Thursday slates are typically small and terrible, but we’ve actually got a decent-looking 6-gamer tonight. There is some risk it becomes a 5-gamer if the DBax-Cardinals game gets axed for weather, but we’ll see. Sounds pretty grim as of now, but maybe we’ll get lucky.
As always, I’ll break down my strategy below:
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Thursday
- Cristopher Sanchez ($11,500, at WSH)
- Cam Schlittler ($10,500, at BOS)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,500, vs. TEX)
- Tatsuya Imai ($6,300, at DET)
- Connelly Early ($8,000, vs. NYY)
- Freddy Peralta ($7,500, vs. CHC)
- Matthew Boyd ($7,200, at NYM)
- Cade Cavalli ($6,100, vs. PHI)
We’ve got some aces on the board tonight. Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball this season, with a 1.80 ERA to go along with his career-best 28.5% K-rate and tiny 4.7% walk rate. He keeps the ball on the ground (57.3%) with the best of ’em. Even if his ERA will probably regress, his 2.71 SIERA is also one of the best in the league. There are zero holes in his game at this point.
Sanchez does get a pretty tough draw here against a surprisingly good Washington offense, though they’ve hit for less power (.154 ISO) against LHP. He’ll have the platoon advantage against some of the Nationals’ better hitters, though it’s still not a great spot for Ks (21.4%). Sanchez is also $11,500, so we’re paying out the wazoo for him. I don’t care much about the matchup, he’s just an awesome pitcher and worthy of the salary. He’ll be my highest-exposed pitcher, even in a less-than-perfect matchup.
Cam Schlittler, like Sanchez, is a Cy Young frontrunner in his league. His 29.5% strikeout rate is slightly north of Sanchez’, while his 4.9% walk rate is much-improved over last year’s 10.2% mark. A sub-2.00 ERA is likely unsustainable, but his SIERA is also below 3.00. Schlittler doesn’t have Sanchez’ groundball ability, but he’s also just not allowing many hard hits or much damage. While Fenway is a park downgrade for Schlitty, the Red Sox have also been a pretty punchless offense all season (.146 ISO, .304 wOBA, 21.8% Ks vs. RHP).
Schlittler’s matchup is better than Sanchez’, and he’s a full $1,000 cheaper. Pairing the two isn’t easy at these salaries, but they’re both excellent plays. I do slightly prefer Sanchez if I’m just picking one, but I don’t think it’s a huge gap.
After that, nobody else is more expensive than the $8,500 Kevin Gausman, who draws the Rangers at home. Gausman’s SIERA is about a half-run better than his ERA, so he’s been a bit unlucky. His strikeout rate is hovering in the 24% range for the second consecutive year along with good control. He’s more of a flyball pitcher. Gausman is probably past his prime, but he’s still above average overall, and the Rangers’ offense hasn’t been all that impressive this season. They do gain some thunder with Corey Seager back tonight, but it’s not a team I’m generally afraid to attack. He’ll probably come in at No. 3 on my list in terms of exposure.
No. 4 will probably be the erratic Tatsuya Imai, who heads to Detroit to face the Tigers. Imai has taken some time to acclimate to the big leagues, and there’s no telling which version will show up on a night-to-night basis. Imai’s ERA is still over 6.00, though his SIERA is a much more average 4.25. The 26.5% K-rate will play, but his 13.3% walk rate is usually his undoing. His 13% swinging strike rate indicates the strikeout stuff is legit, and this is a Tigers lineup that will do plenty of striking out (23.9% vs. RHP). They’re also not all that patient, which helps Imai.
Most of Imai’s issues have come against lefties, and Detroit can throw 6 of them his way here. Not perfect, but this is a salary play. Imai is just $6,300, and he’s already posted a pair of double-digit strikeout games this season. I’m not banking on that, but we also don’t need that for him to be a worthwhile play at this price point.
