Howdy, folks. How ’bout that Argentina? VAR knows no bounds. Should probably be outlawed from the game, if you ask me. Or at least pulled back. C’mon, man.
Anyway, we’re not here to talk about that, we’re here to talk about this. Solid 9-game MLB DFS slate on tap for Tuesday. There’s also a sizable turbo slate if you’re into things of that nature, though the DraftKings prize pools leave plenty to be desired there. They’re hardly great for the main slate, either, but I’m still playing it, for I am a Degenerate.
If you haven’t already, grab yourself a free trial of our fancy MLB DFS optimizer/simulator. Without further ado, let’s ado it.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Tuesday
- Jacob deGrom ($9,500, vs. Angels)
- Robert Gasser ($7,000, at Cardinals)
- Zack Wheeler ($10,500, at Reds)
- Taj Bradley ($8,500, vs. Guardians)
- Hunter Dobbins ($6,700, vs. Brewers)
- Joey Cantillo ($8,000, at Twins)
- Justin Wrobleski ($9,000, vs. Rockies)
- Payton Tolle ($8,700, at White Sox)
- Noah Schultz ($6,800, vs. Red Sox)
So, Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler are the headliners in terms of salary and name brand. Name brand? Brand value? Elton Brand? DeGrom checks in for $1,000 less than Wheeler on DraftKings, plus he’s pitching in meaningfully better context at home against the Angels. Wheeler takes a park downgrade going into GABP to face the Reds.
DeGrom is still great, even at 38. His 30.3% strikeout rate is perfectly cromulent, while the control (5.3% walks) remains stellar. His 3.48 ERA is even a little unlucky, at least compared to his 3.02 SIERA. His weakness this season has been home runs. DeGrom still throws incredibly hard, and opposing hitters have barreled him up 8.6% of the time. He’s supplying the power with that velo, and hitters have been able to get the label to him more than he’d like.
On the flip side, it’s the fucking Angels, who are striking out more than 25% vs. RHP this season. The Halos usually have a lot of power in the lineup, but injuries have watered them down tremendously. What’s left is a bunch of jamokes with a combined .158 ISO and .308 wOBA against RHP. DeGrom is the SP1, though his ownership is likely gonna be uncomfortably high tonight.
I have less interest in Wheeler, though it’s not like I’m fading him completely. Like deGrom, this is an old Met with injury history, though he’s still pitching very well this season (27.3% Ks, 6.5% walks, 46.5% groundballs, 3.32 SIERA). I think deGrom is just the better pitcher at this stage of their respective careers, though Cincinnati (25.5%) is about as strikeout-prone as the Angels are. They have hit for slightly more power, and the ballpark is among the most hitter-friendly in the league. All of that, plus the $1,000 price discrepancy, is enough for me to rank Wheels behind deGrom, though I’ll still have plenty of exposure to him.
Next I’ll skip down to the $7,000 Robert Gasser, who’ll start Game 2 of the double-dip for the Brewers against St. Louis. I’m a believer in Gasser’s strikeout stuff (23.4%), and I think there’s even room for improvement there. He’s shown that strikeout ability against hitters of either handedness. The Cardinals are, admittedly, quite a low-K lot (17%) against lefties, but the power is really concentrated between 2-3 hitters near the top of the order. For the dollar, I think Gasser offers decent upside, so he’ll be among my highest-exposed pitchers this evening.
I suspect we’ll see a bit of Justin Wrobleski ownership, as he’s a lefty facing the Rockies. Eric Lauer was chalk in this spot last night, albeit for $3,000 less. Wrobleski has been wildly lucky this season, a little like Tony Gonsolin a few years ago. His 2.80 ERA is outstanding, but his 4.39 SIERA tells a different tale. Wrobo’s not striking anyone out (17.3%), though Colorado is very high-strikeout against LHP (25.6%). There could be a few extra Ks in the offing for him tonight, and the Rockies only have a 3.33 implied run total. I get why you’d play Wrobleski in a decent spot for run prevention, but I want more than run prevention if I’m paying $9,000 for a pitcher. Meh.
