Hello. It is August 7, 2026. On this day in history, King Otto I of Germany was coronated. I hope all of his friends were there. The US also created the Department of War on this day in 1789. It then became the Department of Defense, only to recently turn back into the Department of War. I’m assuming they changed it back because they think it sounds cooler, which is definitely a mature way for adults to make decisions.
The Rockies are back on the road, so we don’t have to deal with Coors Field, while the A’s are in Boston, so we don’t have to deal with West Sacramento, either. I like slates like these, as ownership on the hitting side tends to be more spread out.
This looks like a solid pitching slate, as well. Ownership may congregate in a few spots, but we’re not hurting for viable options there, either. There’s also some potentially dicey weather in the Bronx for Braves-Yankees, which could throw a wrench into things. I hate nothing more than when people throw wrenches into things. It’s uncouth.
Anyway, on to the stuff!
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Friday
- Logan Gilbert ($10,000, vs. Rays)
- Drew Rasmussen ($9,700, at Mariners)
- Nathan Eovaldi ($9,500, vs. Orioles)
- Parker Messick ($9,200, at White Sox)
- Payton Tolle ($9,000, vs. A’s)
- Max Fried ($8,700, vs. Braves)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,500, at Royals)
Looks like a slate for expensive pitching. I don’t really see anyone cheaper than these guys standing out all that much. So, the vast majority of my exposure will be to those at $8,500 and above.
Logan Gilbert headlines the class at $10,000 for a home matchup against the Rays. As has been the case with all Mariners pitchers, he’s been far better at home, even if he hasn’t been impervious to damage there, either. Overall, his 26.6% strikeout rate is fine, and it’s almost identical to his career 26.2% mark, which makes the 32.3% rate he posted last year look like the anomaly. Some of Gilbert’s underlying numbers are better than they were last year – including Stuff+ – but it is what it is. He’s been more good than great in 2026.
The Rays (17.3%) are quite a low-K offense against righties, especially now that they have Liam Hicks and his 7.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Going with “Liam” was an interesting choice. I assume his name is William, so he could have chosen to go by “Bill Hicks,” which makes him sound a lot more like a rugged catcher. Instead, he went with Liam, which makes him sound more like someone who may have scored a club record 256 goals for Fulham back in the 1950s.
Tampa Bay has been decent overall (.170 ISO, .344 wOBA) against righties, as well. I expect Gilbert to be fine, but I don’t think this is a particularly likely spot to find a ceiling, which makes him a tougher sell at $10,000. Let’s see what else is out there.
On the other side of the same game we’ve got Drew Rasmussen at $9,700. He’s really checked all the boxes this season. You won’t find a more thorough box-checker. 26.5% Ks, 4.3% walks, 44.7% groundballs, 3.20 SIERA. Just solid everywhere, if not quite elite anywhere. Seattle was supposed to be potent offensively, but they sure have not been that. On the year, they have a .151 ISO and a .322 wOBA against righties with a 20.2% strikeout rate. Over the last month, they’re down at .120 and .298, respectively, and T-Mobile is the game’s most pitcher-friendly setting.
I keep expecting the Mariners to figure it out. It’s now August, and they continue Not Figuring It Out, so I guess this is just who they are this year. Rasmussen doesn’t have the longest leash, but he’s good, and I prefer his matchup to Gilbert’s, so I prefer him to Gilbert with the discount added on.
Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.31 ERA, and he’s allowed 24 homers, which is a lot of homers for a guy who allowed 10 homers last year. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with Gilbert’s and Rasmussen’s, and his 3.36 SIERA suggests he’s just been a victim of some unlucky dongs. Eovaldi is generally keeping the ball on the ground, too (49.9%). The Orioles are one of the league’s best matchups for strikeouts (26.4% vs. RHP), and they also haven’t been very potent (.153 ISO, .299 wOBA). Most of Eovaldi’s power issues have come against lefties, and Baltimore may have as many as 5 in the lineup here.
Given the matchups, I think Eovaldi is pretty clearly the better play than Gilbert or Rasmussen. He’s also the cheapest of the trio at $9,500, so he’ll presumably come with the highest ownership, as well. I still doubt it’ll be anything crazy like we saw with Ranger Suarez last night, so I don’t mind eating that on a big slate like this one.
Parker Messick has the lowest strikeout rate (24.8%) and highest walk rate (7.2%) of the top 4, but those are still solid numbers. A 3.68 SIERA makes a 2.57 ERA look bound for regression, but Messick has been excellent at dodging barrels and limiting hard contact, which is important in a matchup against a team as thunderous as the White Sox (.202 ISO, .343 wOBA vs. LHP). Chicago will also strike out on ya (23.9%). I think Messick is a solid play, even if he’s not a priority.
