Best UFC 327 DraftKings DFS Picks: Top MMA Lineup Targets & Strategy

Our MMA DFS picks have been ablaze lately. I’m not talking one good week or even two. I’m talking 12-0 over our last 12 Core Plays. That’s four straight weeks of not missing a top play, which means all you needed was three more winners to piece together winning lineups on those slates.

We’re due for a stinker, so even though I love what I am cooking up for UFC 327, I’m giving this week’s MMA DFS Core Plays out for FREE. If you like what you see – or my plays help you cash – return the favor by signing up at our picks page. You get access to every post we write for one low monthly fee.

Now, to the sate at hand. It is a banger, as we get a light heavyweight title bout in the main card, and there are several very interesting fights under it. They are a litany of fights that are admittedly tough to call, but you really just need to get six of them right.

Truth be told, even getting six MMA fight picks correct isn’t easy. Doing that and also making sure they’re all winners above 100+ fantasy points is even harder. But my goal is to get you halfway there, while also offering some GPP plays to target. Let’s build!

🥊New to MMA DFS? Slate Overview

Best value play: Josh Hokit. He’s brass, but so far he’s walked the walk and he’s not chalky, either.

Best GPP pivot: Esteban Ribovics. Early KO upside and not very owned. High risk vs high reward.

Top stud: Mateusz Gamrot. The potential takedown volume could have him break the slate.

Safest fighter: Aaron Pico. He’s the biggest favorite (-278) and the most expensive fighter.

Biggest Upset risk: Jiri, just because Ulberg is super powerful and the odds are almost even.

MMA DFS Core Plays for UFC 327

Mateusz Gamrot ($8.6k)
Dominick Reyes ($8.3k)
Josh Hokit ($7.8k)

🥊New to MMA DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, are usually favored to win, and score takedowns/rack up strikes/and or have a clear path to an early finish. The goal with an MMA Core isn’t to save you cash. It’s to get you three high upside wins that leave enough room to build out the rest of your lineup.

This is a huge card with a lot of good fights, but the pricing is honestly pretty tight across the board. And it should be, as most of these fights are either even or just really tough to call due to contrasting styles.

Exhibit A is this showdown between Gamrot and Ribovics, which is a classic wrestler versus striker showdown. Ribovics did a great job defending takedowns recently, but historically that’s not a strength and all Gamrot is going to do is keep applying pressure and keep shooting for takedowns.

Either that’s going to fail and Ribovics is going to tune him up, or Gamrot’s superior wrestling will fully dominate this matchup. Based on the potential takedown volume we’re getting here – plus the fact that Gamrot is tough as hell and impossible to finish – I find it very difficult to get away from him.

Next up is Dominick Reyes, who got KO’d in his last fight by Carlos Ulberg. There’s no shame in that, however, and we know Reyes tends to be an all-or-nothing guy. Seriously, just look at any of his recent fights. He doesn’t allow them to go into the third round, win or lose.

Reyes could be nearing the end now at age 36, but he looked plenty fine last April when he finished Nikita Krylov. He also finished Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby before that. Johnny Walker is a violent finisher who could send Reyes into an early retirement, but I don’t fully buy it.

As dangerous as Walker can be, he’s also super volatile and can get rocked pretty easily. He’s been knocked out six times in his career and was trending in a bad direction before TKO-ing Minggang Zhang in August. The reality is this fight is about timing, because both of these dudes have power and chins made of charmin. I trust Reyes more, so while this feels more GPP-level, I think we’re simply getting the better fighter at a mild discount.

Reyes and Gamrot look to be “good” chalk to me, but we can shave off some ownership with Hokit. He is an interesting fella, but he certainly has backed up the talk en route to an 8-0 start and an explosive 2-0 run so far under the UFC banner.

Hokit has legit power, is the better pure striker in this matchup, and he also has a very strong wrestling background. Curtis Blaydes is no scrub, but he’s 35 now and we’ve seen his chin get softer in recent years.

The crazy thing here is that Hokit might be able to match his wrestling. We don’t know that for sure yet, but his movement and athleticism (he’s a former NFL player) could give him an edge. He has scored a finish in every single fight and he’s never lost. Yet, he’s sub-$8k and coming in at 26% ownership.

I get it, the respect for Blaydes is real, but if Hokit is going to prove himself to be legit, this is the exact type of fight he has to win. Blaydes is a guy I’ll want shares of on this slate, but Hokit provides leverage and it’s quite arguable he should actually be favored in this one.

🟢 SAFE None.

🟡 BOOM/BUST I like them all to win but can see any of them losing.

