoval ($6,900, vs. White Sox)
- Ryan Weathers ($8,500, vs. Cardinals)
- Tarik Skubal ($11,000, at Cubs)
- Joe Ryan ($9,800, at Royals)
- Jared Jones ($7,600, at Brewers)
- Logan Henderson ($10,000, vs. Pirates)
- Emerson Hancock ($8,000, vs. Tigers)
Pretty good pitching slate with viable options in just about every price tier. The headliner is Skubal, though it’s not an ideal spot for his first outing as a Dodger on the road in Chicago with some wind blowing out.
It feels like Skubal hasn’t been quite as dominant, yet the numbers don’t really bear that out. His 31% K-rate is down only slightly from last year’s 32.2% mark, while he’s improved his already-elite walk rate from 4.4% to 3.7%. His 2.67 SIERA is simply phenomenal. His 16.2% swinging strike rate is also phenomenal. His 117 Stuff+ number puts him right there with Jacob Misiorowski.
Skubal is $11,000, though. The Cubs are a decent offense against lefties (.339 wOBA) with average power (.158 ISO). Skubal’s lone blemish is a semi-high 8.3% barrel rate allowed to righties, and wind blowing out to left certainly helps right-handed hitters. If salary weren’t a consideration I’d just play him everywhere along with everyone else. I’ll probably come in around 20% exposure. Good play, not necessarily a must-play.
Logan Henderson ($10,000) and Joe Ryan ($9,800) are next up in terms of salary. Troy Melton is also $9,800, which, lol. Henderson’s numbers are kinda Skubalian (32% Ks, 5.3% walks, 2.87 SIERA), albeit in an admittedly much smaller sample. The underlying numbers suggest this guy probably isn’t a 30% strikeouts guy long-term. He’s still quite good, though the Brewers most often cap him around 5 innings. He did get up to 93 pitches in his last start, for what it’s worth.
The Pirates (.174 ISO, .351 wOBA, 22.1% Ks) are a solid offense against righties. If I’m paying top dollar, I’ll just find the extra $1,000 to get up to Skubal or save the $200 with Ryan. I’d probably have a lot more interest in Henderson on another slate.
Ryan has been knocked around in his last 2 starts, allowing a total of 12 earned runs and 7 homers to the Guardians and Royals combined. Not great! Pretty weird. He’ll face the Royals again tonight, this time in strikeout-supressin’ Kansas City. Ryan (27.1% Ks, 5% walks) has allowed a barrel rate north of 11% over the past couple of seasons, so that’s kinda just who he is. A very good pitcher who will occasionally serve up some meatballs and, as a result, some dongs.
KC isn’t a particularly good offense (.314 wOBA), even with Bobby Witt Jr. due back tonight. Facing 5 lefties isn’t ideal for Ryan, though, and we’re not getting a huge discount here. He’s a perfectly okay play, though he and Henderson are both well behind Skubal in terms of priority for me, Noah Simpson.
Troy Melton, fuck off!
I suppose we’d better address the room’s elephant, a $7,800 MacKenzie Gore at home against the Giants. That’s a cheap salary for a pitcher with Gore’s strikeout stuff (26%), and the new-look Giants are an absolute horror show against lefties. The projected lineup has a .288 wOBA, .133 ISO, and a 24.3% K-rate vs. LHP on the season. Luis Arraez and Heliot Ramos are gone, Matt Chapman is still on the IL. There’s no reason to think Gore can’t mow these guys down. Hitters 5-through-9 in San Francisco’s projected lineup are Daniel Susac, Christian Koss, Grant McCray, Osleivis Basabe, and Buddy Kennedy.
The problem? Gore is hardly reliable, with a 9.2% barrel rate and 8.4% overall walk rate, including a gnarly 12.2% free-pass rate against his fellow lefties. On the bright side, the Giants have been among the least-patient lineups in the sport all season, and I don’t expect that to change. Ownership is the only reason I can think of to fade Gore tonight, but at $7,800, I don’t even really care too much about that. I’m probably Just Playing Him along with the rest of the world on DK.
Ryan Weathers has now gone back-to-back starts without allowing any dongs, which must be a personal record. He has pitched pretty well all season (26.1% Ks, 3.46 SIERA) despite allowing too many dingers. $8,500 is a reasonable ask for those skills. St. Louis has been a very low-K lot (17.5%) against lefties, but they’re also not all that imposing (.143 ISO, .313 wOBA). It’s not a spot to hunt ceiling, but I like the salary, and I’m not worried about Weathers getting destroyed here. I’m probably playing him a decent amount.
Jared Jones is still working his way back from injury, so the Pirates continue to take a cautious approach to his pitch count. He’s probably topping out around 80 on the road tonight in Milwaukee. I trust his numbers (27.9% Ks, 3.45 SIERA), while Milwaukee is still punching out at a healthy clip (23.4%) vs. RHBs. $7,600 looks about right for a guy who won’t come remotely close to 100 pitches, and the savings are useful on this slate. I don’t think he’s a bad straight-line pivot if you’re nervous about Gore’s ownership.
