If you played CMB and Kuminga last night you were on your way to glory. I also had Jalen Johnson as one of my top GPP plays if you weren’t playing Jokic and he smashed. There were a ton of landmines last night, however, one of which was inexplicably ANT in a huge game three.
That was thanks to Denver deciding to be utter trash for some reason. You were also probably cooked if you didn’t play Scottie Barnes, who ended up being the play of the slate. I did talk him up in my video, though, so hopefully you got to him a good deal. Friday allows us to hit the reset button, so let’s find out which top plays and GPP pivots we should have interest in. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Wemby, Austin Reaves, Kevin Durant.
- Best value plays: Scoot Henderson. Playing big minutes and is too cheap.
- Top game to attack: Spurs vs. Blazers.
- Top stud: Tight spread, fast pace, and highest total.
- Blowout risks: Lakers/Rockets. I think they all carry some risk, though.
Top NBA DFS Picks for Friday
- Donovan Clingan ($6.6k)
- Scoot Henderson ($5k)
- Alperen Sengun ($8.3k)
- Reed Sheppard ($4.4k)
Update 2: Wemby was at shootaround. Starting to think he plays. Dumb! If he’s in we can’t play Kornet/Castle into ownership and Castle is just too pricey. I’m off Spurs spends, but Wemby is obviously in play and Spurs value like Harper/Champaigne is fine. I am high on Deni and you can check my GPP plays below for some tourney pivots. KD is OUT. We need some Rockets. Sengun was already there and now I added Reed. Looks like Tari and Jabari also get big boosts, but Reed is so cheap I’d start there.
Need more direction? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
I am going into this slate under the assumption that Wemby isn’t playing. If I die, I die. That leads me to Kornet and Castle. Fox and pretty much any other Spurs options are playable, but I think Castle takes over as the main guy in a pretty huge game.
Kornet played a lot with Wemby only logging 11 minutes last game. He will be needed to combat Clingan’s size and I think they both can feast. Right now our tool’s projections don’t love Castle but I am anticipating a massive spike without Wemby.
Clingan is too cheap. He is a double-double machine and while I love Kornet on the other side, I don’t think he can stop him from rebounding or scoring inside.
I also love Scoot for savings. You can pair him with the chalky Reed Sheppard or pivot from Reed to him. I like both a lot, but if picking just one it’s easily Scoot for me.
I also am very high on Sengun and Deni for this slate. If Austin Reaves is back I am OK being light on Lakers in a game I expect the Rockets to win.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/24
The main strategy for me is to play for Wemby to be out. If we catch that news early then everyone is on the same level, but if he’s a GTD we can use the unknown to our advantage and load up on these Blazers/Spurs guys at lower ownership.
Even if Wemby is ruled out early, I still see no reason to get cute and to fade Kornet. I think due to price you can talk me out of Castle/Fox, but I would still probably play one.
The game I am least interested in is BOS/PHI. The Celtics shot horrible in game two and I doubt that happens again. Both of the first two games have more blowout risk than the Portland game, so in general firing up Blazers/Spurs and getting different in how we stack that game might just be The Way.
- 🟢 SAFE – Kornet and Castle. Assuming Wemby is out, they look fantastic and Kornet is simply too cheap.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Clingan and Scoot. Scoot can be volatile and Wemby playing would lower Clingan’s floor/ceiling, but both are also mispriced.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/24
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Friday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- LeBron James ($9.8k)
- Jaylen Brown ($9k)
- Payton Pritchard ($6.1k)
King James has been very good through two games against a tough Rockets defense, clearing 50+ fantasy points in both. The series shifts to Houston and L.A. will be sizable 9.5-point underdogs, plus his price has spiked to almost $10k.
The presence of Jayston Tatum, Tyrese Maxey, and POR/SAN plays could keep his ownership in check, but he still has as much upside as anyone on this slate. If nobody wants to play LeBron, I’m game.
Brown is leverage on what should be a pretty owned Jayson Tatum. Tatum seems to only be bad when I am off of him and today I like him, so you do the math. Either way, if a good chunk of the field wants to pay an additional $700 we can simply not do that and bet on Brown out-performing his teammate at lower ownership.
Sticking with Boston, I like Pritchard a bit in GPPs. His minutes can be shaky, but Boston launches threes at will and he’s part of their process. If he can catch fire he’ll keep his minutes and be a candidate to break the slate. Why? Not just because he won’t be owned, but also because his price range and the presence of other appealing guards (Reed, Kennard, Scoot) will make for instant leverage.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply