Happy Monday, friends. It’s been an eventful weekend in the Simpson household. Not only did we find a buyer for our current home, but we also had our offer for our new place accepted. So, we be movin’ out of state, likely within the next month. What a time to be alive.
Anyway, nobody cares. It’s baseball szn, after all. 10 games on the board for tonight. Still no Coors Field, but the A’s are back “home” in their friendly confines. We’ve also got the Dodger Stadium debut for Mr. Tarik Skubal. I suppose it’s not a bad pitching slate at first glance, but I reckon we should dig deeper before walking to the Jump To Conclusions Mat.
Off we go!
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Tarik Skubal ($10,700, vs. Royals)
- Logan Henderson ($10,200, at Padres)
- Sonny Gray ($9,200, at Blue Jays)
- Casey Mize ($9,000, vs. Brewers)
- Reid Detmers ($8,700, vs. Rangers)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,500, at Angels)
- Mike Soroka ($8,200, vs. Rockies)
- Trevor Rogers ($8,000, at Twins)
- Mean Dean Kremer ($6,200, vs. Orioles)
- Jameson Taillon ($5,800, vs. Red Sox)
Tarik Skubal is the headliner at $10,700. This will be his second start for the Dodgers and first at home, and he’ll make it against a familiar foe, the AL Central-dwellin’ Royals. Skubal was decent enough in his first outing last week against the Cubs, a much tougher opponent. On the season, he’s got a 30.7% K-rate, 4% walk rate, and 2.74 SIERA. He’s right there with Jacob Misiorowski as the game’s best pitcher, and his numbers are right in line with those he posted in his back-to-back Cy Young-winning seasons.
The Royals are a very beatable lineup for a lefty (.139 ISO, .312 wOBA, 20.4% Ks). Over the last 30 days, they’re even more pathetic (.086 ISO, .249 wOBA, 23.2% Ks). Skubal is awesome, and the matchup is awesome. I suppose the only ding on him is that he threw 85 pitches in his first start last week, and he’s only topped 100 pitches 7 times…in his entire career. Seems weird and wrong, but it’s weird and correct. I’m not too worried about it, especially given Kansas City’s lack of patience. $10,700 is hardly a cumbersome asking price, either.
The numbers say Logan Henderson is about as good as Skubal (32.3% Ks, 5.2% walks, 2.82 SIERA). His leash is even a little shorter than Skubal’s. He’s gotten over 90 pitches just once all season, and he left after 83 pitches in his last outing. Henderson does get a park boost going into San Diego, while the Padres (.162 ISO, .316 wOBA, 20.2% Ks vs. RHP) have numbers similar to those of the Royals. I’d still rather play the guy facing the Royals. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to Hendo as a result.
Sonny Gray has flashed quite a ceiling, including in his last start, but he’s another guy who rarely cracks 100 pitches. He, in fact, has not done that once all season. Gray is still real-life good (2.78 ERA, 3.83 SIERA), but he’s more of a groundballer (48.1%) than strikeouter (21.9%) at this stage of his career. I am not sure exactly why the Blue Jays have become terrible this season, but a .147 ISO and .312 wOBA vs. RHP is not scary. It’s not a particularly high-strikeout matchup (19%), though, and $9,200 is no discount.
Casey Mize got totally shellacked in his Padres debut last week in Arizona, yielding 8 runs on 9 hits in a wee 3.1 innings of work. His numbers for the season are quite good (23.7% Ks, 6.1% walks, 3.86 SIERA). Maybe he had some jitters. Tonight will be his first outing at Petco Park. The Brewers are a pesky offense (.173 ISO, .341 wOBA vs. RHP), but they’ll also do some striking out (23.7%). Give me Mize over Gray if I’m playing one of them, but I don’t think either of them are priorities considering what we have just below them.
That would be Reid Detmers and MacKenzie Gore, who will square off against each other in Anaheim. One note with Detmers is while he’s pitched very well, he also hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in any of his last 5 games. He pitched out of the bullpen last year, so maybe the Angels are being cautious with his innings down the stretch. It’s also the Angels, though, so they probably don’t have any sort of competent plan in place, but it’s still worth mentioning.
