Hello! It is officially NBA SZN once again, and we’ll tip things off with a salty little 2-gamer on Tuesday night. The reigning champion Thunder will host the upstart Rockets in the opener at 7:30 PM ET, while the Warriors will visit the Lakers in the nightcap. I am still on vacation, but I’m throwing this together quickly with Kevin under the weather.
Ownership will obviously be quite concentrated on such a small slate, but there’s always an edge to be found if you know where to find it. Here, I’ll highlight some of the plays I consider to be anchors of my lineups tonight.
On we go!
Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD)
While Rockets-Thunder may well be a matchup of the league’s 2 stingiest defenses, this game surprisingly has the slightly higher total. We know Houston is starting the double-big lineup with Alperen Sengun next to Steven Adams in an attempt to combat Oklahoma City’s double-big Chet Holmgren/Isaiah Hartenstein look. Houston found success with that look in last year’s playoffs, and it’s something they plan to lean on. heavily again this season.
Hartenstein was fairly hit-or-miss in the playoffs from a minutes standpoint, but I do think he’ll have a fairly safe role in this spot. He averaged a stellar 1.22 DK FP/minute during the regular season, and something in the neighborhood of 30 minutes tonight sounds about right. The pricing is a bit tight on DraftKings tonight, and Hartenstein’s $5,400 salary stands out as one of the better point-per-dollar values on the board with legitimate ceiling.
There’s always opportunity cost at center, particularly on FanDuel where you can roster just one of them. Fortunately, center is fairly weak on this slate. You’re bypassing guys like Sengun and Deandre Ayton to take the savings with Hartenstein on FD at $5,800. I just think it’s the right play on both sites, and he may well be my highest-owned player.
Austin Reaves ($7,300 DK, $7,900 FD)
This is the NBA, so, obviously, we’re already dealing with injury news. The Lakers won’t have LeBron James tonight due to a bout with sciatica, so plenty of usage and ball-handling opportunities will open up for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Luka is right there with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the top overall play on the slate, but I quite like the value we’re getting with Reaves at his sub-$8,000 salaries on both DK and FD.
In a 500-minute sample last season with James and Anthony Davis off the floor, Reaves contributed an outstanding 1.42 FP/minute, including usage and assist rates both north of 30%. Of course, not all of those minutes came alongside Doncic. In 234 minutes sans LeBron/AD and WITH Luka, Reaves still contributed a solid 1.19 FP/minute on 21.6% usage. We’ll get a little bit of both tonight, as Reaves will presumably shoulder a substantial offensive load whenever Doncic is off the floor.
35 minutes for Reaves tonight against Golden State is likely the minimum, assuming a close game. Reaves’ SG-only eligibility on DK is silly, but he’s still finding his way into most of my lineups. I’d likely consider a max-1 rule of Doncic/Reaves on a bigger slate, but I’m willing to play them together on a tiny 2-gamer.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300 DK, $11,100 FD)
I do not think there is a wrong answer between SGA and Luka Doncic on this slate. Luka gets a bigger role without LeBron, while Gilgeous-Alexander is in a similar spot without Jalen Williams. All Shai did in 1,108 minutes without J-Dub on the floor last season was average an absurd 1.77 DK FP/minute.
The Rockets have plenty of capable defenders to try and throw at SGA, but he’s possibly the best guard in the league in terms of getting to his spots and generating the looks he wants. Most importantly, we’re getting a sizable discount of $700 on DK and $600 on FD from Doncic, and they project similarly around the industry. I think Luka’s likely to see more minutes, but I’ll bank on Gilgeous-Alexander’s efficiency in a decent overall spot.
Things can change if we get some wildly unexpected injury news, but I think starting builds with SGA, Reaves, and Hartenstein is the way to go on this slate.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply