Hello! It is my birthday. Hooray! I can’t believe I’m finally 60. Feels weird, man. Feels like only yesterday I was enjoying the disco lifestyle or cocaine or whatever 60-year-olds used to do.
Anyway, we’ve got another relatively small docket of NBA action on tap, with a mere 5 games on the board tonight. We also have the benefit of zero (0) teams playing the second half of a back-to-back, which is always nice.
Below, I’ll do a brief game-by-game breakdown and offer my building blocks for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
DK Core Plays
- Bones Hyland
- Naz Reid
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
FD Core Plays
- Bones Hyland
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jamal Murray
Suns-Heat
Tight 1.5-point spread in this one in favor of Miami. Phoenix is pretty healthy, but it’s a good spot against the NBA’s fastest team. Booker looks like more of a secondary play than a priority one, just hasn’t shown much ceiling this season. Brooks (28%) still has heavy usage and $6,100 on DK is an underpay. Core candidate, though he’s generally a guy you can fade if he’s going to be heavy chalk. Like the $5,500 DK price point on Mark Williams. Goodwin, O’Neale, Gillespie are worth keeping in a player pool.
Powell has a Q tag for the otherwise heathy Heat. Norm himself looks pretty good with G/F elig at $6,700 if he plays through the sore back. If he’s out, boosts in usage for Adebayo/Herro with Wiggins, Jaquez, and Larsson looking a little more playable. Bam’s $7,000 DK price point is the lowest I can recall seeing, probably because he’s been shit. If Powell plays, I’m not prioritizing anyone here.
Bulls-Rockets
Giddey, White, and Collins still out for Chicago. They’re 13.5-point ‘dogs here in a tough spot, though the Rockets have sucked lately. Tre Jones at only $5,700 still looks pretty solid without the other guards in the lineup (1.03 FP/minute). Ayo and Huerter are the Spider-Man meme, slight edge to Huerter with the $400 discount but they’re secondary plays, at best. Not too into $7,800 Vucevic against a tough interior defense and elite rebounding HOU team.
Rockets have been Down Bad but good bounce-back spot here with a 119 total. Tari and FVV still out, while DFS will miss this one, too. We saw Holiday start the last game and play like shit, though he got 28 minutes. Reed saw just 14 off the bench, seems like he’s falling out of favor. $3,600 for Aaron makes him a very tough value to avoid in such a great matchup, though there’s path to failure because…he’s Aaron Holiday. Don’t mind taking shots on Reed if the field is going to be fully off of him, though obviously wouldn’t play him in lineups with Holiday.
Chicago’s paint defense continues to blow. That’ll bode well for both Sengun and Amen, while KD is under $8,000 with F/G. As of now I think Sengun is the best choice, probably max-1 of those 3 for me. Jabari is fine as a lower-owned midrange play.
Wolves-Bucks
Big news here with both Ant and Gobert out for Minnesota. They’re still only 3.5-point underdogs without them, as the Bucks are Big Butthole this year. Bones (1.13 FP/minute) picked up some starts without Edwards earlier this year, topping 30 minutes in a couple of those games. He is the most obvious play of the slate at $3,100 on DK and $4,000 on FD. If he’s starting I don’t see any reason to fade him, feels much safer than Aaron. If he’s off the bench, he’ll probably be over-owned. Conley and Dillingham are still here, though I’d only consider either of them if starting over Bones.
Randle (+3.3%) and McDaniels (+3%) get the usage boosts without Ant. Both are too cheap for the roles. Great plays. DiVincenzo is a bit pricier than I’d like, but still an excellent play in his own right. The headliner here is Naz, who presumably starts as a smallball 5 in place of Rudy. Just play him at $6,100 on DK, even into heavy ownership, who cares. $7,500 on FD is a tougher sell. This is the top team to target tonight without question.
Myles is Q for the Bucks. The Gobert absence is huge for Giannis, who shouldn’t face much resistance at the rim. He’s another smash play and a very obvious building block with a ton of value making it easy to afford him. Lineups with multiple Wolves + Giannis will be popular constructions, but hard to say it’s not the right one. KPJ is still playing upwards of 40 minutes every night, keeping him in play even at $8,000. Rollins kinda takes a backseat to these guys offensively, though still playable as a KPJ pivot thanks to the minutes. Turner is whatever if he plays. If he’s out, Portis probably starts and becomes a nice value in his own right.
Nuggets-Pels
Denver is actually a 2.5-point favorite as they continue to play without Jokic, Braun, Cam, and JoVal, while Jamal is Q again. If he plays, Murray is another building block with all the usage to himself. I don’t expect him to be limited given the state of the rest of this roster. If he’s out, Jalen Pickett is yet another cheap PG who should play heavy minutes, though he’s considerably more expensive than your Bones/Aaron tier. Watson and Gordon will get huge usage bumps if Murray is out. If Murray in, tough to pay for Watson. I still think $6,500 for Gordon is fair either way with the minutes creeping back toward normal. THJ and Bruce are secondary cheapies who get bumps if Murray is out, too.
Pelicans are still without Herb, Dejounte, and Jose, while Bey is Q. Denver having no C of which to speak makes it a pretty good D-Queen spot. Minutes have been erratic, but we know he can pile ’em up regardless. Another guy I’m looking to be over the field on. Minutes for Fears should be very secure with Alvarado out, and he’s another high-usage option at only $5,400. Solid play. Yves is cheap enough ($3,300) to be playable in your non-Queen lineups as a punt, though it’s pretty thin. Not really prioritizing Zion or Murphy as of now, though both should get a little more appealing if Bey is out.
Spurs-Thunder
Spurs and Thunder will play their weekly game against each other. San Antonio is a 7.5-point underdog despite owning OKC all year, so make of that what you will. Vassell is out, that’s it. Tough spot on paper, and tough to love anything here at the salaries as a result. Wemby is still stuck in the mid-20s most nights. $9,500 looks pretty good, just tough to love it. Fox and Castle are secondary midrange spends for large-field. Barnes/Champagnie…meh.
OKC is pretty healthy with only Hartenstein missing among main pieces. I’m prioritizing other spends over Shai, though I’ll surely get more of him if Murray is axed from the pool. Not much reason to force a sucky J-Dub, though Chet ($7,600) looks a little better with PF eligibility. Not a terrible play. I like the $3,500 salary and SG/SF for Caruso. Decent cheap option who I think could see a few extra minutes in a big-game matchup.
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