Emerson Hancock ($8,000) gets the Tigers at home. He continues to pitch pretty well (23.2% Ks), though the Tigers (.189 ISO, .350 wOBA) have hit RHP pretty well. I like the ballpark and I like the salary, but he’s still behind Gore, Weathers, and Jones if I’m shopping in the $8,000 range.
If I’m on an island tonight, I assume it will be with Patrick Sandoval, who pitches against the White Sox at home. Sandoval was a little like Jose Soriano before Jose Soriano; a very talented pitcher who walked a few too many and struggled to shed the Angels’ stank on him while he was there. He’s only pitched 4 times for the Red Sox this year, but the numbers are solid (23.3% Ks, 7% walks, 3.93 SIERA). The good groundball stuff he had earlier in his career hasn’t shown up just yet, but I think he’s a good pitcher, and he’s only $6,900.
Sandoval is also a lefty against the White Sox, and we prefer lefties against the White Sox. Chicago still hits for lots of power (.196 ISO), but they’ll also strike out quite a bit (24.4%). Sandoval isn’t safe by any means, but he got up to 92 pitches in his last start, so the leash is fairly full by now. I’m probably playing him everywhere. Not that that means you should play him everywhere.
SP Rankings
- Gore
- Skubal
- Sandoval
- Weathers
- Jones
- Ryan
- Henderson
- Hancock
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- Rays (at Gabriel Hughes)
- Rockies (vs. Freddy Peralta)
- Twins (at Randy Dobnak)
- Red Sox (vs. Davis Martin)
- Marlins (at Grant Holmes)
- Dodgers (at Javier Assad)
- Braves (vs. Ryan Gusto)
- Mariners (vs. Troy Melton)
- Yankees (vs. Hunter Dobbins)
Lots of good pitchers out there tonight. Lots of bad ones, too. I don’t think Gabriel Hughes is one of The Bad Ones, but he is on the Rockies. I don’t think this spot for the Rays is quite as good as last night’s, but this is also the kind of team that should use the ballpark’s elements to its advantage. Probably don’t really need to dive into specifics here. They’re all playable if they crack the lineup.
The Rockies’ side will be lower-owned, as always. Part of me expects the Rays to find a way to Make Freddy Peralta Good Again, but his stuff has really tailed off this season, so maybe they won’t. He’s also only been there for a couple of days, so maybe their magic pitching fairy dust hasn’t taken just yet. Lefties (.209 ISO, .348 wOBA) have given Peralta trouble all year, and the Rockies profile well against right-handed pitching, in general. Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield, Mickey Moniak, Cole Carrigg, Willi Castro, and Troy Johnston will all have the platoon edge in this one. Hunter Goodman is Hunter Goodman. Once again, I really like this.
The Twins didn’t do much of anything when they took their hacks against Randy Dobnak last week, but what happened last week has no bearing on what may happen tonight. Dobnak is an extremely low-K right-hander who’s entirely at the mercy of The BABIP Gods. His groundball ability (54.9%) helps his cause, but I’m going to go right back to the well with Minnesota. This is the worst pitcher on the slate, so I’ll target him with Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, and Royce Lewis, who all have barrel rates of at least 8.3% against RHP on the season. Luke Keaschall is a solid play, as well. It’s an affordable stack with Byron Buxton still out.
Davis Martin is having the best season of his career, but that’s a low hurdle, and he has a SIERA of around 4.00 and a strikeout rate of around 21% in a career year. Boston has a healthy 4.76 total in this one, too. I’m starting any Red Sox stack with Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddane Rafaela, while Anthony Seigler, Andruw Monasterio, Caleb Durbin, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran are terrific point-per-dollar values.
The Marlins get a park boost going into Atlanta to face Grant Holmes and his wet hair. Lefties (.198 ISO, 11.9% barrels, .331 wOBA) have found success in this matchup, and Miami can get pretty lefty-heavy with Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, and Joe Mack. Heriberto Hernandez is a righty, but he’s hit for power (.178 ISO) vs. same-handed pitching.
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, so the Dodgers should probably have our attention against the middling Javier Assad. Lefties (.233 ISO, .339 wOBA, 12.3% barrels) have taken him to Pound Town, so fire up Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman, and the rotting and obscenely rich husk of Kyle Tucker, as usual.
Ryan Gusto has fared well against righties in his career, but the same cannot be said of his work against left-handed bats. Good spot for Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, and Drake Baldwin.
Hunter Dobbins has pitched to a right-handed reverse split, though I’d expect the Yankees to pile all the lefties into the lineup regardless. New York’s projected lineup has a whopping 12.6% barrel rate vs. right-handed pitching this season. Everyone is playable.
I don’t mind a dusting of the Mariners against Troy Melton, even in pitcher-friendly Seattle. Lefties (.212 ISO) have hit for some power against him – Cal Raleigh, Cole Young, Dom Canzone, things of that nature. Taylor Ward and Brendan Donovan are also likely to be in the lineup tonight, which beefs them up a little.
Randy Vasquez is starting for the Padres, but he hasn’t thrown more than 65 pitches in a game since June, so it’s probably more of an extended opener situation than anything else. He’s bad, but the DBax are also bad, and the Padres can simply turn to their elite bullpen full of electric arms at the first sign of trouble. As a result, I’m probably maxing this out with a mini-stack of the usuals, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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