We have reached the point of the 2026 NBA playoffs where we have elimination games. There are two such contests tonight, so this slate could get ugly in a hurry. I do tend to think that the absence of ANT and Donte DiVincenzo gives Denver a real shot at prolonging their series, of course.
The good news is DraftKings has a three-game NBA DFS main slates, so there’s enough to work with and feel reasonably confident about. Per usual, the big question is whether or not to pay up for Jokic. He has not made us pay yet, but at home with Denver’s season on the line, there’s a decent chance he could tonight. I’ll help you gauge this slate, highlight my top NBA DFS picks to build around, and also touch on some tourney plays. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Aaron Gordon, Kevin Huerter, and Jordan Goodwin. ANT/DiVincenzo/Mark Williams are all OUT.
- Best value plays: Ayo Dosunmu. Way too cheap for a massive role.
- Top game to attack: MIN/DEN if it can stay close. Fastest pace and highest total potential.
- Top stud: Jokic. He hasn’t gone off yet and Cade/SGA exist but he has the best proj/ceiling.
- Blowout risks: All. Two games have 10+ pt spreads and can end tonight. The Pistons game is a must-win for DET and could easily be a housing if they show up.
Top NBA DFS Picks for Monday
- Ayo Dosunmu ($5.8k)
- Mike Conley ($3.7k)
- Oso Ighodaro ($4.9k)
Need more direction? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are both out tonight. ANT could miss the rest of this series and Donte (Achilles) is flat out cooked. This opens up a ton of minutes and usage, with Ayo being the mother of all locks. I think Conley (20 min last game) is cheap enough and will have enough of a role to warrant the punt, too.
Ayo needs no sales pitch. He’s been feasting and his salary hasn’t adjusted. There’s real blowout risk with a desperate Nuggets team looking to extend this thing, but he should be super involved for however long he’s out there. He’s quite the scary fade.
Conley is someone you could get away from, but he just makes for easier builds and he should play 20-25 minutes, if not more. I think he’s worth the risk, but if he’s crazy owned I can see fading. He’s a lock if playing Jokic, and he’s probably a lock for me even if I’m not.
Oso played a ton last game and Mark Williams remains out. The production isn’t elite, but the salary remains low and he could play 35 minutes again. OKC is a brutal matchup and this game could blow out, but I think the value is too good to fade.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/27
To Jokic or not to Jokic? I am leaning toward playing him. I think every single game feels shaky on this slate, but his Nuggets have to win tonight. He’s been weak by his standards, but now would be a good time for a vintage Joker performance.
You don’t have to play Jokic, of course, as SGA and Cade exist. The 2nd tier is not as welcoming as it’s been on other slates. I think I am either playing Jokic or I am pairing Cade and SGA.
- 🟢 SAFE – Ayo. Huge role and way too cheap. Hard to envision him failing.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Oso and Conley. Low usage and their roles and production could be somewhat volatile.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/27
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Monday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Julius Randle ($7.7k)
- Desmond Bane ($6.9k)
- Wendell Carter Jr. ($5.7k)
ANT is out, so someone has to benefit from that extra usage. Obviously Ayo is so cheap that we have to go there first, but it doesn’t seem like the field wants to play Randle. Technically, he is too cheap for an expanded role in such a huge game. I like the idea of going over the field here.
Bane is a nice price and he’s had a good series from a real life perspective. Nobody likes to play Magic guys, let alone against Detroit. I do tend to think this is a bad spot for Orlando guys, but they can shock the world by taking a 3-1 series lead. Bane’s ceiling and ownership make him a compelling play at this price.
I never like to play chalk WCJ, but he isn’t projecting for any ownership at all on this slate. He’s just $800 more than Oso and he’s been way better in the playoffs. In three games against the Pistons he’s managed to smash twice and the only game he was bad he had foul trouble.
Carter Jr. isn’t a guy I want to hang my entire slate on, but the price is good, he’s weirdly punked Duren in this series, and nobody will be playing him.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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