Monday’s slate was a weird one, so we might as well forget it. I know I have. It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and this slate looks pretty fun. Lots of pay-up-to-be-contrarian options available, and we should have plenty of value to jam ’em in.
🏀 New to DFS? Slate Overview
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. Cade and Duren look like strong plays in the matchup, it’s just very hard to imagine the Wizards keeping it close enough for them to play enough. I’m otherwise not playing for blowouts on this slate.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? It’s important to balance role, matchup, projection, and blowout risk. But if we can get value via cheap players with somewhat locked in roles, we need to embrace it.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- High game totals tell you where the points are. The total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available. Miami-Charlotte looks outstanding.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. I’m not worried about matchups with any of the studs on this slate. Giannis doesn’t have a great on-paper draw, but Allen’s absence does weaken Cleveland’s interior resistance.
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