Connelly Early ($8,000) will climb the mound opposite Schlittler at home against the Yankees. Early has impressive numbers against his fellow lefties this season, while he’s more vulnerable to RHBs. New York (.209 ISO) is doing plenty of slugging against southpaws, but this is typically an offense we prefer to target with left-handed pitching, especially with Aaron Judge sidelined. The Yanks are also a decent matchup for Ks (22.2%). I like the price tag enough to call him one of my primary options.
I’m not getting to a ton of anyone else, but I will have all of Freddy Peralta, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Cavalli in the player pool, primarily for larger-field contests.
Peralta has seen his Stuff+ numbers decline pretty sharply this season, while his SwStr% is also down. We’ve seen a predictable dip in his K-rate (22.1%) as a result, while he still has the same sketchy control (9% walks) he’s always had. The Cubs are also a pretty talented offense, though at least he’ll face them in the more pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The main attraction here is Peralta’s $7,500 salary, as this guy is almost always at least $9,000. He’s not a $9,000 pitcher anymore, so this is about right. I think he’s an okay play, but I likely won’t invest here too much.
Boyd comes off the IL to make his first MLB start since early May on the other side of this one. The strikeouts (31%) were up in a big way early in the season, albeit in a tiny sample. I do like the matchup against a Juan Soto-free version of the Mets, but Boyd will probably top out around 75 pitches in this one. That’s fine at $7,200 on a smallish slate, but nothing I’m prioritizing.
Cavalli is slightly cheaper than Imai, though he has to face the Phillies. Cavalli is a decent real-life pitcher with pretty average numbers in most regards. I’m not dying to pick on a deep and powerful Phillies team, but the $6,100 salary keeps him in the pool, especially as a lower-owned pivot off of Imai.
SP Rankings
- Sanchez
- Schlittler
- Gausman
- Imai
- Early
- Peralta
- Cavalli
- Boyd
MLB DFS Stacks for Thursday
- Cubs (at Peralta)
- Astros (at Troy Melton)
- Phillies (vs. Cavalli)
- DBax (at Michael McGreevy)
- Yankees (at Early)
- Rangers (at Gausman)
- Blue Jays (vs. MacKenzie Gore)
- Tigers (vs. Imai)
Peralta seems to be in decline, so I’m happy to continue targeting him, especially if his cheap price point generates some ownership. Left-handed hitters have rocked his world (.220 ISO, .347 wOBA), so Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ find themselves in nice spots. Peralta has admittedly fared much better against same-handed bats, but I’ll be getting to Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, and Alex Bregman in full stacks.
Troy Melton is a low-strikeout righty. He’s getting groundballs (60%) from RHBs, but he doesn’t have any discernible skills against LHBs. Great spot for Yordan Alvarez, of course, while I’d otherwise prioritize the Astros’ righties who hit the ball in the air – Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes. Taylor Trammell and Yainer Diaz next up.
Cavalli really hasn’t pitched poorly. He’s another guy getting groundballs, but the Phillies just have a lot of talent, and they’re pretty cheap aside from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. They’re the headliners, followed by Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, and JT Realmuto. Trea Turner is fine. Just fine.
The Yankees have so much power that you can always play them. We prefer targeting Early with RHBs, while we prefer RHBs at Fenway, to begin with. Paul Goldschmidt, step right up. I’m still happy to get to Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Cody Bellinger even as lefties here, while the other top RHBs are Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, and Amed Rosario.
If they play baseball in St. Louis tonight, the DBax’ LHBs are on my radar against Michael McGreevy, who’s only striking out 13% of lefties so far. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Pavin Smith look good here from the left side.
The Tigers are good stack if the shitty version of Imai shows up. Lefties have done the most damage, so Kevin McGonigle, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, and Riley Greene all look pretty appealing.
MacKenzire Gore has a bit of a reverse left-handed split, but Toronto’s RHBs are generally the strongest hitters – George Springer, Kazuma Okamoto, and whatever’s left of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I won’t have a ton of Texas against Gausman, but I don’t mind a mini-stack of some combination of Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Joc Pederson, and Brandon Nimmo.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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