Hello, and happy Tuesday. We have a painter coming in today to paint some of our walls. Kinda feels like a task I could Simply Do On My Own, but I’m also quite certain I’d fuck that up and wind up spilling paint all over the carpet, or something. Painting the walls is pretty high-stakes work, so we decided it’s best left to the professionals. Can’t wait for it to smell like paint in here, gonna be fantastic.
Last night’s slate sucked a rather large amount, but last night’s slate is also old news and never coming back. Today is a new day. Breathe it in deep. Not too deep, though, because there are noxious paint fumes in our midst.
On to the stuff!
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (6/16)
- Hunter Brown ($10,000, vs. Tigers)
- Gerrit Cole ($9,500, vs. White Sox)
- Logan Gilbert ($9,300, vs. Orioles)
- Davis Martin ($9,000, at Yankees)
- Drew Rasmussen ($8,800, at Dodgers)
- Reid Detmers ($8,700, at DBax)
- Edward Cabrera ($8,600, vs. Rockies)
- Framber Valdez ($7,700, #RevengeGame at HOU)
- Robert Gasser ($5,500, vs. Guardians)
This pitching pool doesn’t look quite as dire as last night’s, but it still ain’t great, folks. Hunter Brown checks in at the top of the pile at $10,000 for a home matchup against the Tigers. If you haven’t thought about Hunter Brown in a while, you’re not alone, as this will be his first appearance on a major-league mound since the end of March. Here’s a list of things that have happened since Brown last toed the rubber at the highest level:
- A bunch of humans flew in a rocketship around the moon, for some reason
- Noah Simpson thought about how childish the term “rocketship” sounds
- The Knicks and Hurricanes won championships
- Noted dipshit Spencer Pratt was hilariously humiliated
- Hantavirus was in the news for like a week
I thought there’d be more, to be honest, but I’m already wasting a bunch of time with this thing today. Brown has made 4 rehab starts in the minors, topping out at 78 pitches in his most recent outing. He is undoubtedly one of the most talented pitchers on the slate (28.3% Ks, 3.39 SIERA last season), though I assume he’ll be held to around 90 pitches if things go well enough tonight against Detroit. There are some Ks in this Tigers lineup (23.6% vs. RHP), but $10,000 is no discount.
Gerrit Cole will take another turn, this time at home against the White Sox. Chicago has been a solid offense this season, though this is another team with some Ks in the lineup (22.3% vs. RHP). Cole himself hasn’t looked great, with a K-rate barely north of 20%, a 4.41 SIERA, and some diminished peripherals. It’s a 35-year-old coming off a major injury, so it’ll be interesting to see when (if?) he’ll start to bounce back. He was only at 25.4% Ks in his most recent full season. I suppose Cole is playable, but I don’t see much to get excited about, especially at a $9,600 price point.
I’d much rather take the $200 discount to play Logan Gilbert instead. We’ve been doing this shit all year with Gilbert, and he hasn’t been very consistent. I think his 25.5% strikeout rate this season is more real than last year’s 32.3% mark, while he still has elite control and a good 3.53 SIERA. I do think Gilbert should find more strikeouts moving forward, but he’s also been barreled up a lot more (11.6%) this season. Seattle is the most pitcher-friendly setting on the slate, while Baltimore (23.3%) is among the highest-strikeout lineups in baseball. The O’s also have plenty of power (.179 ISO), and this will be Gilbert’s second straight go-around against them. Not a perfect context for Gilbert, but I do prefer him to Brown and Cole among the expensive guys.
Davis Martin and Drew Rasmussen get tough draws at the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. I do think Rasmussen is a borderline ace, so you can make the case to play him even in a brutal spot, but I do wish he were cheaper than $8,800 for this. I’m not nearly as bullish on whatever’s going on with Martin. While he has clearly improved, I’m not paying $9,000 for this against the Yankees.
Reid Detmers has been like $7,000 all season, but the DK pricing algorithm finally got the message and yanked him up at $8,700 for tonight’s start in Arizona. Detmers (29.3% Ks, 3.27 SIERA) has been terrific all season, and I’m a believer. He’s been able to pile up the Ks against hitters from both sides. The problem tonight is that Arizona is the lowest-K lineup in the league vs. left-handed pitching (14.2%), and they’ve flashed some pretty good power (.196 ISO, .355 wOBA). Good pitcher, but it’s not really a spot to hunt for a ceiling. He and Rasmussen are very interesting GPP plays.
Edward Cabrera gets the nod for the Cubs at home against the Rockies. Colorado has been a more potent offense against right-handed pitching, while they’re also striking out a bit less (22.9%) with some decent patience (9.7% walks). The strikeouts haven’t really been there for Cabrera (21.6%), while his 8.6% walk rate is still slightly north of league average. He’s also been barreled up nearly 13% of the time. The winds in this one aren’t clearly helpful to pitchers or hitters, and this will be Cabrera’s second straight start against Colorado. This is another pitcher who should see his strikeout numbers improve moving forward, but if he’s chalk because of the matchup, I’m not that into it.
