I said Friday’s article would be the last of the season, but, apparently, I underestimated the potential that I’d be bored enough by Tuesday to want to get some action in the MLB DFS playoff streets. Contests look pretty decent on the sites, so why not? This is a staggered 4-gamer starting around 1 PM ET, so we’ll have to wait for lineups to trickle in throughout the day. We shouldn’t see too many weird lineups considering it’s the postseason, but staying on top of the news is a little more necessary today than it is on your typical MLB slate. I guess we can use it as a warmup for NBA.
Anyway, 4 games out there, and no shortage of aces, as you’d expect. Let’s get after it.
SP1 – Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell
These lads are the only pitchers priced up above $9,000 on DraftKings. As you’d expect, Tarik Skubal ($10,000) is the headliner as the Tigers head to Cleveland to take on the Guardians in the first game of the day. I reckon it’s worth noting this will be Skubal’s second straight outing against Cleveland. For the year, the Guardians are only striking out 21.8% of the time vs. LHP, but it’s a little misleading. Steven Kwan (8.6% Ks) and Jose Ramirez (9.7%) really bring down the numbers. 6 of the other 7 hitters in the Guardians’ lineup today have struck out at leat 26% of the time vs. lefties, so it’s a favorable spot for a guy with a 32.1% K-rate for the season. Cleveland is also very low-power (.146 ISO). Skubal could be extreme chalk, but he’s also the most likely pitcher to put up a score you can’t win without.
Garrett Crochet ($9,700) gets a much more daunting spot in the Bronx against the Yankees. While I do prefer targeting the Yanks with lefties, this team just has a ton of power (.237 ISO vs. LHP). Crochet has been pretty matchup-proof. He racked up at least 7 Ks in each of his 4 starts vs. NYY during the regular season, including games of 11 and 12 strikeouts, respectively, in his last couple of outings against the Bombers. While I think he’s always a good play, the matchup is so much stronger for Skubal that the $300 difference between the two is negligible.
Blake Snell ($9,200) will take the ball for the Dodgers at home against the Reds. Snell has as much K upside as any pitcher on the slate (28.2%), though the walks (9.8%) always present significant downside. I like the matchup against Cincy, who’s striking out nearly 24% of the time vs. LHP along with almost no power of which to speak (.119 ISO). They’re also not that patient, as Tyler Stephenson and Matt McLain are the only hitters with double-digit walk rates against southpaws. I will have exposure to Snell because I will likely have exposure to all 8 pitchers on this slate, but he’s not a priority.
SP2 – Hunter Greene, Gavin Williams, Max Fried, Matthew Boyd, Nick Pivetta
Everyone on this slate is good, of course, but we have to have some dividing lines. Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta will square off against each other at Wrigley, and they’re the ones in whom I’m the least interested. Boyd gets a tough draw against a very low-strikeout Padres lineup (16.9% vs. LHP). Pivetta’s spot isn’t easy against the Cubs, and we know San Diego won’t hesitate to get their high-octane bullpen involved as early as they possibly can.
The most interesting pitcher on the slate is probably Hunter Greene. The numbers (31.4% Ks, 6.2% walks) are about as good as those of Skubal and Crochet, yet he’s only $8,200 thanks to a tough matchup in LA. This is the best home run park in baseball, and Greene is a flyball pitcher. Regardless, I think I’ll be over on his projected ownership, even against a tough offense. I’d rather pay $8,200 for Greene than $9,700 for Crochet if I’m targeting an elite lineup today.
In terms of exposure, I’m actually getting to Gavin Williams ($7,000) more than anybody else at home against Detroit. I assume it’s a price thing, as Boyd is the only cheaper pitcher on the slate. Williams’ 24.6% K-rate is fine, but his 11.8% walk rate is worrisome. The Tigers are pretty neutral offensively. There are some strikeouts (24.4%), but also some power (.181 ISO). I will likely manage Williams’ exposure to prevent him from being the pitcher to whom I wind up with the most exposure, but I do think he’s a pretty good play, especially at what should be pretty low ownership.
Max Fried ($8,700) is priced just below the SP1s for a home date with Boston. The Red Sox are more targetable with lefties (22.4% Ks, .174 ISO), though Fried is more of a groundballer (52.6%) than a guy who’ll rack up tons of Ks (23.6%). I do like the discount, though, which pushes him past Snell and Crochet for me today.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Tarik Skubal | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Hunter Greene | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Max Fried | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Gavin Williams | ✅ | ✅ |
| 5. Garrett Crochet | ✅ | ✅ |
| 6. Blake Snell | ❌ | ✅ |
| 7. Matthew Boyd | ❌ | ✅ |
| 8. Nick Pivetta | ❌ | ✅ |
Primary Stacks – Padres, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox
It’s hard to have too much faith in any of these offenses with a bunch of aces and good bullpens out there, but it is what it is. If you’re shooting for the moon – which is kinda the point of this game – I think you always have to consider the Yankees. It’s not like we want to pick on Crochet, but he has allowed an 8.5% barrel rate to righties, even if he’s done a fine job of limiting power overall. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the obvious standouts whenever the Yankees face a lefty, followed by Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe. While Austin Slater and Amed Rosario are viable, they’re also likely to be pinch-hit for whenever Boston brings a RHP out of the pen.
Both sides of the Padres-Cubs game could be popular, as these are probably the weakest starters on the slate. The issue is San Diego is a pretty low-power lineup, especially without Ramon Laureano. Manny Machado is the only hitter actually slugging vs. LHP this season, though I’d still get to Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, and Jake Cronenworth early and often if stacking. Righties have given Boyd legitimate trouble.
Pivetta has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate, and he’s a flyball guy. I’m wary of this spot given the Padres’ bullpen, but we can’t really get too picky on this slate. Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Carson Kelly are solid values. I don’t mind paying up for Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki in stacks.
I’m primarily looking to get to Boston’s RHBs against Fried – Rob Refsnyder, Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Romy Gonzalez. Nick Sogard is a fine punt if he cracks the lineup.
Secondary Stacks – Dodgers, Reds
I suppose you can put the Dodgers in the same category as the Yankees in terms of lineups we can viably stack any day. As of now, I have plenty of Greene, but hedging that ownership with Dodgers stacks obviously makes sense. Lefties do have a 12.4% barrel rate and a .200 ISO vs. the right-hander, so step right up, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy.
It’s always Blake Snell vs. himself as much as it is Blake Snell vs. the actual opponent. If he’s putting guys on the basepaths with walks, Cincinnati can put some crooked numbers on the board. Plus, the Dodgers’ bullpen is a little dicey. Noelvi Marte, Miguel Andujar, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson, and Spencer Steer all have decent enough profiles vs. LHP.
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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