Taj Bradley will take another turn at home against Cleveland. The Guardians are a better offense against right-handed pitching, but that’s not saying much. They’re still wildly low on power (.135 ISO, .309 wOBA), while Bradley (26.9%) has real strikeout stuff. He’s also walking too many, though, especially lefties (11.9%), which could be an issue against a Cleveland lineup with 8 LHBs in it. Bradley’s also allowing a lot of barrels (15.3%) to lefties, so there’s lots of risk/reward with this guy. $8,500 seems about right. I think Taj is a decent play, though I won’t be taking a strong stand one way or the other.
Hunter Dobbins? The right-hander has also shown some ability to miss bats (26%), albeit with high walks (9.6%) and barrels (14.9%). The Brewers are a patient offense, though the top of the lineup is littered with Ks, as well. Dobbins got up to 88 pitches in his last start, so he’s potentially looking at a full leash here. He’s quite similar to Bradley in terms of range of outcomes, but there’s less investment risk at $6,700. I think he’s a solid roll of the dice, too.
I likely won’t have a ton of anyone else. The wheels have really fallen off Jose Soriano after his blazing start, so $9,200 still looks like an overpay. Joey Cantillo and Noah Schultz are passable cheap dart throws. Payton Tolle is one of the more talented pitchers on the slate. The White Sox are an interesting mix of power and strikeouts. There’s potential for Tolle, but $8,700 is on the rich side.
SP Rankings
- deGrom
- Gasser
- Wheeler
- Bradley
- Dobbins
- Wrobleski
- Schultz
- Tolle
- Cantillo
Top MLB DFS Stacks for 7/7
- DBax (vs. German Marquez)
- Padres (at Zac Gallen)
- Phillies (at Andrew Abbott)
- Royals (at Kodai Senga)
- Red Sox (at Noah Schultz)
- Guardians (at Taj Bradley)
- Mets (vs. Seth Lugo)
- Dodgers (vs. Michael Lorenzen)
Interesting spots for offense tonight. The first stop for many may be in Arizona, where we’ve got what would’ve been a pretty awesome pitching matchup in, oh, 2018 or so. German Marquez is set to toe the rubber for the Padres, while the rotting husk of Zac Gallen goes for the DBax.
Safe to say Marquez doesn’t belong on an MLB mound anymore. I have no idea how long they’ll leave him out there, but there’s nothing plus about his skills anymore. Corbin Carroll is probably the slate’s top overall hitter, followed by Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, Max Kepler, and Lourdes Gurriel in AZ stacks.
Stacking the Padres is tougher, as this offense is ass. Something’s gotta give in this matchup. Gallen’s strikeout stuff has completely evaporated, and he’s allowing plenty of power to hitters from both sides. I guess I’ll just keep playing Fernando Tatis Jr. and being disappointed, while I’d otherwise target Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Gavin Sheets in stacks.
The Phillies have an implied run total on the right side of 5 against Andrew Abbott. Abbott can be annoying to stack against, but he’s a low-strikeout flyball pitcher in a home-run park. Trea Turner is the headliner here for me. I’m still happy to get to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper against a low-strikeout lefty, followed by Alec Bohm and JT Realmuto.
Kodai Senga has been nightmarishly bad when healthy this season, with a .275 ISO and .393 wOBA allowed. He’s also got major control problems and a 12.4% barrel rate allowed. The Royals are another Not Good offense, but Carter Jensen and Bobby Witt Jr. are capable. I’d get to Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas, and Jac Caglianone next.
The Mets face old friend Seth Lugo, who sure doesn’t seem to be any good anymore. While Lugo has allowed more power to RHBs this year, I still have most confidence in New York’s lefties – Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, AJ Ewing, Carson Benge, and Jared Young.
I mentioned Bradley’s issues with lefties and that the Guardians are really nothing but lefties these days. I doubt anyone will want to stack Cleveland, but I like ’em a little here. Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo, Kahlil Watson, and Cooper Ingle look the best for stacking.
I guess it took me too long to get to the Dodgers against Michael Lorenzen, but here we are. The issue with the Dodgers is always the salaries, but they’re great if you can afford them…obviously. Lorenzen has been blitzed by LHBs (.275 ISO, .441 wOBA), so Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Dalton Rushing, Tommy Edman, and Kyle Tucker are all in great spots.
Noah Schultz is a decent lefty prospect, but righties have hit him hard. The problem with the Red Sox is finding anyone you want to play. Ceddane Rafaela, Willson Contreras, Romy Gonzalez, and Caleb Durbin are the RHBs of note here.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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