Howdy, folks. I had a colonoscopy yesterday. Went well, thanks for asking!
Anyway, we’ve got a beefer of a 12-game MLB DFS slate on tap for tonight. It will either be fun or an utter disaster; there’s no in between. Something tells me it’ll be on the fun side, especially if you use our MLB DFS sims to build your lineups. We’ve added a bunch of new features and are constantly adding more, so give it a whirl for free.
Let’s bake some bread, shall we?
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Friday
- Nolan McLean ($9,400, vs. Red Sox)
- Robbie Ray ($6,800, vs. Rockies)
- Sean Burke ($7,400, vs. A’s)
- Sandy Alcantara ($8,000, vs. Guardians)
- Chris Sale ($10,700, at Cardinals)
- Zebby Matthews ($7,800, vs. Angels)
- Hunter Greene ($8,600, vs. Cubs)
- Sonny Gray ($8,800, at Mets)
- Shohei Ohtani ($11,000, vs. DBax)
- Parker Messick ($9,200, at Marlins)
- Hunter Brown ($10,000, at Rangers)
- Shota Imanaga ($7,600, at Reds)
Aye god, Woodrow, look at all the damn pitchers on this slate. It’s a smorgasbord. The funny thing is we’ve got 3 guys priced up above $10,000, yet I don’t have a ton of interest in any of ’em.
Shohei Ohtani headlines the bunch at $11,000 for a home date with Arizona. Ohtani’s strikeout rate has held firm in the 28% range just about all year, and he’s had more control issues than he did last season. A 7.6% walk rate still generally isn’t something to fret over, though. Ohtani’s SIERA (3.34) is still quite a bit higher than his ERA (1.79), and the latter should continue to regress.
He’s awesome, of course, and Arizona has been a surprisingly weak offense this season vs. RHP (.151 ISO, .310 wOBA). They still don’t strike out much, though (17.5%), so it’s probably not the spot to be hunting ceiling from Ohtani. For $11,000, you need ceiling.
Chris Sale is still awesome at 37, though his strikeout rate (28.6%) is also about 4% lower than it was in 2025. Like Ohtani, his SIERA (3.15) is higher than his 2.27 ERA, but he’s still just excellent in every regard. His matchup against the Cardinals is almost identical to Ohtani’s. It’s a fine one for run prevention – St. Louis’ lineup has a collective .155 ISO and a .340 wOBA vs. LHP – but the Cards are also a high-contact bunch against LHP (16.9% Ks). I expect Sale to put up a fine score in this one, but will he put up the score we need from him at the $10,700 salary? Questionable.
Hunter Brown ($10,000) rounds it out for a road matchup in Arlington. His 27.3% K-rate is in line with Ohtani and Sale, but walks (13.3%) have been a huge issue for him in limited time this year. He’s never had elite control, but I also see no reason to believe he’ll continue to be that erratic. While he’s still a great pitcher, his swinging strike rate (9.6%) also pales in comparison to that of the other aces. Texas strikes out more often than the DBax or Cardinals – and they’re still not all that imposing – but I’m also not really a buyer in what Brown is selling. I’m pretty much completely out on him.
Nolan McLean ($9,400) is shaping up to be the chalkiest expensive option for a home matchup against the Red Sox. McLean has rounded back into form of late after a rough patch, and this Boston lineup may not have Willson Contreras tonight. McLean’s numbers (28% Ks, 8.8% walks, 3.50 SIERA, 9.8% swinging strikes) are about in line with the other aces, but the discount is handy. Most importantly, the Red Sox suck bigly offensively, especially if Contreras is out (.288 wOBA, .140 ISO, 22% Ks vs. RHP). I am a little concerned about McLean’s potential ownership – so he’s hardly a must-play – but I do like him the most among these expensive lads.
I suppose we can skip down to the $6,800 Robbie Ray at home against the Rockies. Ray certainly is not what he used to be. The former Cy Young winner has a measly 20.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate, and 4.83 SIERA on the season. He was formerly an elite source of strikeouts. That seems to be gone, but his old control issues are still there. Not great, Bob.
The Great Equalizers are the salary and the matchup in a very pitcher-friendly setting. Colorado has been an underrated offense this season vs. right-handed pitching, but they haven’t replicated those results against southpaws (.142 ISO, .323 wOBA, 26% Ks, 6% walks). The lack of patience is crazy. Kyle Karros and TJ Rumfield are the most patient hitters against lefties this year, but they’re both sporting just 8.2% walk rates. It’s generally Ray vs. himself more than it’s ever Ray vs. the opposition. The issue is Ray just isn’t very good anymore, and he’s shaping up to be the cheap chalk. I will be treading very lightly here, if I play him at all.