Framber Valdez will toe a familiar mound tonight in Houston against the Astros. Framber’s never been an elite source of strikeouts, but his K-rate is down considerably to 17.9% from 23.3% a season ago. He’s always had kinda borderline control, while his groundball rate (49.6%) – while still solid – is down sharply from his career 60.9% clip. The Astros also really haven’t been a bad offense this season. I think Valdez is cheap enough to consider in a large-field entry, but doesn’t stand out enough to be a standout, by any means.
The only other pitcher in whom I have significant interest is Robert Gasser, who is again a wee $5,500 as he prepares to face the Guardians at home. Gasser’s numbers in the bigs this season (21.8% Ks, 10.3% walks, 6.38 ERA) are not particularly good. That 4.80 SIERA isn’t, either. As I say every time I bring this dude up, he had excellent strikeout stuff at the lower levels. It hasn’t translated to the top level consistently, but we’re still dealing with small samples. His leash is pretty full at this point, and I don’t really think anyone’s gonna play him. Cleveland is a pesky offense, but they are also a sneaky high-K lot against lefties, with most of their better hitters also being left-handed. All of Rhys Hoskins, David Fry, Travis Bazzana, Stuart Fairchild, and Gabriel Arias have struck out more than 28% of the time vs. LHP this season. Gasser is super cheap, pretty good, and in a favorable spot. The Guardians also haven’t hit for any power (.132 ISO) vs. left-handed pitching. It’s gross, and it feels incredibly bad, but Gasser will be one of my highest-exposed pitchers.
SP Rankings
- Gilbert
- Gasser
- Brown
- Rasmussen
- Detmers
- Cole
- Framber
- Cabrera
- Martin
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- Mets (at Brady Singer)
- A’s (vs. Mitch Keller)
- Pirates (at Jack Perkins)
- Angels (at Merrill Kelly)
- DBax (vs. Reid Detmers)
- Reds (vs. Kodai Senga)
- Cubs (vs. Ryan Feltner)
- Rays (at Justin Wrobleski)
There is a chance we get something like Mets Chalk Night for their matchup against Brady Singer at homer-friendly GABP. Singer is one of the league’s most weathered punching bags this season, allowing a .261 ISO, .397 wOBA, and 11.3% barrel rate overall. He’s always been pretty attackable with lefties – hello Soto, Young, Benge, Ewing, and Melendez – but he’s been arguably even worse this year against RHBs. New York’s righties aren’t great – Marcus Semien? Francisco Alvarez? – but they’re playable. The Mets are also pretty cheap, so I suspect they’ll be a popular pairing in lineups that have 2 expensive pitchers.
The Reds waxed the Mets’ pitching last night, and tonight they’ll face Kodai Senga, a talented righty who’s had a ton of injuries over the past couple of years. There’s no telling what version of Senga will show up tonight, but I still like power-hunting here with some of Cincy’s heavy hitters – JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, and Eugenio Suarez.
The A’s were a GPP-winner last night, while the Pirates…were not. We’ve still got hot weather in Sacramento tonight with a couple of average pitchers squaring off. Mitch Keller is best attacked with LHBs, so fire up Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes, and Lawrence Butler again. Jack Perkins seems to have a large reverse split from the right side. That’s not great for a lefty-heavy Pirates bunch, but they will be lower-owned than they were yesterday. Brandon Lowe and Tyler Callihan (tiny sample) lead the way in barrel rate vs. RHP, while Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz, and Ryan O’Hearn would be next on my list.
Merrill Kelly is pretty obviously washed up. His 87 Stuff+ is the worst of his MLB career, and left-handed hitters (.304 ISO, .402 wOBA) have lit him on fire. Unfortunately, the Angels have zero good lefties, unless you think Wade Meckler is good. He has been good, I’ll give him that, but I don’t really think he’s good. I’d still play him here because I think Merrill Kelly is worse, and I’d probably just stick with the few good hitters around him in the order – Trout, Neto, Adell, and, I guess, Schanuel.
Arizona is an interesting play on the other side of that one. It’s not a high-percentage stack against Detmers, but I like some of these guys against lefties, notably Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Nolan Arenado, and Geraldo Perdomo. Detmers has been a little reverse-splitsy over the years, so it’s a sneaky-good Corbin Carroll matchup.
Uh, Cubs, I guess? Chicago has a healthy 5.5 total here against Ryan Feltner. Feltner’s 2026 numbers are far worse against RHBs, but the longer sample says lefties will have more success. I’m not getting much exposure to the Cubs, and I feel fine about it. If I do play them, I’d still lead with PCA, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ.
I don’t htink Justin Wrobleski is good, so I like a Rays mini-stack of Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda.
Other Stuff
- White Sox vs. Cole – Montgomery, Vargas, Antonacci, other Montgomery
- Yankees vs. Martin – Rice, Dominguez, Jazz, Bellinger
- Braves vs. Houser – Harris, Olson, Baldwin
- Giants vs. Holmes – Devers, Arraez, Chapman, Adames, Schmitt, Eldridge…I like this more than I should
- Brewers vs. Cecconi – Chourio, Yelich, Turang
- Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Andre Pallante
- Cardinals vs. King – Wetherholt, Burleson, Walker
- Byron Buxton vs. Kumar Rocker
- Rangers vs. Zebby – Langford, Nimmo, Jung
- Mariners vs. Young – Raleigh, Rodriguez, Arozarena
- Shohei Ohtani vs. Drew Rasmussen
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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