NBA DFS Top Picks – Thursday April 9 Slate

We’ve got a 5-game Thursday slate to work through, and there’s a surprising amount to like here. The headliner is the Bulls/Wizards rematch — both teams are so shorthanded that the game carries the highest total on the slate by a wide margin. Embiid is out for Philly, which shakes up the entire 76ers/Rockets game. And for Boston, Jaylen Brown has been ruled out, which means Tatum gets a clean path to a massive usage share. Let’s get into it.

🏀 Slate Overview

Top injury news to monitor: Embiid (OUT), Jaylen Brown (OUT), Derrick White (Q), Neemias Queta (Q), Tari Eason (Q)
Best value plays: Rob Dillingham, Patrick Williams, Baylor Scheierman
Top game to attack: Bulls vs. Wizards — 127 total, both teams decimated by injuries/rest
Top stud: Jayson Tatum — massive usage bump with Brown ruled out
Blowout risks: Not really?

NBA DFS Top Picks for Wednesday

Jayson Tatum ($10,000 DK / $10,600 FD)
Julian Reese ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD)
Collin Sexton ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
Rob Dillingham ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD)

Update: The Wizards are rolling out the bare minimum — Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Tristan Vukcevic, and Anthony Davis are all out alongside a handful of others. Reese is a lock to start and should see heavy minutes in what is easily the most DFS-friendly environment on the slate. Keep an eye on the Pacers injury report — Walker, Brown, and Sheppard are all questionable, and their status could move the needle significantly on Indiana’s plays.

🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.

Jayson Tatum ($10,000 DK / $10,600 FD)

Brown being ruled out is exactly what Tatum needed. His usage is up 7% in games without Brown this season, and even at $10,000 on DK and $10,600 on FD, he projects at the top of the slate. The Knicks are a tough defensive team, but they’re also a team with something to play for — meaning this game should be relatively competitive and Tatum should see his full 35+ minutes. The price is high but justified. He’s the clearest top-of-slate play we have tonight.

Julian Reese ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD)

This feels criminal. Reese is going up against a Bulls team that has been one of the best matchups for opposing centers all season, and he’s getting this price in April because the Wizards have been so bad. He went for 36 minutes in the first matchup on Tuesday and has posted a 1.00 DK FP/minute mark this season. The Wizards have 8 players available. Reese is going to play 30-plus minutes in a game with a 127 total, at a salary that makes him very easy to fit. I can’t believe he’s this cheap.

Collin Sexton ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

Sexton is one of the two primary ball-handlers for the Bulls tonight along with Tre Jones, and both are sitting in a dream situation — the highest total on the slate, a shorthanded opponent, and roughly 30 minutes guaranteed. I think Sexton has the slightly higher ceiling of the two if you’re picking one. Jones is the safer play on the floor side, but Sexton is the one who can get to 40+ fantasy points if things go well. Both are worth rostering, but Sexton is the one I want in GPPs.

Rob Dillingham ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD)

Dillingham is the cheapest name on the list for a reason — he’s a backup — but the situation tonight changes his ceiling dramatically. He has a path to mid-20s minutes in this matchup, which is a much higher-usage role than he normally plays. He’s terrific value at $4,400/$4,200 and gives you a ton of flexibility to fit premium options elsewhere. If you’re building around Tatum and Sengun, Dillingham is one of the easiest ways to make salary work.

NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/9

The Bulls/Wizards game is the unquestioned centerpiece of this slate. If you run optimals, you’ll see both teams flooding the top of the projections. Reese, Sexton, Jones, Dillingham, Patrick Williams, and Leonard Miller all project well. You don’t have to go all-in on the game, but I’d be comfortable having 2-3 pieces from it in most lineups.

The Pacers/Nets game is a lower-confidence situation. Brooklyn has 9 players available, and Indiana is resting everyone it can. Ben Saraf ($4,900 DK) and Chaney Johnson ($4,700 FD) are worth 1-2 spots in larger-field GPPs as cheap dart throws, but don’t go overboard. Just about everyone on Brooklyn is viable. Worth noting they’re horrible.

🟢 SAFE — Reese, Dillingham

🟡 BOOM/BUST — Sexton, Tatum

There’s more risk with these guys just because they’re pricey. The Celtics aren’t really playing for anything. Tatum should have an elite role with JB out, but Boston could simply limit its starters if it wants. I don’t necessarily expect that, but there’s #fragility at this stage of the season with teams not playing for anything. Boston is basically locked into the No. 2 spot.
Sexton should have a very safe role, but likely won’t play more than 30 minutes. I think 30 minutes is more than enough against the fucking Wizards, but you never know.

Wednesday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots

🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

Scottie Barnes ($8,900 / $9,700 FD)
VJ Edgecombe ($7,300 DK / $6,800 FD)
Kobe Brown ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD)
Alperen Sengun ($8,600 DK / $9,400 FD)
Reed Sheppard ($6,100 DK / $6,400 FD)
Baylor Scheierman ($3,800 DK / $4,000 FD)

Bam Adebayo is the most recognizable name who’s projected well for the Heat. I get it – he’s a decent play – but Scottie Barnes, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Tyrese Maxey are pivots. Barnes has been Toronto’s best per-minute producer all season at 1.25 FP/minute, and the Heat have been one of the most favorable matchups for opposing players all year thanks to their historically fast pace. Barnes should come in at notably lower ownership than Bam, which is all you need in a large-field tournament.

Embiid’s absence is a big deal for Sengun. Ceiling games are still rare for him, but he’s been much more assertive offensively in recent weeks, and $8,600 on DK is a salary that looks at least $500 too cheap when you consider the matchup and the absence of the one guy who could truly bother him down low. The Sixers have been a more favorable matchup for forwards than for guards and centers, but that kinda goes out the window with Embiid missing.

Edgecombe is the under-the-radar play in the Sixers/Rockets game. Paul George and Maxey will dominate the narrative with Embiid out, but Edgecombe has seen a 3.1% usage bump when Embiid is off the floor and should fly under the radar from an ownership standpoint. His $6,800 salary on FanDuel pops, and he doesn’t need George or Maxey to have an off night for him to cash.

Kobe Brown has quietly been one of the more impressive players since being traded from the Clippers, and he’s worth targeting if he suits up tonight. His role has grown, the matchup against Brooklyn’s skeleton crew is as soft as it gets, and the price is right. Check his status before locking lineups.

Reed Sheppard becomes a much more interesting play if Tari Eason is ruled out with illness. Eason is listed as questionable, and without him, Sheppard has a cleaner path to 30+ minutes in what could be a competitive game. He’s a name most people will forget about, which is exactly the kind of tournament leverage you’re looking for.

Baylor Scheierman is projected to start in Jaylen Brown’s spot for the Celtics, and he’s an easy value play in the $4,000 range on both sites. He’ll look even better in lineups if Derrick White is ruled out as well. There’s enough upside in the role to make him a solid GPP add.

🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach a slate like tonight:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. The Wizards and Nets are the two most extreme examples tonight — check every injury report before building.
Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are. But a 247 total in the Bulls/Wizards game means something different than a 247 total between two full-strength teams.
Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: does he have a path to 28+ minutes tonight? Then that guy is probably viable.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. The floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect. The ceiling is the upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names and popular options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership. That’s what the pivot section above is all about.
Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.