We get two more broken up 3-game slates for some reason. Nice work, DraftKings! Yesterday’s NBA DFS Core was mostly fine, as Tristan da Silva and Jokic both smashed. DJJ? Not so much.
It’s onward and upward we go, as this slate is small and full of terrors. But hey, it certainly isn’t light on value, and with no must-have studs up top, we can kind of do whatever we want in the “paying for guys” department. That makes for a difficult slate, but also a fun one. I’ll sort through it all, pointing out the Core Plays, some GPP pivots, and more. Let’s build!
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. I won’t completely refrain from using Knicks studs or utilizing a shorthanded Warriors team, but I won’t go crazy stacking this game, either.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? It’s important to balance role, matchup, projection, and blowout risk. But if we can get value via cheap players with somewhat locked in roles, we need to embrace it.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- High game totals tell you where the points are. The total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Doesn’t really apply to tonight’s slate. Small slate without a true stud to pay for.
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