Monday’s MLB DFS slate was a particularly awful one for yours truly. Luckily, today is a new day. We’ve got a bigger 11-game slate on tap for tonight, and things look pretty spread out on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
Let’s not waste any more time and dive on in! Also, check out Sleeper:
SP1 – George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber, Emmet Sheehan, Luis Garcia, Michael King, Spencer Strider
Our gang of high-end aces isn’t quite as acey as it was last night, but we’ve still got several solid options. George Kirby gets a nice home draw against the Cardinals. He’s been far better at home than on the road, and St. Louis is a very low-power lineup (.144 ISO) against righties. This is the best pitcher’s park on the slate, as well. Kirby isn’t as high-strikeout as even Bryan Woo (23.5%), but he’s typically steady enough. A $10,000 salary is a bit cumbersome, so let’s see what else is out there.
Shane Bieber is at home against the Astros, while Luis Garcia gets the Jays on the other side of the matchup. Both pitchers have barely pitched all season due to injury, but they’ve both been solid early on. The issue with Garcia is I’m typically not a fan of picking on Toronto’s high-power, low-strikeout lineup, so he’s barely cracking the list. Bieber (32.3% Ks) looks like the 2020-21 version of Bieber that was the game’s best pitcher. We generally prefer righties against Houston, but this is another low-strikeout lineup (18.8% vs. RHP) that looks a little more imposing with Yordan Alvarez now back healthy. All things considered, I prefer Kirby to Bieber.
Robbie Ray is at home against his old mates, the DBax. The ballpark is excellent, but even this post-deadline version of the Diamondbacks isn’t striking out against lefties (16.7%). They’re also pretty patient (9.1% walks), and Ray’s a guy who’s always struggled with control. His strikeouts are also down to 24.7% on the year and 19.5% over the last month. I fully expect Ray to be fine as a flyball pitcher in a park that kills flyballs, but we’re paying top dollar for a subpar situation.
Michael King hasn’t pitched in over a month as a result of a knee injury, and that short August outing was just his first at the MLB level since May. He didn’t even head to the minors for a ramp-up, he just pitched a few simulated games. We’re getting no discount here, and the matchup vs. Cincy is neutral. Given the likely pitch limit, I’m out.
Emmet Sheehan is at home against the Rockies. We saw Tyler Glasnow destroy these dopes last night, and Sheehan has solid numbers across the board (26.8% Ks). The control is erratic against lefties, but Mickey Moniak and Yanquiel Fernandez are the only LHBs in Colorado’s lineup these days. We don’t have any pitch count concerns here anymore, and the Rockies are the Rockies. Sheehan will quite possibly be the chalkiest pitcher from this tier at just $9,000 on DraftKings, and I can’t really argue he shouldn’t be.
Spencer Strider has a 9% strikeout rate over the last month. That’s equal to his walk rate, and lower than his barrel rate. Even against the hapless Cubs, no thank you.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Emmet Sheehan | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. George Kirby | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Robbie Ray | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Shane Bieber | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Luis Garcia | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Spencer Strider | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ |
| 7. Michael King | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ |
SP2 – Zebby Matthews, Cade Horton, Chad Patrick, Yoendrys Gomez, Zac Gallen, Jack Leiter
The list of SP2s is pretty long and not awful. I feel like I write up Zebby Matthews every other day or so, and tonight he’s in Anaheim to take on the Angels. The Angels are a high-K lineup (25.6%) against righties, while Matthews’ 26.6% K-rate puts him up there next to the best pitchers on the slate. Most of his power issues have come against lefties, and Luis Rengifo is the only LHB in the Halos’ lineup of which to speak. As has been the case for eons, Zeb’s still underpriced for his skills at $7,700. Playable in all formats.
Zac Gallen gets the nice park bump going into SF. His strikeout rate for the last month is 10% higher vs. righties than lefties, and the Giants project to throw 5 LHBs at him. These hitters have also been in flames in recent weeks, though Gallen’s own performance has improved, too. $8,400 is a reasonable enough asking price, and I think he’s playable at what should be limited ownership.