Detmers has been consistently excellent all year (28.3% Ks, 7.4% walks, 3.42 SIERA). His ERA (4.12) is only as high as it is because he’s only stranded about 68% of baserunners, which we can probably chalk up to the Angels’ shoddy defense behind him. The Rangers have a lot of power (.216 ISO, .355 wOBA vs. LHP), but they’ll also strike out a lot (25.2%). Kind of a boom/bust spot for Detmers, and it kinda seems like he’ll get a lot of ownership at $8,700. He’s a fine play, but not someone I’d like to be all-in on given the potential pitfalls.
Gore is kind of enigmatic, but he’s facing the Angels, so he has our attention again. The strikeouts (25.6%) are solid, and most of his issues have come against his fellow lefties. Even after the deadline, the Angels are still a very righty-heavy bunch, and they’re still striking out at a healthy 25.1% clip vs. LHP without as much power as Texas has (.167 ISO, .324 wOBA). He’s a little cheaper than Detmers, his matchup is a little better, and he hasn’t had the same short leash. While ownership projects I’m looking at have Detmers attracting a bit more ownership, I’ll be quite surprised if Gore is truly the less popular of the two once the cards flip over.
Mike Soroka is coming off the IL after missing time with a butt injury. He hasn’t pitched since June 19, so it must’ve been quite the butt injury. He only made one rehab start, so there’s likely a leash here between 70-80 pitches for a home matchup against the Rockies. I will continue to say the Rockies are not the great matchup they used to be for a righty, because it’s true (.204 ISO, .348 wOBA, 21.5% Ks). $8,200 is on the steep side here, IMO.
Trevor Rogers’ ERA and SIERA are almost identical – both in the 4.20 range – which is about right for an average left-hander. There’s nothing particularly special about his numbers or his matchup here against the Twins. Minnesota hasn’t hit for much power against lefties (.137 ISO) without Byron Buxton, but it’s still a lineup of 8 righties for a pitcher with particularly unimpressive stats vs. RHBs on the year. I’d rather play Rogers at $8,000 than Soroka at $8,200, but both are really just leftovers on this slate.
The last names worth mentioning are Dean Kremer ($6,200) and Jameson Taillon ($5,800), because they are cheap. Kremer gets an instant #RevengeGame against the Orioles, while Taillon draws the Red Sox at home in Toronto. Kremer has allowed a ton of power, but he’s also shown some strikeout ability (23.1%), and the O’s are among the highest-strikeout lineups in the league these days (25.7%). I don’t mind taking a shot on that. Taillon is having a miserable season and looks washed, while the Red Sox have won approximately 215 games since the beginning of July. Sounds like a bad combination, but he’s a $5,800 pitcher who just isn’t as bad as his 5.96 ERA would lead you to believe. I’d rather play Kremer, but Taillon is in the pool for me.
SP Rankings
- Skubal
- Gore
- Detmers
- Kremer
- Mize
- Henderson
- Rogers
- Taillon
- Gray
- Soroka
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Rays (at Jacob Lopez)
- Mets (at Bryce Elder)
- A’s (vs. Freddy Peralta)
- Orioles (at Dean Kremer)
- Astros (at “Blade Tidwell”)
- Phillies (at Hunter Dobbins)
- DBax (vs. Gabriel Hughes)
- Cardinals (vs. Andrew Painter)
- Dodgers (vs. Noah Cameron)
- Angels/Rangers
We had the Rays in Colorado last week, and this week they’ll play a series in Sacramento, starting with a matchup tonight against Jacob Lopez. Lopez was atrocious to begin the season before the A’s sent him down to try and figure it out. He pitched well for the A’s last year, and, since his return from the minors, he’s been fabulous. Lopez hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 5 outings. He has a 32.5% K-rate in that span, too.