If anyone is co-chalk with Eovaldi, I assume it’ll be Payton Tolle at home against the A’s. The A’s are down bad, folks. Without Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, or Shea Langeliers, this team is Bunghole. They’re striking out more than 23% of the time against southpaws with a .163 ISO and a .311 wOBA. Not quite as poor as the Orioles in every regard, but pretty damn poor nevertheless. Tolle, meanwhile, has pitched well, with a 26.4% K-rate, 6.7% walk rate, and a 3.59 SIERA. He’s a flyball pitcher – so he will serve up some dongs – but this A’s lineup is bereft of any right-handed hitters you’re scared of.
Tolle is just a very good play, similar to Eovaldi. Because it’s easy enough to get different with bats, playing a chalky pitching combo isn’t a concern for me on this slate.
Max Fried’s viability hinges on whether the weather holds up. His #RevengeGame against the Braves is a tougher matchup than most of the other pitchers face, but Atlanta also isn’t quite as imposing of a matchup for a left-handed pitcher. Fried (23.4% Ks, 49.2% groundballs) is more of a run-preventer than someone who’ll rack up a ton of Ks, and this Braves lineup is an interesting mix of high-and-low-strikeout bats. They hit for less power against LHP (.178 ISO, .327 wOBA), as well. I don’t think Fried will garner much attention even if the weather makes him playable, so he’s not a bad Tolle pivot for GPPs at $300 less.
Kevin Gausman will make his Cubs debut on the road in Kansas City. He has been more good than great this year, with a 23.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 3.85 SIERA, and 4.38 ERA. The Royals aren’t an imposing lineup (.168 ISO, .313 wOBA, 21.9% Ks vs. RHP). While Kauffman isn’t a bad place to pitch, it is a ballpark that historically suppresses strikeouts. Gausman is a pitcher who’s always had a wide range of outcomes, so I think $8,500 is a fair enough asking price. I won’t take a huge stance either way, though he will be in the pool.
Shane Drohan, Robbie Ray, Shane Baz, Noah Schultz, and George Klassen are also likely to crack my player pool for larger-field GPPs, though I likely won’t have a ton of exposure to any of them.
Schultz ($5,800) and Klassen ($5,000) are pure price plays. PPPs, as Dick Vitale might call them. They’re also both rookies. Diaper Dandies, as Dick Vitale would definitely call them. Schultz is one of Chicago’s top prospects, but he hasn’t pitched particularly well this season. I’m only noting him because he’s cheap, has talent, and he’s a lefty facing the Guardians. Cleveland (.149 ISO, .322 wOBA) has been a targetable offense with lefties all year, and adding Jo Adell at the deadline doesn’t change that much. Schultz is a fine flier if you need to punt.
Klassen has shown decent strikeout stuff at the lower levels along with some wonky control. He gets a park upgrade going into Miami to face a Marlins offense that’s really hit the skids over the last 30 days (.294 wOBA, 23.4% K-rate vs. RHP). Klassen seems to have a pretty full leash, and he’s only $5,000. Playable in large-field stuff.
SP Rankings
- Eovaldi
- Tolle
- Rasmussen
- Messick
- Gilbert
- Fried
- Gausman
- Klassen
- Schultz
- Baz
- Drohan
- Ray
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Friday
- Cubs (at Daniel Lynch)
- Guardians (at Noah Schultz)
- Dodgers (at Merrill Kelly)
- Royals (vs. Kevin Gausman)
- Yankees (vs. Tyler Mahle)
- Red Sox (vs. Jack Perkins)
- Marlins (vs. George Klassen)
- Astros (at Robbie Ray)
- DBax (vs. Roki Sasaki)
- Brewers (vs. Zebby)
- Padres (vs. Ronel Blanco)
- Tigers (at Adrian Houser)
At first glance, I don’t see one stack standing out heads-and-shoulders above the rest. Some of my fellow greybeards may remember Royals lefty Daniel Lynch (now Daniel Lynch IV, pinkies out), who spent a few years in the Kansas City rotation before being banished to bullpen duty in 2024. Well, the Royals apparently want to give him another go as a starter, so he’ll make his first start of the year tonight with the Cubs in town.
