UFC Freedom 250 probably seems silly to some, but there’s no denying this UFC fight card is absurdly awesome. We get seven awesome fights, two epic title fights, and a chance at winning big at DraftKings.
Trying to piece together winning MMA DFS lineups for this slate? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll give you my three favorite fighters to target and my favorite Captain play. Let’s build!
🥊New to MMA DFS? Slate Overview
- Best value play: Michael Chandler. Cheapest fighter and finishing upside.
- Best GPP pivot: Sean O’Malley. Cheaper than Ruffy and projects to be low-owned.
- Top stud: Topuria/Ruffy. Huge favorites with the top two projections of the slate.
- Safest fighter: Ilia Topuria. Top projection, highest ceiling, and -470 bet to win.
- Biggest Upset risk: Diego Lopes. This fight is pretty even and Steve Garcia is on a heater.
Best MMA DFS Picks for UFC Freedom 250
- Ilia Topuria ($9.6k)
- Josh Hokit ($9k)
- Alex Pereira ($7.4k)
Topuria has had a long layoff, as well as some personal issues. But he’s also in his physical prime, eight years younger than Justin Gaethje, and simply the better fighter. He has the edge in just about every regard and is a big betting favorite here. You can always roll with Gaethje for the upset, but he already had his moment. Topuria is about to remind everyone how good he really is.
Hokit isn’t as clean of a fighter nor as safe of a pick, but he’s one of the better bets on a card that leaves little room for error. Hokit isn’t for everyone in terms of personality, but he’s dynamic, punishing, and can actually wrestle. I think he’s a bad matchup for an aging Derrick Lewis, who got worked by Waldo Cortes-Acosta last January.
We do need to save cash somewhere, and my favorite spot to do that is with Poatan. Some had written the Brazlian off after losing to Magomed Ankalaev, but he rebounded to TKO him in a rematch last October. He is clearly still at the top of his game, while his striking poses a serious challenge for Ciryl Gane.
I respect Gane’s talent and physique, but he’s the inferior fighter, not much younger, and really hasn’t delivered in huge moments like these. I doubt he’s going to start now.
🥊New to MMA DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, are usually favored to win, and score takedowns/rack up strikes/and or have a clear path to an early finish. The goal with an MMA Core isn’t to save you cash. It’s to get you three high upside wins that leave enough room to build out the rest of your lineup.
Since there are just seven bouts on the docket, you need to pick one guy to be the Captain to bring things home. My top pick in terms of safety and ceiling is Topuria, but Hokit is a pretty sneaky play that should be less owned in the CPT slot.
- 🟢 SAFE Topuria. Stacked card with absolute bangers. Anything can happen but he’s likely a lock.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST Everyone else. There are good picks to be had, but nothing is guaranteed.
Sneaky MMA DFS GPP Pivots for UFC Freedom 250
🥊New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his/her upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Michael Chandler ($5k)
- Steve Garcia ($6.6k)
Michael Chandler is on his last legs as a professional MMA fighter. He’s 40 years old, while he’s gone an unsettling 1-5 over his last six fights. They’ve largely been entertaining, and we know he can unleash a lot of damage and still possesses elite finishing ability.
I don’t feel super confident Chandler will take out Ruffy, but there aren’t many contrarian (or cheap) paths to take. I’ll get to him a bit since he saves so much salary and should still deliver some production even if he loses.
An even better play is Garcia, though. Diego Lopes is feisty, and his only two losses since 2023 have come against Alexander Volkanovski, but it’s possible he’s running into trouble here. Garcia is no slouch, as he has 15 career KO wins and hasn’t tasted defeat since 2022. I think we get to a point where these dudes stand and trade. If that happens, my money is on Garcia pulling off the mild upset.
If you need more help with your basic strategy, check out our MMA DFS guide.
MMA DFS Strategy for UFC Freedom 250
Topuria is a very good CPT pick, but he’ll be popular there. I like pivoting to Hokit or saving with Pereira, while Garcia’s price and finishing upside also put him in my crosshairs. A seemingly low-owned Ruffy should also be on your radar, especially at Captain.
This is a weird card in that it doesn’t have a ton of fights, so we need to not just get our picks right, but we really need to make it count in the CPT slot.
Since there aren’t many bouts, I’m putting less onus on getting different. Whoever I play here has to win and they have to win big. In terms of sheer projections, Topuria, Ruffy, and Hokit look like the best options.
In terms of win rate, the math checks out the same. In terms of finish rate, ditto. I think I am starting with that trio, with Topuria being the main play and Hokit being the sneaky pivot. If I want to get more creative and focus on ownership edge over safety, guys like Sean O’Malley and Bo Nickal quickly look very appealing.
🥊Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to MMA DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Narratives can be a thing. Guys fighting for a title shot. Fighters battling in front of their home crowd. UFC debuts. The list goes on. Know what goes into each bout and what is on the line for every fighter before you click their name.
- Know fighter styles. MMA DFS is very nuanced. What style fighters use, how often they get finishes, how their defense is – all of this plays into their salary, projection, value, and odds of winning. Make sure you know the fighting styles and path to production for both fighters before making your pick.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- 5 round fight. The main event offers a little more upside, depending on the fighter. In theory, the more rounds you fight, the more points you can accrue. But don’t forget about fighter styles and how they generate points. For instance, if your fighter doesn’t get takedowns, he better get a lot of strikes or land a finish at some point.
- Upset special. Upsets happen in MMA (a lot). Not every upset is worth targeting, though. Try to put a good amount of logic/reasoning behind big swings. Ie, what is the path for this underdog to win, and how likely is it? Just as importantly, if they don’t win, how likely are they to get upset, or can they accrue points in a Decision loss?
- Who to target: Lastly, make sure you prioritize fighters who can get takedowns, rack up strikes, secure control time, end fights quickly, and grind out wins. All of those things matter and if you can combine some of them, even better. If your pick can only get you one of those things, you might want to keep looking. If they can’t get you any of those things, your decision is made a lot easier.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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