Cade Horton is another guy who’s really stepped it up over the last month (29.5% Ks), while the Braves have tanked in the same span. He’s had some issues with power against lefties, which is not ideal against an Atlanta team with some legit left-handed power, but $8,200 is arguably an underpay despite some risk.
Chad Patrick has pitched pretty well all year (23.8% Ks, 7.4% walks), and he gets the Rangers on the road. While Texas has played pretty well of late, injuries have this lineup looking rough (.133 ISO, .309 wOBA vs. RHP). I have some pitch count concerns considering he hasn’t topped 90 pitches in an MLB outing since June, but $7,000 is a cheap salary and I like the spot.
Jack Leiter is a high-end prospect, and he’s looked like one over the last month (29.5% Ks). The walk rate is still too high, and he’ll yield some power to lefties. The Brewers, while pesky, really aren’t a high-powered offense, though they also don’t strike out a ton (18.9% vs. RHP). I prefer Zebby in this tier, but there’s upside on Leiter’s $7,500 price point.
The last name worth a shout here is Yo Gomez at home against the Rays. His Ks are also on the rise (25.5% over the last month), but control (11.3% walks) is an issue. Tampa Bay doesn’t strike out (18.8%) or walk (6.6%) much, though most of their power is concentrated between a couple of hitters. I’m willing to take some shots on Gomez thanks to the $6,200 salary in multi-entry.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Zebby Matthews | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Chad Patrick | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Cade Horton | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Zac Gallen | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Jack Leiter | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Yoendrys Gomez | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, A’s, Twins
The Dodgers let us down big time last night, which seems to happen *checks notes* every day. Regardless, they’re the top offense again tonight vs. German Marquez and those lowly Rockies relievers. Marquez is kinda just Antonio Senzatela at this stage of his career but without the groundball skills. Lefties are the standouts – Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman – but always good with Will Smith and Mookie Betts from the right side.
Jeffrey Springs gets the ball for the A’s tonight. We’ve said all year Boston doesn’t profile quite as well against lefties, but the ballpark is elite and there’s some value in this lineup. Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez, and Rob Refsnyder have prolific numbers vs. LHP, while Ceddane Rafaela has hit for power (.209 ISO). This is probably my favorite spot on the board, assuming the Dodgers pull higher ownership.
Something called a “Connelly Early” is taking the ball for Boston tonight. This is a lefty making his MLB debut. He’s actually one of Boston’s better pitching prospects, and he was a good mix of strikeouts and groundballs at the lower levels. There’s still a lot of power in the A’s lineup, and Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Colby Thomas have all raked lefties. Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom remain in the pool for stacks.
Zack Littell is about as average as it gets, and he’s allowed a ton of power to both sides all season. I’m generally not a fan of bats in this ballpark, but San Diego is a deep lineup and they should be lower-owned. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are always the standouts, followed by Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Jake Cronenworth, and Luis Arraez.
The Twins went pretty nuclear last night, and tonight they face noted geriatric, Kyle Hendricks. Lefties are really pounding him lately – Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, come on down! – but Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, and Royce Lewis are excellent RHBs for stacks.
Secondary Stacks – Giants, Angels, Yankees, Rays, Tigers, Mariners
I mentioned Gallen’s troubles against lefties and the fact that the Giants have plenty of those to throw his way. I kinda just like a Rafael Devers one-off more than anything else, but Drew Gilbert is decent enough.
Both sides of the Yankees/Tigers game are facing decent pitchers in Casey Mize and WIll Warren, but these are 2 powerful offenses in a decent setting for lefty power. Trent Grisham is my favorite of New York’s hitters here, but the lineup is talented enough to fully stack. Against Warren we much prefer LHBs, so Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith is a nice 3-man.
The Angels are always good for power-hunting – Trout, Adell, Ward, Neto. The Rays get a wild pitcher who’s had some issues against lefties, in particular. Good spot for Various Lowes while I’m into Junior Caminero against pertty much anybody.
The Mariners against Matt Liberatore are expensive, but I like the righty power bats as one-offs or a mini – Arozarena, Rodriguez, Suarez, Dumper.
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