Sneaky MMA DFS GPP Pivots for UFC 327

🥊New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his/her upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

Esteban Ribovics ($7.6k)
Charles Radtke ($8.8k)
Johnny Walker ($7.9k)

I like Gamrot and Reyes a lot, but I think this is a wide open UFC slate where we shouldn’t go in with just one lineup. I’ll be rotating a few guys quite a bit, and the one I’d rotate the most is probably Reyes.

The reality is Reyes is older than Walker and he’s just as vulnerable to big shots. I think his technical striking is superior and he should win, but can an unowned Walker catch him and end this thing in the blink of an eye? Absolutely.

I’m less enthused about rostering Ribovics just because his most likely path to victory is surprising Gamrot early and battering him to death. Nobody has ever punched Gamrot out, but hey, he’s been knocked down more than a few times, so maybe his time is coming. The price is nice to take a crack at that a few times in tourneys. Just make sure you’re not pairing them together.

I’ll also mention Radtke just because he’s priced up to the point where I don’t think anyone will want to pay for him. That isn’t reason enough to use him, so let’s also note that he is a -180 favorite to win. He isn’t big on letting fights go the distance, either. Each of his last five fights have ended before the final bell rang.

UFC 327 DFS Strategy

First, I am not rolling one lineup out for UFC 327. Too much can go wrong to ruin your night. This is such an even fight card where so many bouts could go either way, so mixing and matching and going against the core a bit does make good sense.

It’s as simple as this; I see a path to certain guys winning and think they will win, but there are also obvious flaws that could give way to an upset. That, or they are just in dangerous spots.

Like Jiri Prochazka. He could easily be argued as a core play and I will absolutely be all over him. But both he and Carlos Ulberg are going to get ownership and Ulberg’s power could easily mess everything up.

With that in mind, I’m not falling into the trap of pairing any fighters on this slate. I like Jiri over Ulberg due to him being a bit more versatile and more experienced, but I don’t see a path for them to both succeed together. I think someone is getting knocked out in that fight and I want to get shares on both sides.

I’m also not eager to play into ownership for guys like Aaron Pico or Kelvin Gastelum. Part of my MMA DFS strategy for this slate is to actually fade two of the biggest betting favorites on the entire card.

For Gastelum it’s because the lack of upside. He’s a big favorite to win, but he just doesn’t finish anyone anymore and Vicente Luque is scrappy enough to make this fight kind of boring. I think it goes the distance, so paying $9k just to watch Gastelum grind to a win feels like a bad idea.

With Pico, I’m hesitant to fully buy into him, especially if he’s owned. Do I want to go as far as trusting aging fighters like Luque or Patricio Pitbull? No, I don’t. But I think going away from two (very) chalky favorites will instantly make my lineups inherently different.

Could they score KOs and make me look stupid? Yeah, sure, but this is MMA DFS baby. We need to take calculated risks that give us an edge because the whole thing is a risk itself.

Guys I want a lot of exposure to:

Reyes
Jiri
Ulberg
Azamat
Hokit

That’s my MMA DFS core, with two extra guys that I like a lot. Then we can dip into the GPP pivots a good amount as well. If you need more help with your basic strategy, check out our MMA DFS guide.

🥊Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to MMA DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Narratives can be a thing. Guys fighting for a title shot. Fighters battling in front of their home crowd. UFC debuts. The list goes on. Know what goes into each bout and what is on the line for every fighter before you click their name.
Know fighter styles. MMA DFS is very nuanced. What style fighters use, how often they get finishes, how their defense is – all of this plays into their salary, projection, value, and odds of winning. Make sure you know the fighting styles and path to production for both fighters before making your pick.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
5 round fight. The main event offers a little more upside, depending on the fighter. In theory, the more rounds you fight, the more points you can accrue. But don’t forget about fighter styles and how they generate points. For instance, if your fighter doesn’t get takedowns, he better get a lot of strikes or land a finish at some point.
Upset special. Upsets happen in MMA (a lot). Not every upset is worth targeting, though. Try to put a good amount of logic/reasoning behind big swings. Ie, what is the path for this underdog to win, and how likely is it? Just as importantly, if they don’t win, how likely are they to get upset, or can they accrue points in a Decision loss?
Who to target: Lastly, make sure you prioritize fighters who can get takedowns, rack up strikes, secure control time, end fights quickly, and grind out wins. All of those things matter and if you can combine some of them, even better. If your pick can only get you one of those things, you might want to keep looking. If they can’t get you any of those things, your decision is made a lot easier.