Sandy Alcantara is also a former Cy Young winner, but that guy probably isn’t coming back, either. Not that he was ever an amazing strikeout pitcher, but his 17.8% K-rate this year is awfully weak. He still has excellent control with a groundball lean (45%), but there’s nothing about the numbers to suggest he’s any better than an average pitcher these days. He’s at the mercy of BABIP, just like every other guy who can’t miss bats.
He’s pitching at home – so that’s cool – and the Guardians are a very weak offense in general right now with Jose Ramirez out (.134 ISO, .303 wOBA, 21% Ks). Cleveland has a 3.4 total in this one, as well. Alcantara is playable because he’s $8,000, but there’s a chance that $8,000 salary is still more than he’s worth.
The other pitcher in that one – Parker Messick – is clearly the superior one now. He’s been awesome. The 3.66 SIERA is more pedestrian than the 2.80 ERA, but everything else looks excellent. The 25.8% K-rate will do just fine. The issue? The Marlins are good now. They’ve thwacked LHP to the tune of a .211 ISO and a .349 wOBA this season. It’s a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but we’re getting no discount on Messick at $9,200. I’ll probably have a few shares in multi-entry, but again, I’m not really into it.
Hunter Greene – Hunter Brown’s Wario – comes in at $8,600 ahead of his second start of the season at home against the Cubs. $8,600 is too cheap for a pitcher of Greene’s caliber in a vacuum, but I don’t think we live in vacuums. Greene threw 89 pitches in his debut last week. He got roughed up by the Orioles in that one, but the swinging strikes (16.9%) and Stuff+ (113) were both great.
Greene was amazing last year (31.4% Ks, 6.2% walks, 3.06 SIERA), so I assume that guy will turn up again at some point. The rust he showed in the last outing isn’t a huge surprise, and there’s certainly risk here in his hitter-friendly home park against a very capable Chicago offense with some thunder (.172 ISO) and a particularly high walk rate (11.2% vs. RHP). Greene is on my shortlist, mostly because I’m a believer in his talent and the $8,600 price tag is a clear underpay if he rounds back into form.
Zebby Matthews ($7,800) is $200 cheaper than Sandy for a home matchup against the Angels. It feels like we pick on the Angels every day, because they’re one of the highest-strikeout lineups in the league (25.1% vs. RHP). Zebby – which surely must be short for “Zebediah” – showed some strikeout stuff in the past, but this year’s K-rate is sitting at just 20.5%. All the underlying stuff is average, too. Zebediah has allowed lots of power (.213 ISO), while we know the Angels have some of that (.176 ISO vs. RHP) now that they’re getting healthier. Matthews is fine, but again, I don’t have a lot of confidence here!
Sean Burke ($7,400) has pitched well this year (25.8% Ks, 8% walks, 3.71 SIERA), and he’s underpriced for those numbers ahead of a home start against the A’s. We do generally prefer targeting the A’s with left-handers, as they’re a lower-strikeout offense (19.1%) against RHP. That said, they have been pretty light on power (.158 ISO), especially at the bottom of the order. The A’s run total of around 4 isn’t necessarily low, but Burke is solid and likely won’t attract a ton of ownership. I like him a bit.
Sonny Gray has really picked it up over the past month after a tough start to the season. His K-rate is up to 30.6% over the past month with low walks (5.6%) and a decent groundball lean (46.9%). The Mets are another offense we’ve been picking on all year, though their numbers are more average (20.3% Ks, 8.7% walks, .164 ISO) than actively bad. Gray is also pretty fully priced at $8,800. Not thrilled!
Shota Imanaga is worth a shout on the other side of Greene’s matchup. Of course, the matchup with the Reds is tricky, and Imanaga’s flyball skillset is far from ideal in one of the game’s best parks for homers. The strikeout numbers for both Imanaga (24.1%) and the Reds (25% vs. LHP) make him an intriguing value at only $7,600. There’s a lot of risk of ruin, though, given Imanaga’s .214 ISO allowed combined with Cincy’s .230 ISO, .357 wOBA, and 14.6% barrel rate vs. left-handed pitching. Hard to get more high-risk/high-reward than this! Though the risk is mitigated a bit by the salary. Seems like an obvious situation to get onto both sides of.
SP Rankings
- McLean
- Greene
- Sale
- Burke
- Matthews
- Alcantara
- Imanaga
- Ray
- Gray
- Messick
- Ohtani
- Brown
Best MLB DFS Stacks for July 10
- Reds (vs. Imanaga)
- Cubs (at Greene)
- Orioles (vs. Luinder Avila)
- Royals (at Brandon Young)
- Rays (vs. Luis Castillo)
- White Sox (vs. Jacob Lopez)
- Astros (at Cal Quantrill)
- Twins (vs. Grayson Rodriguez)
- Angels (at Zebediah)
- Braves (at Kyle Leahy)
- Blue Jays (at JP Sears)
- Dodgers (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez)
- Giants (vs. Tanner Gordon)
- Rockies (at Robbie Ray)
Just like on the pitching side, there’s A Lot of Stuff, but nothing really stands out as obviously better than anything else. Complicated!