Is Lopez a 32.5% strikeouts guy? No. Is he as bad as he was to start the season? Also no. Tampa Bay isn’t a potent offense (.129 ISO, .311 wOBA vs. LHP), so this isn’t safe chalk by any means, assuming they’re chalk. The hitting conditions are still great here, and Lopez has had trouble with right-handed hitters in his career. Junior Caminero is the best hitter on the entire slate when you factor in the matchup, while Yandy Diaz and Ryan Vilade have good numbers, too. Taylor Walls and Carson Williams are attractive salary-savers, while I’m okay with Jonathan Aranda if the lefty-lefty matchup lowers his ownership.
The A’s have a 4.46 total on the other side of that one against right-hander Freddy Peralta. Freddy Fastballs predictably got rocked in his Rays debut last week in Colorado, and this setting isn’t much better. The problem is the A’s are Currently Trash, with Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, and Brent Rooker all on the shelf. Tyler Soderstrom looks terrific, but there isn’t much else to be confident about. I suppose Lawrence Butler, Jonah Heim, Jeff McNeil, and Jacob Wilson are next, but it’s difficult to like!
There ain’t much to like about the Mets sans Juan Soto, either. Bryce Elder Just Keeps Gettin’ Away With It, but this guy is just about as average as average gets. I doubt the Mets will attract a ton of attention here, but I like them as a differentiator if you’re doing something chalky like stacking Tampa. AJ Ewing, Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert, and Bo Bichette are all capable hitters, while Jorge Polanco is just $2,300.
I have interest in punting with Kremer in some lineups, but a guy who’s allowed a .288 ISO and .362 wOBA overall is someone we can stack against. Pete Alonso, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Colton Cowser have the best quality-of-contact numbers vs. RHP this season. The Muscly-Armed Corpse of Tyler O’Neill is playable, too, I guess.
I’m generally not a fan of stacking bats in San Francisco, but Blade Tidwell is a right-hander we can attack, especially with LHBs. Houston has a 4.65 total here, so they’re expected to score some runz. Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena are pricey, but everyone else is cheap. Daulton Varsho, Isaac Paredes, and Yainer Diaz look solid enough for stacks.
Both pitchers in this Phillies-Cardinals game are not great, folks. Hunter Dobbins has allowed more power to his fellow righties, but he’s only striking out 18.7% of lefties with a lower groundball rate. I’d still start with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Luis Arraez, and Bryson Stott from the left side, but I’m cool with the affordable-ish Trea Turner and JT Realmuto in stacks.
Andrew Painter was atrocious for the Phillies before a demotion to the minors. He’s looked a little better in 2 outings since his return, but tiny sample, of course. I want to like the Cardinals more than I do. There just isn’t a whole lot here to like. Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and Bryan Torres have the best numbers vs. RHP, while I’m fine with JJ Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera, mostly because they fill weak positions and hit high in the order.
If there’s an over-owned team on this slate, I assume it’ll be the DBax against Gabriel Hughes. This is a decent prospect who’s pitched pretty well since his promotion, and he won’t have to contend with the elements in this one. The DBax are also just not a good offensive team (.160 ISO, .319 wOBA vs. RHP). The only team with fewer dongs than the DBax is the Brewers. I will happily let the field chase these guys.
Both pitchers in Rangers/Angels will get some ownership, though they’re both volatile southpaws worth stacking against in some lineups, as well. Wyatt Langford, Jake Burger, Justin Foscue, and Elias Diaz (?) have double-digit barrel rates vs. LHP on the year, while Corey Seager has always held his own in same-handed matchups. The Angels are admittedly tougher to stomach, but at least Zach Neto and Mike Trout are established good hitters. Oswald Peraza, Denzer Guzman, Jose Siri, and Travis d’Arnaud all have barrel rate sof at least 12% vs. LHP, too.
You can always stack the Dodgers, but the lineup just isn’t as imposing against left-handed pitching. Andy Pages, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernandez combine for a solid mini-stack, but I am #lukewarm overall.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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