Happy Wednesday. There’s some afternoon/early-evening baseball on the schedule, so we’re looking at a smaller-than-usual main slate tonight. DraftKings has just 6 games on the board, as they’ve chosen to start the slate at 7:05 PM ET instead of 6:40. Tacking on the 3 6:40 games would’ve been better, but I’m just a guy, and not a guy who has the privilege of making such decisions. I’m sure a lot of thought by the guy making those decisions went into that decision, though.
The smallish slate leaves us light on appealing pitching options, so maybe this will be a better slate for bats. Or maybe it won’t be. I guess we should talk about it and figure it out.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Wednesday
- Bryce Miller ($9,700, at Yankees)
- Ranger Suarez ($9,000, at Blue Jays)
- Jose Soriano ($8,700, vs. Red Sox)
- Will Warren ($8,000, vs. Mariners)
- Tyler Mahle ($7,700, vs. Mets)
- Luis Castillo ($7,500, vs. Reds)
- Eric Lauer ($6,500, vs. Royals)
- Cal Quantrill ($6,200, at Angels)
- George Klassen ($6,000, vs. Rangers)
Yeah, man, it’s not great out there. Bryce Miller is the most expensive arm on the board at $9,700 for a road date with the Yankees. Miller’s 25.8% strikeout rate and 3.41 SIERA for the season are solid, but those strikeouts have absolutely tumbled off a cliff over the last month (15.4%). Miller does have good control, but he’s also a flyball pitcher who will yield some power, and he has been yielding plenty of that over the last 30 days (.214 ISO).
Miller has better numbers overall against left-handed hitters – which is probably useful for a matchup against the lefty-heavy Yankees – and New York does strike out at a decent 23.9% clip in spite of all their thunder (.211 ISO vs. RHP). I will probably be playing some Miller by default on such a thin pitching slate, but I’m not going out of my way to make him a priority.
Ranger Suarez is good. He pitched like shit in his last game, but guys tend to pitch like shit sometimes. Aces are especially fond of that, many people are saying. Suarez only recently returned from the injured list, and he’s thrown 64, 65, and 70 pitches in those 3 outings, respectively. His strikeouts (25.5%) are up this season. The Blue Jays still don’t strike out much (18.3% vs. LHP), but they’re also pretty impotent (.129 ISO, .299 wOBA). I’d probably have a ton of Suarez here if we could expect a full leash, but I’m having a hard time envisioning any more than 85 pitches here considering how tight his cap has been lately. He’s a solid play at $9,000, but that’s still a pretty stiff asking price for a guy on a leash who is not Blake Snell.
Jose Soriano isn’t on the Angels anymore, so I can only assume he will start to put it together for real. He looked like the same old guy in his first outing for Toronto last week, as he piled up 3 strikeouts and 3 walks on 94 pitches over just 4.2 innings against the Phillies. I think once he fully realizes his talent he’s going to have a higher strikeout rate than he does currently (24.5%). The groundballs (51.8%) have declined from the incredible 65% rate he posted a season ago, while the control problems remain (11.3% walks).
The Red Sox are a solid offense, though I think they’re closer to average than elite (.175 ISO, .322 wOBA, 20.5% Ks vs. RHP). They don’t take many walks – good for Soriano – and they do have quite a few high-groundball bats – also good for Soriano. We never know which version of Soriano will show up, but there’s upside here. Unfortunately, he’s also likely to draw plenty of ownership on such a small slate, which is scary.
Will Warren gets the privilege of facing the Gutless Mariners. He’s solid (23% Ks, 3.90 SIERA), and the Mariners just haven’t hit all season (.149 ISO, .319 wOBA, 20.4% Ks vs. RHP). I don’t love that Seattle can and likely will throw 6 lefties at him, but the ask ($8,000) is reasonable, and this slate is booty.
It looks like Tyler Mahle will be a trendy option at home against the Mets in his second start for the Braves. His first outing in the Bronx last week went exceedingly well, but overall, this is a guy with a 23% strikeout rate, 4.14 SIERA, and a 4.83 ERA. I really don’t think he’s particularly good anymore, but the Mets (.135 ISO, .296 wOBA) have admittedly been pretty punchless against RHP. $7,800 is an attractive enough salary. I will certainly be playing both sides of this.
Luis Castillo will make his second start for the White Sox, and it will be a #RevengeGame against his original squadron, the Cincinnati Reds. As is the case with Mahle, I don’t think this guy is any good anymore. A 4.31 SIERA and a 19.7% strikeout rate make him look rather average, in fact. The good part is the Reds continue to strike out with the best of ’em against RHP (26.2%). Another good part is that Castillo has still handled same-handed hitters pretty well, and the Reds are also very heavy on RHBs, with only 3 left-handed bats in the projected order. One of the bad parts is that the Reds have some power (.183 ISO), but I’m liking this the more I look at it. Castillo is just $7,500, so I’m in on him. I’d play him straight-up over Mahle.