I suppose we can start at Great American, where both offenses have implied run totals of around 4.75. I’m interested in both pitchers, but both offenses are also firmly in play. If there’s something I like the most, it’s probably the Reds given their aforementioned prowess against left-handed pitching combined with Imanaga’s vulnerability, especially in a ballpark like this.
Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer, Eugenio Suarez, and Noelvi Marte all have ISOs well north of .200 this season against lefties, which are astronomical numbers. JJ Bleday (.197) isn’t far off that pace despite being a left-handed hitter himself. Imanaga has actually allowed slightly more power and barrels to same-handed hitters, which makes Bleday a sneaky-great play alongside the right-handed sluggers, assuming he’ll go largely overlooked by the field. If I were playing one lineup, I’d probably 5-man the Reds.
The Cubs are trickier, just because Greene is a legit ace when he’s right. He’s had power issues in the past, including last season against lefties (.224 ISO, 13.6% barrels). That’ll put Chicago’s lefties on my radar – Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto.
After that, it gets tougher. The KC-BAL game has some potential with a couple of mediocre righties on the mound. Luinder Avila has shown some reverse-split tendencies from the right side, which isn’t necessarily ideal for us considering most of the Orioles’ best hitters are left-handed. I’d probably still start stacks with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Coltown Cowser from the left side along with the very obvious Pete Alonso from the right. Samuel Basallo is, as always, a fine Rutschman alternative.
Baltimore’s Brandon Young has been excellent vs. RHBs, but the strikeouts have evaporated against lefties. Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, and Vinnie Pasquantino look solid with the platoon advantage, while I’m always prioritizing Bobby Witt Jr. regardless of splits.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.25 ERA this season, somehow, which looks wildly fraudulent compared to his 4.86 SIERA. He’s managed to strand 86% of baserunners, which tells the story. He’s also managed to limit power despite a 9.2% barrel rate. You’d think regression would be likely in a matchup on the road against the Dodgers. If you’re doing something like pairing Robbie Ray with Sean Burke, it’s pretty easy to pay for them, especially since we can’t play Ohtani as a hitter. Max Muncy and Kyle Tucker are sneaky lefty-on-lefty hitters with long track records of success, plus E-Rod has had a pretty major reverse split for his entire career. I’ll otherwise fill it in with Mookie Betts, Andy Pages, and Teo Hernandez from the right side.
The Astros look like a solid stack against the mediocre Cal Quantrill. He hasn’t pitched horribly for Texas, but it looks like he’s been lucky. Lefties (14.1%) are barreling him up. Music to the ears of Yordan Alvarez, arguably the top hitter on the slate. Most of the other good Astros are right-handed, but Quantrill hasn’t exactly been a shutdown guy vs. RHBs over the years. Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, and Cam Smith are next in stacks.
The Blue Jays are in pitcher-friendly Petco, but I do like the matchup against the homer-prone lefty, JP Sears. The Jays have admittedly been dog all season, but I still trust George Springer, Ernie Clement, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, and Alejandro Kirk against a mediocre southpaw.
The Twins without Byron Buxton rarely leap off the page, but they have still been quite solid (.191 ISO, .339 wOBA) without him against righties. Grayson Rodriguez has also pitched pretty miserably since returning from injury, presumably because he’s got that Angels Stank on him now. Lefties have lit his scrotum on fire (13% barrels, .321 ISO, .496 wOBA) in a limited sample. Good news for Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, and *checks notes* Alan Roden? Sure man.
I mentioned Zebediah’s issues with power this season to hitters from both sides. I never mind getting to the Angels’ power bats – Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell. Even Vaughn Grissom has hit pretty well this year.
I’m not sure if the Braves’ offense is any good, but they are facing a weak right-hander in Kyle Leahy. Most of his issues have come against LHBs, so Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and Mike Yastrzemski is a 5-man I like a good amount.
Both sides of the COL/SF game are interesting, even in a pitcher’s park. Robbie Ray will be wildly chalky, so the Rockies are a viable stack, even though they’ve sucked ass vs. LHP all season. A Hunter Goodman/Cole Carrigg/Kyle Karros mini-stack looks pretty appealing. Jake McCarthy has hit his fellow lefties well, too, in a 70-PA sample.
Tanner Gordon isn’t good, while the Giants (.191 ISO, .342 wOBA) have quietly transformed into a pretty solid offense. Gordon’s weakness is against LHBs (.455 wOBA, .382 ISO), so Rafael Devers, Jung Hoo Lee, Bryce Eldridge, and Luis Arraez look pretty appealing. Gordon hasn’t exactly been lights-out vs. RHBs, keeping Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, and Casey Schmitt very playable.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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