On the heels of some wack-ass NBA Cup slates, we’re back with a regular old 4-gamer on Thursday night. No big stakes for these games, just your run-of-the-mill December regular-season games. 3 of the games feature point spreads at or near double digits, so that’s something to consider. The lone exception is the clash between the Blazers and Pelicans in New Orleans in which Portland is a 4.5-point favorite.
On to the #plaze.
DraftKings Core Plays
- Deni Avdija
- Nique Clifford
- Kevin Porter Jr.
I swapped Monk out for Clifford once we got news of Clifford starting. He’s $3,500 with a pretty clear path to minutes, and I think he could get blowout if things go south early for the Kings here. Monk presents a lot of risk given his volatile role. Wouldn’t play Monk + Clifford in the same lineup, either.
FanDuel Core Plays
- Russell Westbrook
- Deni Avdija
- DeMar DeRozan
Clippers-Rockets
The Clippers still haven’t gotten their shit together even after ejecting Chris Paul into the sun. They’re 9.5-point underdogs in Houston tonight with the lowest total on the slate (106.5) against the Rockets’ tough defense. No new injuries here, just Beal and DJJ still out. I’m assuming Harden gets the Amen treatment, while Houston will roll the dice with guys like KD and Jabari on Kawhi. I like the price point and ownership on Leonard. Harden (revenge!) always projects pretty well, and $9,000 is on the cheap side. Even Zubac looks decent here at $7,200, so I’m interested in all 3 despite the tough matchup. Given the low total I’m leaning toward a max-1 of those 3, though a max-1 between Kawhi/Harden while letting Zu float works. You can consider Collins at $4,900, just don’t love it.
No new injuries for Houston either, and Sengun is back after missing 2 games. LAC gets destroyed in transition, which bodes the best for Thompson, though he’s fairly full for a full-strength situation at $8,200. Sengun ($9,600) looks like a good spend, though it’s a Jokic slate with plenty of other good Cs. KD is overpriced for Sengun’s return, but nobody will play him, either.
Celtics-Bucks
Boston still doesn’t have Tatum obviously, yet they’re favored by 9.5 on the road against the Giannis-free Bux. Jay Brown is pushing $10,000, and…he’s worth it? His usage is sky-high (36%) with a 1.33 FP/minute average, and Milwaukee is more attackable defensively without Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee gets killed on the board without Giannis, so it’s a pretty good Queta spot, even if he’s generally an uninspiring click. Less enthused about priced-up White/Pritchard. Probably max-2 Brown/Pritchard/White, but Brown is the clear headliner at what looks like super low ownership.
Milwaukee is the KPJ/Rollins show without Giannis. Porter probably isn’t expensive enough yet, so we’re again looking at some chalk here, even if he’s not 50%+ owned like he’s been in recent games. The role is too good. Rollins is $100 more expensive and projects for less ownership. With such a small salary gap, playing the lower-owned guy is never a bad move in a GPP. Portis is $5,200, so he can probably pay that off in limited minutes. No point in playing Turner.
Blazers-Pels
Portland gets the best matchup of the slate, plus they’re shorthanded with Jrue and Clingan still out in addition to Dame, Scoot, and some other spares. Time Lord and Yang are questionable, too. You don’t need a ton of size to deal with the Pels, but I still assume they’ll start Williams if he can play. If he and Yang are out, maybe they to go Duop Reath, but they could also roll with Kris Murray in a small lineup. Reath doesn’t have huge minutes upside either way, but at least he’s cheap. We saw Williams play 30 in a start a week ago, so at $4,900 he’s kind of a smash if he’s in through an illness tag.
Usage flows through Avdija, Grant, and Sharpe, while Toumani generally sees healthy minutes. Avdija is always the headliner, and he’ll face no rim resistance here. Because they’re all pretty intriguing plays, I might max-2 these 4.
Pelicans could get Poole (Q) back while Zion and Dejounte are still out. Poole’s been out forever with a quad, so he’s not really playable on a likely limit if he’s in. Thank god for that. Anyway, the usage should still flow through Murphy primarily, while Queen is still a nice $6,900 with PF/C elig after his first career trip-dub the other night. He’s projected to be much more popular tonight, but it’s a good spot against fast-paced/terrible Portland. Murphy’s a pretty good low-owned play even at $8,100. Bey and Herb look a bit better if Poole is out, not into Fears in any scenario.
Nuggets-Kings
The Kings gave it up to Zach Edey of all people like a week ago, and now they have to deal with Jokic. We haven’t seen a consistent ceiling in a while, and he’s still pushing $13,000. Obviously an amazing spot if you can afford him, but there are some other pretty good Cs out there. Murray ($8,900) is pushing it, but the ceiling has been there in games Jokic hasn’t gotten there. Clear max-1 situation even on a small slate. Johnson/Watson are fine fillers.
LaVine is out tonight in addition to Schroder and Sabonis. Russ smashed in the last game against Indiana even with LaVine there, and even more usage will congregate around Westbrook, DeRozan, and Monk, primarily. I am fairly alarmed, but the Denver defense really sucks without Gordon and Braun. Russ is the headliner, DeRozan and Monk have attractive price tags. Less into paying nearly $7,000 for Keegan, but the field should agree. Raynaud gets a tougher draw against Jokic and he’s now up to $5,400. Not my thing today. Precious is an okay value at $4,200 if he starts for LaVine. If it’s Clifford, not really into it.
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