Hello! What a weekend it’s been. How bout that Flo Balogun, huh? Finally, our Big Wet Dipshit President is using his shameless corruption for the greater good. About time!
There’s also some baseball being played tonight, so I guess we should talk about it. 7 games on the board, and the main slate kicks off a bit earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET. If you haven’t already, I suggest you check out our special MLB DFS optimizer/simulator, to which we’re adding new bells and whistles all the time. Portfolio optimization is on the horizon, which will be a wonderful addition for those of you playing multi-entry GPPs.
Without further ado, On To The Stuff.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (7/6)
- Griffin Jax ($7,500, vs. Yankees)
- Cam Schlittler ($11,000, at Rays)
- Landen Roupp ($8,300, vs. Blue Jays)
- Shane Drohan ($7,300, vs. Cardinals)
- Eric Lauer ($6,000, vs. Rockies)
- Reynaldo Lopez ($7,100, vs. Mets)
- Kevin Gausman ($9,000, at Giants)
- Walker Buehler ($7,500, vs. DBax)
- Dustin May ($7,700, vs. Brewers)
- Mike Burrows ($6,500, at Nats)
Not a terrible group of pitchers, especially for such a small slate. I suspect Cam Schlittler will be a rather popular choice despite his hefty $11,000 DK salary. Schlitty gets a park upgrade going into St. Pete to face the Rays, who are a pretty average matchup in most regards (.159 ISO, 18.8% Ks, 10.1% walks vs. RHP). Schlittler has been terrific (29.7% Ks, 5.1% walks, 42.9% groundballs). His only real weakness is allowing some barrels (8.6% overall). His 2.99 SIERA tells us his 2.08 ERA will continue to regress, but a 2.99 SIERA is elite in its own right.
The question, of course, is whether we need to fork over $11,000 for this guy tonight. Given the lack of comparable alternatives at the top, I’m fine with playing him. He clearly has the highest ceiling on the slate, and he’s really the only guy out there capable of putting up a score you can’t win GPPs without.
Griffin Jax takes the ball on the other side of the matchup. He has pitched well, with a 23.4% strikeout rate next to a 3.89 SIERA. Jax has also done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, especially against righties, though he has allowed some left-handed power. The Yankees are nothing if not laden with left-handed power these days (.180 ISO vs. RHP), though they’re certainly less imposing overall without Aaron Judge. The issue is the Rays keep Jax on a very tight leash. He hasn’t topped 88 pitches since moving into the rotation, and he was yanked from the last game after just 71 pitches and 6 innings. On the flip side, he’s only $7,500, so you’re not really paying for a guy who needs to go out there and mow everyone down over the course of a full 100-pitch workload. I am very in on Jax in all formats here.
Landen Roupp has seen his ERA fly up to 4.55, though his 3.91 SIERA tells us he’s been a bit unlucky. Roupp’s 26% K-rate is the highest of his career, though walks (10.5%) have been an issue. I like that he’s pitching in his pitcher-friendly home environs tonight against a very low-power version of the Blue Jays (.143 ISO, .316 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching). Toronto isn’t a high-K lot (19.5%), but I’m okay with the trade-off. Roupp is solid, just $8,300, and the matchup is good. Good play in all formats, IMO.
Kevin Gausman on the other side of that one is a bit more expensive at $9,000. The veteran will still spike an occasional big-strikeout game, but overall, he’s pretty average in that regard these days (23.9% Ks, 5.7% walks). Gausman is a capable pitcher who won’t often get blown up, though the Giants have been sneaky-powerful this year against RHP (.192 ISO, .343 wOBA). Gausman has allowed more power to righties, and that reverse split should help him against a Giants team with more power from the left side. San Francisco is also the lowest-walk team in the league, so Gausman should breeze his way through some easy innings here if the ballpark helps him. I think he’s passable, but I also don’t really see the need to force it at a $9,000 salary.
Shane Drohan has given the Brewers some good innings since joining the rotation. Tonight’s outing against the Cardinals will be his first against a non-Reds opponent in a couple weeks. Overall, the left-hander has a 24.5% K-rate, 7.5% walk rate, and a 3.62 SIERA. I think it’s pretty legitimate. St. Louis is a very low-strikeout bunch against lefties (16.7%), but they’re also light on power (.141 ISO). It’s a similar matchup to Roupp’s against Toronto. Drohan is still nice and cheap at $7,300, as well. I slightly prefer Jax in this range, but Drohan is similar in many regards. It’s just not a great spot for hunting a big strikeout-related score.
