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NBA DFS Picks: Core Plays and Slate Strategy (1/22)

trey johnson and mike ehrmantraut

Thursday brings different slates on both sites. For once, there are more games on DraftKings than there are on FanDuel. Turns out it’s a pretty important one, as we’ve got the Jazz hosting the Spurs in the final game of the night on DK. Things look quite different on FD without that potential shootout, and I’m sure we’ll have plenty of injury situations to navigate, as usual.

Below, I’ll provide some brief game-by-game breakdowns along with the usual #coar #plaze.

DK Core Plays

  • Stephon Castle
  • Tre Johnson
  • Alex Sarr
  • Noah Penda

FD Core Plays

  • Tre Johnson
  • Jamal Murray
  • Noah Penda
  • Aaron Gordon

Nuggets-Wiz

The Nuggets are only 5.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight after narrowly beating them in Denver like a week ago. Denver still has injuries – no Jokic, Braun, or Johnson – but JoVal (Q) could come back. Valanciunas is probably limited if he plays, so he doesn’t really matter at $6,100 on DK, but $3,900 on FD is very playable if he’s starting. Otherwise, it’s kinda business-as-usual here. Great spots for both Murray and Gordon, though Gordon looks a little better if he’s starting at the 5 with JoVal out. Jamal gets a matchup boost with Coulibaly out for WAS. Still good either way, though. I suppose you can consider Watson, Jones, and THJ, but they’re fringe values, at best.

The ‘Zards also have some injuries. Bilal is out tonight along with Vuk, AJ Johnson, Trae, and Whitmore. Bagley is Q with an illness. Tre Johnson has played 30+ in 2 straight and 3 of the last 5, and he’s just a phenomenal play now that he’s randomly down to $4,500 on DK for no reason. Sarr is also too cheap at under $7,000, and there’s a chance both of his backups are missing if Bag is out. I’m ok with any of Kyshawn, Champagnie, or Middleton. Johnson and Sarr are borderline core plays, IMO.

Hornets-Magic

Charlotte’s dramatic comeback bid fell short last night against the Cavs, and we’ll see what the injury report says. LaMelo came off the bench again and played like utter shit, while Plumlee is out. LaMelo is Q, Miller is probable. If everyone else is in, I’m once again mostly interested in Miller as a midrange SF option in the $7,000 range given his sky-high usage. Fine with Kon or Bridges if you land on ’em. Not a great spot for Diabate, but he’s affordable enough to crack a player pool. Sexton and the other high-usage starters get a bump if LaMelo is out.

We haven’t had Orlando on a slate in a while because they were on a European jaunt with the Grizzlies. They’re without Suggs tonight, but everyone else is back, including Various Wagners. Good matchup, but everyone’s pretty expensive. I suppose Black at $7,400 on FD with PG/SG is okay, I’m just not dying to get to anything here.

Rockets-Sixers

Houston is favored by 2.5 points here on the road in a fairly low-total game. Still no Adams, FVV, or Holiday, while Tari came back in the last game and played around 20 off the bench with Okogie starting. You can always fire up Sengun, Durant, or Amen in a GPP lineup, I just don’t think anything stands out with the team largely healthy.

George is Q for the 76ers who are otherwise at full strength. Really tough spot against a top-tier defense. George sitting would open things up for Embiid/Maxey with a bigger role for Oubre, but I’m not super interested in this team, either. Games involving the Rockets generally don’t become shootouts.

Warriors-Mavs

Jimmy is obviously out for the season, while Payton is also Q here. Everyone’s more expensive than they were the other night, but they’re actually 5.5-point favorites because Dallas is booty. I’m generally not a fan of rostering Draymond, but $5,500 on DK is getting pretty damn cheap. I’ll probably just play him here and hope he’s engaged. Curry and Podz would be next on my list of priorities, followed (distantly) by Kuminga, Moody, Melton, things of that nature. Melton is a better play on FD. Kuminga, Buddy, and Spencer got there in the last game thanks to a boatload of garbage time. Feels chasey.

AD, Kyrie, Gafford, Lively, and Exum are all out for Dallas. I think PJ looks the most underpriced of anyone at $6,400 on DK, but not like he’s that cheap, either. Naji, Flagg, Christie, etc. have all been priced appropriately. We’ll have some value at C between Powell or Cisse with the other bigs still out. Cisse probably has the higher ceiling, even off the bench. My favorite play here is probably Williams, but hardly a conviction play or anything.

Bulls-Wolves

Giddey’s probable now, Williams is Q, Collins is still out. I’m probably fully fading this team. Bad spot, bad value, the whole thing.

The MIN side is much more appealing, as the Bulls are trash. Still only Shannon missing from the lineup. Chicago gives is up in the paint, so elite spot for Rudy and Randle, primarily. Edwards is a terrific play, and I’m okay enough with Naz. Donte and McDaniels are secondary types, at best.

Spurs-Jazz

The Spurs step into Coors Field tonight with still only Vassell out, though Kornet/Sochan are questionable. I think Harper is currently one of the best value plays on the slate, especially considering he could see garbage time. Kornet is pretty cheap ($4,000) and in a decent spot of his own if he plays, though he feels a little thin as a backup. I’d rank the stars Castle, Wemby, then Fox in terms of priority, though I’ll be pretty heavily invested in Castle + Wemby. Keldon is a very good cheapie, while Champagnie is a bit pricey. Ceiling is obviously there if he makes a million threes again.

Utah is a nightmare, and this is the last game of the night. Get ready to late swap. Markkanen is still out, George and Sensabaugh are both Q. Fun! Keyonte is one of the best midrange plays on the slate if he suits up despite the tougher matchup. He’s got an arm injury, so not concerned about a limit if he suits up. Sensabaugh is also a very strong midrange play…if he plays. If they’re out, we’re suddenly lookin’ at a ton of value here with stuff like Collier, Clayton, Bailey, and such.

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