Hello! Another Monday is upon us. We are mercifully done with this year’s edition of the Las Vegas Athletics, though given the weather in Sacramento tonight, it looks like we’re not fully done with them overall. Welp!
As always, I’ll offer a detailed breakdown of the pitchers and stacks worth targeting on tonight’s slate. Looks like a decent one at first glance, so let’s have a good time, shall we?
Best MLB DFS Pitchers for Monday
- Chase Boo-urns ($11,000, vs. NYM)
- Shota Imanaga ($8,500, vs. COL)
- MacKenzie Gore ($7,800, vs. MIN)
- Dustin May ($7,300, vs. SD)
- Kai-Wei Teng ($7,000, vs. DET)
- Ryne Nelson ($6,500, vs. LAA)
Chase Burns is the ace of the slate for a favorable draw at home against the Mets. The ballpark isn’t favorable, but the Mets certainly are. Burns checks most of the boxes (29.6% Ks, 7.7% walks, 3.23 SIERA), and, as I say every time in the Chase Burns breakdown, there are probably more strikeouts in the offing than he’s shown so far based on his stellar Stuff+ and swinging strike rate. The Mets have been largely punchless with the bats all year (.150 ISO, 22% Ks). While Burns’ K-rate is higher (32%) against lefties, the same is true of his walk rate (11.1%), while he’s also yielding some power to opposite-handed bats (9.4% barrels, .192 ISO).
New York has 6 lefties to throw his way. Juan Soto and Jared Young have excellent numbers vs. RHP this season, but that’s about it. I think the ballpark and the $11,000 salary keep Burns from being anything close to a must-play, but this is also a pretty thin slate for pitching. I’ll be heavily invested in Burns, though he’s unlikely to be my highest-owned arm. I will also – for better or worse (probably worse) get to the Mets a little.
We’re getting a whopping $2,500 discount from Burns to the next-most-expensive pitcher, Shota Imanaga, who gets the Rockies at home. While it’s better to face the Rockies away from Coors, we do have some hitter-friendly Wrigley wind in this one. Imanaga has been up-and-down lately, which is kinda his whole deal. The strikeout stuff is solid (24.8%), but he’s a flyballer who’ll serve up some dongs. On the bright side, Colorado has been extremely atrocious (.137 ISO, .307 wOBA, 25.2% Ks) against left-handed pitching. Hunter Goodman is a pretty decent bet to take Imanaga on a one-way trip to Dongtown, USA, but you’re not really nervous about anybody else in grey tonight.
Even with the wind, Imanaga will be one of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate, and he’ll be one of my highest-owned, too.
Ditto for MacKenzie Gore. Not really liking this pitching slate, friends! Gore has a similar K-rate to Imanaga (24.6%), albeit with more walks (10.7%) and general mediocrity (4.15 SIERA). There aren’t many plus skills here, but he will take the mound in a pitcher-friendly park against a Twins team lacking punch against southpaws (.128 ISO, .321 wOBA). Minnesota’s projected lineup is entirely right-handed, which actually plays into Gore’s hands as a lefty with pretty staunch reverse splits. Gore is cheap enough that he’ll be pretty heavy chalk. It’s not very good chalk, but given the context of the slate, it’s chalk I’ll be eating.
Most of my lineups will have combinations of those top 3 pitchers. Dustin May has been good for a while now, and the DK pricing algorithm is taking the scenic route to catching up. Over the last month, the Cardinals’ Waluigi-esque right-hander has a 32.3% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate, and 54.4% groundball rate. A pitcher with those numbers for the season would be an $11,000 ace, yet this man is $7,300 ahead of a home draw against the lackluster, no-good, brown-wearin’ Padres.
May’s K-rate for the season is still just 21.9%, but he’s always had awesome stuff, and it’s always been a mystery why he has never really put up huge strikeout numbers as a result. San Diego is also just a very weak offense (.155 ISO, .300 wOBA), even if they’re just a neutral matchup for Ks. I don’t think May’s 32% strikeout rate over the last month is Just Who He Is Now, but I also don’t see enough red flags to make me very nervous. May will probably be somewhat popular, but that’s fine on this slate.
Kai-Wei Teng had a bad time in his most recent outing against the Angels, and tonight he’ll take on the Tigers at home. Teng’s strikeout stuff is decent (22.8%), but it’s really just a matter of whether he can find the strike zone. That 11.2% walk rate is certifiably not tubular, and I think he’s just kind of average overall. I’m not necessarily nervous about a guy facing the Tigers, but Teng is only $300 cheaper than May, and I just think May is the much more talented pitcher. Teng is a large-field leftover, IMO.