Eric Lauer? This man is just $6,000 and facing the Rockies outside of Colorado. His overall numbers on the season leave a ton to be desired (14.7% Ks, 8.4% walks, 5.28 SIERA), but he has, predictably, looked better since coming to LA. Colorado is also just a horrendous lineup against left-handed pitching (.143 ISO, .320 wOBA, 26.8% Ks, 4.9% walks). I do not buy that Lauer is good, but the Dodgers are giving him a full leash, and he’s just really cheap for a guy facing such a dreadful offense. I think Lauer is very playable, though I’m still reluctant to look his way in anything outside of large-field, multi-entry GPPs.
Reynaldo Lopez just isn’t very good despite his mirage of a 3.31 ERA. Of course, we can also say that of the lowly New York Mets. They are certainly better with Francisco Lindor back, though, and Lopez has had serious control issues vs. left-handed hitters (17.4% walks). New York can throw 6 LHBs his way. Lopez is affordable, I guess, at $7,100, but I prefer others in his price range.
Walker Buehler, Dustin May, and Mike Burrows have all had moments this season. Burrows has been wildly splitsy, and his issues with lefties make the matchup against the Nationals look downright terrifying. Plus, there are potential weather issues in that game. Dodger legends May and Buehler get passable enough matchups against the Brewers and DBax, respectively. May has been absolutely torched over his last 2 starts on the heels of a terrific month. The real May is likely somewhere in between, but I’m not in love with him against the lefty-heavy Brewers. Arizona continues to be a low-strikeout offense vs. RHP (18.2%), but they’re also not all that imposing (.152 ISO, .310 wOBA). Buehler has been respectable this season, with particularly solid numbers against lefties. Arizona’s best hitters are lefties. I’d play Buehler before I’d play May, but neither is a priority, either.
SP Rankings
- Jax
- Schlittler
- Roupp
- Drohan
- Lauer
- Gausman
- Buehler
- Lopez
- May
- Burrows
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Nationals (vs. Burrows)
- Astros (at Miles Mikolas)
- Rockies (at Lauer)
- Mets (at Lopez)
- DBax (vs. Buehler)
- Brewers (at May)
- Cardinals (vs. Drohan)
- Padres (at Brandon Pfaadt)
Weather permitting, the game in Washington looks like a pretty good one for bats. Burrows has done fine work against righties, but his numbers against LHBs (15% Ks, 10.6% walks, .252 ISO, .410 wOBA, 10.7% barrels) are ghastly across the board. Ghastly!
Naturally, the Nationals’ best hitters are the lefties. James Wood (24.7%) has an Ohtanian barrel rate vs. right-handed pitching, though Luis Garcia, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, and even Jose Tena are all at 9% and above. Curtis Mead and Dylan Crews won’t have the platoon edge here, but I don’t mind them in your full WAS stacks.
Houston faces Miles Mikolas, arguably the worst starting pitcher in the sport. Mikolas is entirely reliant on BABIP and groundballs. His numbers otherwise against hitters of either handedness are miserable. Mikolas is very clearly no match for Yordan Alvarez, while Christian Walker, Cam Smith, and Taylor Trammell are all consistently barreling the baseball vs. RHP. You can still play Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, who typically hit near the top of the order.
I made the case for playing Lauer, but this is not a great pitcher by any means. Dodger Stadium ain’t Coors Field, but it is a better park for home runs than Coors. Hunter Goodman, Cole Carrigg, and Kyle Karros have been the best Rockies against southpaws. Willi Castro should lead off, at least. If you just want to play Goodman, I have no qualms.
I like the Mets against Lopez and his aforementioned troubles with left-handed hitters. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge, Jared Young, and AJ Ewing will all swing it from the preferred side of the plate. Ewing is a particularly good value if he leads off. Stolen base upside there, as well.
The Padres are not a good baseballin’ outfit, especially offensively, but Brandon Pfaadt continues to have trouble keeping the ball in the yard. Lefties have really raked him over the coals (.286 ISO, .402 wOBA, 13% barrels). Unfortunately, the Padres’ lefties are lackluster (Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets, Jake Cronenworth), but that’s not a bad mini-stack. I’d still get to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in full stacks, as Pfaadt is still yielding plenty of thunder to RHBs.
Buehler has been quite reverse splitsy, but I’d still prioritize Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo if I’m getting to any Arizona.
I’m not dying to pick on Drohan and that Milwaukee bullpen, but Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, and Nelson Velázquez make a pretty good mini-stack vs. the LHP.
Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich look pretty good against May, though I never mind getting to Jackson Chourio regardless of pitcher handedness.
Godspeed out there.
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Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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