Another MLB DFS slate is upon us, albeit with a smaller main slate at DraftKings. One of our Discord members had a nice $250 win last night, and the goal is to keep the good times coming.
Let’s get things started off right with a look at the top arms to target on this slate, and be sure to check out our best MLB DFS stacks for tonight as well.
SP1 – Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, Shohei Ohtani
Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan are the priced-up aces, while Kevin Gausman and Ohtani are both under $9,000. Brown draws the Red Sox at home, while Ryan gets the Yankees in the Bronx. Both matchups are tough, but Brown’s overall numbers are superior. Brown’s 30.1% K-rate leads the slate, though he’s down to 25.6% over the last month. I’m still trusting the larger sample, but Boston is an average strikeout foe (21.3%) with good power (.194 ISO, .342 wOBA). Far from a perfect matchup to be paying north of $10,000 for a guy, but I’m still getting to Brown as a core piece in all formats.
Ryan is really just a secondary consideration for me at $9,600 against a Yankees lineup with lots of lefties. Ryan’s very splitsy (32.8% Ks vs. RHB, 23.3% vs. LHB), and New York can throw 6 lefties at him. They do have a higher team K-rate than the Red Sox (24.7%), albeit with tons of power risk (.242 ISO). We’re getting no discount for Ryan, but he’s worth playing in GPPs on a fairly limited slate.
Gausman gets the Cubs at home, which is also a tough spot. This guy is a total mystery box on a nightly basis. He’s pitched like an ace (31.6% Ks, 4.1% walks) over the last month, but he’ll also have his random meltdown outings, as we saw a few starts ago against the A’s and then again 2 starts ago against KC. I’d rather pay $8,800 for Gausman against the Cubs than $9,600 for Ryan against the Yankees, so that’s where I am with it. Nothing in the top tier is gonna feel great.
If anyone’s underpriced for their skills, it’s Ohtani ($8,000) against the Angels. The issue is the Dodgers are slowly building him back up, and the 54 pitches he threw in his last outing were a season-high. We’re likely looking at 60ish maximum from him tonight, and that’s a tough sell at $8,000. I’ll play a little bit of him because he’s a guy with a 33% K-rate facing an Angels lineup with a 26% strikeout rate, but he’s a secondary GPP play, at best.
SP2 – JT Ginn, Cam Schlittler, Walker Buehler
Things are dire on the SP2 front tonight, but I like the savings you get with JT Ginn ($6,800) at home against the Rays. He’s been very splitsy (33% Ks vs. RHB, 17.8% vs. LHB), so a Rays lineup with 5-6 lefties brings some risk, but whatever. Pitching is butt on this slate, and he’s cheap with some upside against a pretty mediocre TB lineup. I’ll have an uncomfortable amount of him.
Schlittler would be my next preference at home against the post-trade deadline Zombie Twins. Strikeout stuff has been average while the walks are too high so far, but he’s a hard thrower who could offer a little more K upside against Minnesota. There’s quite a bit of power in this lineup he’ll have to navigate, but the risk is mitigated by the $7,000 salary. I prefer Ginn, but I’ll also have a good amount of Schlittly.
Buehler is a dart throw at $6,000 against an Astros team resting Carlos Correa. He’s not good, but he does have a groundball lean, and one thing Houston does quite a bit is hit the baseball on the ground. I’ll have a sprinkling of Buehler in multi-entry for the savings, as he’ll help me afford some of the slate’s big bats.
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Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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