I’m also interested in Ryne Nelson at just $6,500 against an Angels team still striking out at a healthy 24.4% clip against righties. The Halos are also pretty banged up these days, so any power they have is concentrated heavily between the first 3-4 hitters in the order. The bottom of the lineup is full of fake names you see on the field 25 years into your MLB The Show dynasty. I suppose it’s worth noting that Nelson hasn’t been very good this season (17.5% Ks, 4.78 SIERA), but he has better stuff than the numbers would have you believe. I like the salary and the matchup enough to say he’s my No. 5 option overall, which, I guess, counts as an endorsement?
SP Rankings
- Imanaga
- Gore
- Burns
- May
- Nelson
- Teng
Best MLB DFS Stacks for June 15
- Pirates (at JT Ginn)
- Cubs (vs. Michael Lorenzen)
- DBax (vs. Walbert Urena)
- Dodgers (vs. Nick Martinez)
- A’s (vs. Jared Jones)
- Tigers (at Teng)
- Angels (at Nelson)
- Rockies (at Imanaga)
- Mets (at Burns)
So the A’s aren’t playing in Vegas anymore, but their ballpark in Sacramento is still among the most hitter-friendly in the league. Tonight they’ll host the Pirates, who have been much improved with the lumber this season. Pittsburgh isn’t quite at full strength with Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz both on the IL, but this is still my first stop for offense tonight.
JT Ginn is a pretty good pitcher, but his overall numbers are still lackluster against LHBs. Pittsburgh has a few pretty good ones in Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Bryan Reynolds, and Endy Rodriguez, while Tyler Callihan has impressive numbers in a small sample. I like pretty much everything here.
The A’s side is a little less interesting as they’ll face the better pitcher (Jared Jones), but the A’s do still have an implied run total north of 5. Small sample, but Jones has been rocked by lefties (.333 ISO, .498 wOBA, 18.2% barrels), which bodes well for Nick Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, and Carlos Cortes on the SAC side of things.
I suspect the Cubs will probably be the chalkiest stack on the board with the winds at their backs for a matchup against the dreadful Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is another RHP getting trashed by left-handed bats (.309 ISO, 14.5% barrels, .484 wOBA), so Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto find themselves in excellent spots. Lorenzen has weirdly held righties in check this year, which is contrary to his career numbers. I don’t mind getting to Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman, or Nico Hoerner in stacks.
I mentioned Hunter Goodman being a terrific play on the Colorado side against Imanaga, as he’s really the only Rock…y (?) with remotely good numbers vs. LHP. Cole Carrigg is a prospect with some pedigree, while Ezequiel Tovar, Willi Castro, Tyler Freeman, and Kyle Karros will all hit from the right side. Worth noting the Rockies are simming quite well in the Builder, which makes sense given the weather and Imanaga’s likely status as chalk.
Arizona has a healthy 4.7 total against Walbert Urena. Urena’s 4.65 SIERA is a lot more mediocre than his tidy 2.44 ERA, but I do think Urena is a decent pitcher. His main issue is finding the strike zone, as his 13.6% walk rate is among the ugliest on the slate. Urena is otherwise keeping the ball on the ground and really stifling power. Walks won’t win you GPPs, either. I’m okay with a dusting of the DBax’ heavy hitters (Carroll, Marte, Moreno, Arenado), but this team could be a little over-owned.
The Dodgers are back home and facing Nick Martinez, a man who consistently outperforms his peripherals. Martinez is among MLB’s ERA leaders (2.43), but his 4.75 SIERA is quite a bit higher, while his strikeout rate is hilariously low (13.8%). Martinez isn’t even keeping the ball on the ground. He’s throwing strikes and hoping they don’t get destroyed. That’s something that can work against most mortal offenses, but I’m happy to take my chances with the Dodgers (Ohtani, Freeman, Pages, Muncy, Tucker) against a guy like that.
I doubt Teng will be popular, but you can play the Tigers and hope he just can’t find the zone. Teng has also yielded quite a bit of thunder (.247 ISO) to lefties, and Detroit has some pretty good ones in Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith. Dillon Dingler is apparently a slugger now, so easy catcher play in your stax.
Everyone else is kind of a leverage stack. Ryne Nelson hasn’t pitched well enough this season to justify the ownership he could see on this slate. He’s allowed a .232 ISO and a 10.7% barrel rate overall with almost equally bad numbers against hitters from both sides. There isn’t much to like about the Angels these days, but Zach Neto, Mike Trout, and Jo Adell are good hitters, while Wade Meckler has performed well since arriving in the majors.
I mentioned Burns’ issues with lefties, plus the Mets get a big upgrade going into GABP. Juan Soto looks like a top-of-the-board kind of play on his own, while I’d otherwise look to Carson Benge, Jared Young, AJ Ewing, and MJ Melendez in stacks. If you’re playing a bunch of chalk – something like Imanaga/Gore + Cubs – rolling with a Mets mini-stack is an interesting way to get different.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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