Eric Lauer is pretty bad (4.89 ERA, 14.7% Ks, 5.24 SIERA), though he has gotten better results with the Dodgers overall. He’s yet another lefty facing the Royals, just like Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell before him. Eric Lauer is not Tarik Skubal or Blake Snell, but Kansas City is the same ol’ bad lineup against lefties (.147 ISO, .317 wOBA, 21.3% Ks, 6% walks). The Royals also have just a 3.61 implied run total in this one, which, I assume, is factoring in the Dodgers’ solid bullpen behind Lauer.
He’s $6,500 and facing the Royals, I guess is all it is. Playable.
Cal Quantrill and George Klassen will square off against one another in Anaheim in a pitching matchup for the ages. Quantrill’s effectiveness is entirely tied to his control, which is legitimately good against righties. In fact, most of his numbers are pretty excellent against righties, and we know the Angels are a righty-heavy bunch without many (any?) lefties of note. I’m assuming Quantrill will garner some ownership at $6,200 thanks to the matchup.
Klassen has a higher walk rate (26.9%) than strikeout rate (17.3%) in the majors this season, which is Not What You Want. He has kept the ball on the ground well (55.2%), but his barrel rate is also pushing 14%. This guy is not good, but a 26.9% walk rate is unsustainably atrocious, and he’s only $6,000. The Rangers (.175 ISO, .318 wOBA, 22.5% Ks vs. RHP) are a passable, not great, lineup. All of the ownership in this range is going to flock to Quantrill, but I don’t think Klassen is significantly worse, so if you want a low-owned pivot, here he is, in all of his glory.
SP Rankings
- Soriano
- Castillo
- Warren
- Mahle
- Miller
- Suarez
- Klassen
- Lauer
- Quantrill
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Wednesday
- Dodgers (vs. Daniel Lynch IV)
- Braves (vs. Zach Thornton)
- Reds (at Luis Castillo)
- Mariners (at Will Warren)
- Royals (at Eric Lauer)
- White Sox (vs. Rhett Lowder)
- Yankees (vs. Bryce Miller)
- Mets (at Tyler Mahle)
Daniel Lynch IV made his return to the Royals’ rotation a few days ago, and he lasted all of 1.2 innings and 35 pitches in a poor effort against the Cubs. The Dodgers are a better offense against right-handed pitching, but that doesn’t really matter much if the lefty starter is only going to pitch like 3 innings. Kansas City has one of baseball’s worst bullpens behind Lynch, as well.
I’m guessing they’ll be the chalk, but it seems like decent chalk, all things considered. Andy Pages, Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Mookie Betts have the platoon advantage against the lefty, while Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, and Freddie Freeman have held their own against same-handed pitching over the years. Maybe fading Ohtani is one way to make your Dodger stack different. Worse, but different.
The Braves face a lefty of their own in rookie Zach Thornton. He’s actually pitched pretty well so far (.094 ISO, .264 wOBA allowed), albeit with low strikeouts (17.6%) and some loud contact (8.8% barrels overall). Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and Austin Riley (?) have the best batted ball data vs. LHP this season, though Riley certainly hasn’t gotten the results you’d expect. Olson and Baldwin could (maybe?) fly a little under the radar lefty-lefty. Lane Thomas, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy have decent track records vs. LHP, too.
Both sides of White Sox-Reds are pretty stackable. We know we like lefties (Elly De La Cruz and JJ Bleday) against Castillo. I’d otherwise target the power-hittin’ RHBs in stacks – Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart, and Tyler Stephenson.
Rhett Lowder has quite distinct splits. He’s horrendous against LHBs, though he’s generated 56% groundballs with limited power allowed to his fellow righties. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, Andrew Benintendi, Sam Antonacci, Tristan Peters, and Braden Montgomery are all obvious standouts. I assume this team will be pretty chalky, because who doesn’t love the White Sox against a shitty right-hander?
Kansas City has a low total and they’ll get some Dodger bullpen, but maybe they can do damage against Lauer before any of that. He’s had a longer history of reverse splits from the left side, which keeps guys like Jac Caglianone, Michael Massey, and Carter Jensen in play. He’s still allowing a .214 ISO to righties, good for Nick Loftin, Bobby Witt Jr., and Sal Perez. I like this a lot, even if stacking against Lauer never seems to work out.
Bryce Miller seems to be turning back into a pumpkin before our very eyes, as his Ks have tanked and he’s allowed a .214 ISO over the last month. Everyone is in play here. Not a top stack, necessarily, but a good pivot off the Dodgers.
We’re all sick of the Mariners, and with good reason. Warren has still allowed power, especially to LHBs, so back to the well with these dweebs, I guess – Cole Young, Dom Canzone, Josh Naylor, Cal Raleigh, Brendan Donovan, and Colt Emerson will all swing it from the left side against the right-hander.
Mahle will be popular, which is sketchy chalk, so the Mets make sense for some leverage. Francisco Lindor and Jared Young are really the only Mets with halfway decent numbers vs. RHP, but I’d make sure to get AJ Ewing, Carson Benge, and Bo Bichette into stacks.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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