NBA DFS Picks Today: Top Plays & Slate Strategy (3/24)

Today is Tuesday. Monday’s slate was a disaster for Ya Boy, but we move forward in life, not backward. Tuesday brings just 4 games, 3 of which have spreads above or near double digits. Fun!

The Kings are sitting a few guys, which leaves them with 8 available bodies for tonight’s game in Charlotte. You’re probably going to have multiple Kings in every lineup, for better or worse. Just kinda the nature of the slate, might as well embrace it.

🏀 Slate Overview

Top injury news to monitor: Grayson Allen is the only notable Q tag.

Best value plays: Kings. Coby White. Oso Ighodaro. Tristan da Silva. Things of that nature.

Top game to attack: SAC/CHA: Massive blowout risk in a game with a 17.5-point spread, but easy to see how it’s the most relevant game on the slate.

Top stud: Jokic.

Blowout risks: SAC/CHA (CHA -17.5), ORL/CLE (CLE -10.5)

NBA DFS Top Picks for Tuesday

Devin Carter ($4,100)
Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
Patrick Baldwin Jr. ($3,500)

🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.

I’m rolling with just 3 for now, but may tag someone else later. Devin Carter ($4,100) is the most obvious play on the slate. The Kings are down to 8, and he played almost the entire 2nd half of the last game after Killian Hayes was banished from the castle at halftime. I expect Carter to start over Hayes tonight, but you never know with this fucking team. Frankly, I don’t really care whether Carter starts, I’ll play him anyway.

Several other Kings will garner some attention, and rightfully so. If Doug McDermott starts, I hope the field plays him with confidence. This is a very low-usage player who contributes next to nothing in terms of peripherals. I’ll gladly take the salary and ownership discount that comes with Patrick Baldwin Jr. instead. Baldwin is averaging 1.01 FP/minute with the Kings, and 20+ minutes is basically a necessity here. I think he’s an awesome play, especially if he’s going to be lower-owned than McDermott with the same SF/PF positionality.

And then, you just pay up for Jokic against the Suns. Jokic has had some mid games lately by his standards, which makes me think he’s still dealing with some knee discomfort. I don’t care much. It’s a 4-game slate and he’s on it, so I’m paying for him.

🟢 SAFE – Carter and Jokic.

🟡 BOOM/BUST – Baldwin is the riskiest of these options, but I think he’s such a good GPP play if he’s coming off the bench. If he starts and everyone jumps on the bandwagon it’s a little less exciting, but I’d still play him.

Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/24

🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.

ORL/CLE (230.5 total)

With all of the value in SAC/CHA, I like the idea of paying up for players in this game. Orlando is shorthanded and on a back-to-back, so the risk is baked into the 10.5-point spread. It’s still a very solid spot for Desmond Bane with Suggs, Black, and Franz still missing from Orlando’s lineup. Banchero is a tougher sell just because he’s more expensive, and it looks like he’ll garner some ownership.

Paying up for one of the Cavs’ stars – Mitchell, Harden, and Mobley – looks pretty fun, as well. Orlando hasn’t been as brutal a matchup this season because they’re playing at a quicker pace, which suits Mitchell particularly well. He’s my favorite GPP spend on the slate.

Sneaky NBA DFS GPP Pivots

🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

Donovan Mitchell ($9,300)
Trey Murphy ($7,700)
Rasheer Fleming ($3,200)
Brandon Miller ($7,600)

It looks like LaMelo will be the popular way to get Hornets exposure, so I don’t mind pivoting to the cheaper Brandon Miller. His usage is just as high as LaMelo’s, he plays a thinner position, and it looks like he’ll be lower-owned. Only concern is whether these main Charlotte guys see enough minutes to really hit a ceiling for you.

The Knicks’ defense is terrific across the board, but they are a 3-point funnel. That’s really their one weakness, and Murphy is the guy to exploit it for New Orleans. Pretty similar play to Miller, though I trust Murphy’s minutes more. The Pels have also been playing good basketball lately, so I’m not too concerned about them getting their asses kicked in this game.

Another cheapie in the same vein as Patrick Baldwin Jr. is Rasheer Fleming, who’s been playing some backup C minutes lately with Mark Williams out. It looks like Oso Ighodaro will be somewhat popular as a cheapie starting at the 5 for the Suns. There are lots of ways for this to go wrong, especially in a matchup against Jokic. Fleming is a talented rookie who’s only $3,200 with a path to elevated playing time if things go south for Ighodaro. If that’s too hot-takey, I don’t mind finding the extra $500 to play Moussa Diabate instead of Oso, either.

🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays that are garnering lower ownership.
Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.