Lynch has done fine work against LHBs over the years, but he’s never managed to tame righties (.341 wOBA). For the season, the Cubs have been potent with the lumber against southpaws (.188 ISO, .351 wOBA). Over the last 30 days, they’ve been even more potent (.280 ISO, .423 wOBA). Seems good. Pretty warm weather in KC, so I like this stack quite a bit. Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman, Carson Kelly, Dansby Swanson, and Tyrone Taylor have the best numbers among RHBs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch haven’t had much trouble against same-handed pitching.
I mentioned Schultz among the semi-viable pitching options, but we can also play against him given how poor he’s been, particularly against right-handed hitters. The Guardians sadly lack many of those, but Jose Ramirez, Jo Adell, Rhys Hoskins, and Brayan Rocchio will have the platoon edge here. Cleveland also recently called up top prospect Angel Genao, a switch-hitter with good plate skills and so-so power. Chase DeLauter (.391 wOBA, .142 ISO) has held his own enough against lefties to make the cut, even lefty-lefty. I like Cleveland more than I expected to.
Merrill Kelly has pitched a little better over the last month, but he’s still not great, and he’s facing the Dodgers. The lack of appealing cheap pitching makes it tough to pay up for a full LA stack, but if you can, it’s certainly appealing. Lefties (.248 ISO, .378 wOBA) have raked Kelly across the coals all year. Good news for Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, and Tommy Edman. Ditto for Freddie Freeman if he’s healthy enough to play. No issues with Andy Pages or Mookie Betts from the right side.
The Yankees will face Braves debutant Tyler Mahle at home if the weather holds up. I don’t know what the Braves were doing before the deadline, but something tells me adding Tyler Mahle won’t make their dreams come true. He’s weirdly more reverse-splitsy at this stage of his career, but I’m still prioritizing the Yanks’ big lefties in a ballpark that plays up left-handed power. The Bombers have plenty of that between Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Luis Garcia, Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm, and Ryan McMahon. Because Mahle hasn’t been particularly good against RHBs, Heliot Ramos and George Lombard are perfectly fine, too.
The Red Sox simply don’t lose baseball games anymore, so they’ll presumably put some runs on the board against Jack Perkins and the A’s bullpen. Perkins has allowed plenty of power to both sides (.208 ISO vs. RHB, .174 vs. LHB) despite his solid strikeout numbers. Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, and Jarren Duran are the BoSox hitters with double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP on the year, while Masataka Yoshida, Nick Sogard, Caleb Durbin, and Andruw Monasterio are all affordable. I’m guessing we’ll have some ownership here, though I doubt it’ll be overwhelming.
Klassen is probably one of the slate’s worst pitchers, so Miami, unfortunately, is in play again. I’m as sick of them as you are, but it is what it is. Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, come on down.
Milwaukee is one of the least-powerful offenses in the league, but they still find other ways to do damage. Maybe they’ll tap into some of that power against Zebby, who has yielded an ISO north of .200 to hitters from both sides of the plate this season. LHBs have been more successful overall. Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, and Garrett Mitchell have the best numbers among Milwaukee’s lefties, though I’d still make a point to jam Jackson Chourio into stacks. I guess Christian Yelich is pretty washed. A damn shame.
Gausman is okay, but I think some Royals against him make sense, too. Probably as a mini-stack. Gausman’s historical reverse split makes it a sneaky good spot for Bobby Witt Jr., while I’d surround him with Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen for power.
Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, but we’ve got a couple of attackable pitchers here in Robbie Ray and Ronel Blanco. Ray really isn’t terrible, but the strikeouts are way down and the walks are back up, while he’s always allowed quite a bit of righty power. Christian Walker is really the only Astros righty consistently hitting for power this season, but Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Isaac Paredes are still solid, while I will gladly play Yordan Alvarez against anyone.
Lefties have had a lot of success at Blanco’s expense, so a Jake Cronenworth-Jackson Merrill-Gavin Sheets mini-stack looks decent. Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to have Found It Again, so happy to lop him onto any stack. Ty France (.255 ISO, .370 wOBA) has been the Padres’ best hitter this season, so do with that information what you will.
The DBax have a wide range of outcomes against Roki Sasaki, who has a wide range of outcomes himself. They’re Bad, but Roki is also Sometimes Bad. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Lars Nootbaar, etc. Better mini than full.
San Francisco isn’t a fun place to hit, especially at night, but the Tigers have been thumping right-handed pitching (.190 ISO, .353 wOBA), and Adrian Houser ain’t shit. Lefties have pounded him (.264 ISO, .397 wOBA). Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Max Clark, and Colt Keith will swing it from the left side against him. Dillon Dingler (.302 ISO, .402 wOBA) is a righty, but he is also Cal Raleigh now.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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