Hello! Split slate today, but we’re here to talk about the 7-game main slate. There’s a chance that becomes a 6-gamer depending on the weather in St. Louis, so we’ll see about that.
If you haven’t already, check out the MLB DFS Builder, which you can access for a full week, free of charge. I’m short on time, so in to the stuff we go.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (7/9)
- Nathan Eovaldi ($9,700, vs. Angels)
- Jesus Luzardo ($9,000, at Reds)
- Framber Valdez ($7,300, vs. A’s)
- Reid Detmers ($8,300, at Rangers)
- Janson Junk ($6,800, vs. Mariners)
Folks, that’s really it. There are approximately two good pitchers on this slate – Nathan Eovaldi and Jesus Luzardo – and I suspect both will be heavy chalk as a result. Both are over $9,000, but you’re not gonna feel great about anyone else, so we’re probably looking at a minimum of 40% ownership on both on DK.
Eovaldi’s 4.02 ERA may not look amazing, but his underlying numbers are far more impressive. His 25.2% K-rate is in line with last year’s 26% mark, and the career-best 14.8% swinging strike rate tells me there’s actually more there we just haven’t really seen. The walks are low. The only real blemish is the left-handed power he continues to allow (10.3% barrels, .204 ISO). The Angels are laden with Ks (25.6%), and there’s no lefty power of which to speak in this lineup. They do have some menacing righties, but Eovaldi has been lights-out against same-handed hitters all season. I’m not worried about this, so he’s the SP1.
Luzardo gets a park downgrade going into Cincinnati. His matchup isn’t quite as fun, as the Reds have been among the most powerful offenses in the sport (.247 ISO, .375 wOBA) vs. southpaws. Luzardo has just been electric in all facets, though. He’ll have his occasional meltdown start – and maybe that happens tonight given the Reds’ prowess against lefties – but Cincy is another high-K offense (24.3% vs. LHP). Luzardo’s spot isn’t quite as clean as Eovaldi’s, but he’s still significantly more appealing than the 3rd-best pitcher on the slate.
I suppose Framber Valdez and Reid Detmers are the lefties vying for 3rd. Strikeouts have never really been Framber’s game, though his 17.6% K-rate this year is still well below his career average. The groundball stuff is still solid (52.3%), but that’s also down quite a bit from his career rate, which hovers closer to 60%. Valdez still hasn’t yielded much power, though, and the Athletics have been a much higher-strikeout lot against lefties (24.9%). The A’s do have quite a bit of thunder (.220 ISO), so it’s a similar spot to Luzardo’s, albeit in a more pitcher-friendly park in Detroit. Plus, Framber is only $7,300, which is a meaningful discount.
Detmers (27.1%) is up there with the highest-strikeout pitchers on the slate. Like Eovaldi, his SIERA (3.63) is a lot better than his ERA (4.13), but this is a talented pitcher who’s run into some bad luck. The Rangers (20.8% Ks, 9.9% walks, .192 ISO vs. LHP) aren’t a great matchup, but the park is pitcher-friendly. Detmers is a fine play at $8,300. I’m more neutral on him than anything else.
Janson Junk isn’t particularly good, but he’s also only $6,800 for a matchup against Seattle. It’s…fine. I’d rather just find the $500 for Framber.
SP Rankings
- Eovaldi
- Luzardo
- Valdez
- Detmers
- Junk
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Thursday
- Phillies (at Brady Singer)
- Mariners (at Janson Junk)
- DBax (at Griffin Canning)
- Padres (vs. Merrill Kelly)
- A’s (at Framber Valdez)
- Tigers (vs. Jose Suarez)
I suspect the chalk will be the Phillies, who get a park boost going up against Brady Singer in Cincinnati. Singer’s 2026 got off to a nightmarish start, though he has been far better over the last month (25% Ks, 6% barrels). He isn’t a gas can historically, though I’d still trust the Phillies enough to knock him around a bit. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are very obvious headliners, though Brandon Marsh is right up there with them if you take only this season’s numbers. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm would be next on my list, while Gabriel Rincones Jr. is nice and affordable.
Junk has allowed plenty of lefty power this season, so Seattle’s gang of LHBs – Raleigh, Raley, Naylor, Young, Emerson, Crawford – look pretty good here, even in a more pitcher-friendly park.
Both pitchers in the AZ/SD game look attackable. Griffin Canning has dominated his fellow righties, but lefties (.246 ISO, 13% barrels) have had their way. Offenses in Petco tend to underwhelm, but I’m still into Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, and Max Kepler here.
Merrill Kelly has just been a fucking disaster all year, but so have the Padres. What to do!? I’d still side with the Padres, even though they are, in fact, quite miserable. Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Gavin Sheets.
Valdez isn’t a guy who’ll usually get lit up, but I’m always game to hunt for power with the A’s – Zack Gelos, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Colby Thomas, and Jonah Heim (?) have good numbers on the year.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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