Hello! Happy Monday. MLB is back tonight with a nice 8-game slate that does not include any Coors Field shenanigans. Lovely! We do have another game at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, though that game also carries the risk of postponement. The Cubs moved the start time from 7:40 ET to 7:10 ET, though I’m not sure whether that’ll actually help. We’ll see, I guess.
It’s an interesting slate with some aces at the top, some intriguing options in the midrange, and a $4,000 guy taking the mound in San Francisco. Let’s dive in.
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for 5/4
- Cam Schlittler ($10,000, vs. BAL)
- Jose Soriano ($9,600, vs. CWS)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,300, at HOU)
- Logan Gilbert ($9,000, vs. ATL)
- Davis Martin ($7,800, at LAA)
- Shane Baz ($7,400, at NYY)
- Trevor McDonald ($4,000, vs. SD)
So! Cam Schlittler is pretty good. We’re paying a premium for him, but he hasn’t given us any reason to doubt he’s worth it. The Yankee right-hander has a sparkling 31.4% strikeout rate to go along with a tiny 3.8% walk rate and a 2.52 SIERA. I’m not sure the SIERA is sustainable considering he’d probably have to be the best pitcher in the league to sustain it, but, hey, maybe he is.
Tonight, Schlitty will toe the rubber at home against Baltimore. This is a lineup with a lotta power (.203 ISO, .336 wOBA vs. RHP), but also plenty of strikeouts (23.1%). I think Schlittler is a great play if you want to pay all the way up, and I have no qualms with doing so. Weird word, qualms.
Does anyone else have Logan Gilbert Fatigue? He is good, and I expect him to resume being good at some point, but he’s been wildly unlucky so far. The K-rate is down (24.4%) from where it was last year (32.3%), but his 3.46 SIERA tells us his 4.03 ERA is luck-based. Gilbert’s BABIP is super high (.349), so once that comes down, he should start to see results. Gilbert’s Stuff+ numbers look like they did last year – except for some awful numbers with the slider – so the strikeouts should start to come around. A matchup against Atlanta is suboptimal, but at least Gilbert is at home, and the Braves don’t have Ronald Acuna Jr. at the moment. It’s still not a great strikeout spot (19.9% vs. RHP), but I like the $9,000 salary. I’m back in on Gilbert, as always.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a sub-3.00 ERA, but his strikeouts and groundballs are both way down from where they were in 2025. His barrel rate is also high, though not necessarily egregiously, and tonight he’ll face that righty-heavy Astros lineup in Houston. The ‘Stros aren’t a terrible offense, and they’re another average matchup for Ks (20.1%). He’s a solid play, I’m just not sure he’s a priority. I’ll rank Yamamoto 4th among the pitchers above $9,000.
Jose Soriano has come back down to earth a little over his past two starts, including his last against the same White Sox team he’ll face tonight, this time at home. His 30.1% K-rate would be a career-best for a full season by a huge margin if he sustains it, while he’s one of the best groundballers in the league (55.7%). His control (9.8% walks) remains shaky. Whether he succeeds depends on limiting walks and some BABIP luck, though I’m optimistic the higher strikeout rate is real.
The White Sox aren’t a pushover offense anymore, and, like the Braves and Astros, they’re only striking out around 20% of the time against righties. I officially prefer Gilbert and Schlittler, but I’ll likely be heavily invested in Soriano, as well.
From here, we’re looking at cheap stuff. Davis Martin hasn’t been much of anything in previous years, but he’s pitching very well to begin 2026. His 3.66 SIERA suggests his 1.95 ERA is due to regress, but of course it is. A 3.66 SIERA is still terrific, especially for a guy with a career 4.47 mark. Martin’s 22.9% strikeout rate is also the highest of his career, though it’s not all that high relative to the league.
The key here is Martin has been dominant vs. RHBs, and the Angels are nothing but RHBs with a couple of low-caliber lefties. Martin is also just $7,800, which is a meaningful discount from the top tier. I don’t love it, but I’m okay with playing him.
Shane Baz gets the Yankees on the road. That’s easily the most daunting matchup of the pitchers I’m considering today, though I do think Baz’s current 19.3% strikeout rate is due to rise. The Yankees are the most powerful lineup in the league (.218 ISO, .357 wOBA vs. RHP), but there are also some Ks (23.5%). I won’t be heavily invested in Baz, but he’s playable in large-field stuff at $7,500.
Let’s talk about the $4,000 guy, Trevor McDonald. He’s been starting in the minors, so he should be cleared for 80-90 pitches tonight at home against San Diego if all goes well enough. This guy isn’t a major prospect, and he profiles as a right-hander who’ll generate more groundballs than strikeouts. The Padres only have a couple of strikeout-prone bats, but they do hit the ball on the ground at a decent clip.
The main thing is the salary. If things go well, maybe McDonald can get you 15 points. If you knew a $4,000 hitter would score 15 points, you’d probably play him in every lineup. I don’t think spending all the way down for him is enough of a necessity to make him a core play, but I will be getting to some McDonald where I need the salary for bats.
SP Rankings
- Schlittler
- Gilbert
- Soriano
- Yamamoto
- Martin
- McDonald
- Baz
Top MLB DFS Stacks Today (5/4)
- Cubs (vs. Chase Petty)
- Reds (at Edward Cabrera)
- Mariners (vs. JR Ritchie)
- Dodgers (at Steven Okert/bullpen)
- Cardinals (vs. Chad Patrick)
- Yankees (vs. Shane Baz)
So we’ve got wind blowing out at Wrigley again. If the rain holds off, the Cubs are quite clearly the top overall offense against Cincy right-hander Chase Petty. Petty was a total disaster in 3 appearances for the Reds last year, and he’s had some control trouble even at the lower levels. He looks attackable with hitters from either side, so I’m stacking the Cubs without prejudice. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP early on, while Moises Ballesteros, Alex Bregman, and Miguel Amaya aren’t far off the pace. It’s a good, deep lineup, and I’m happy to play them even into what should be ownership.
The Reds’ matchup against Edward Cabrera is trickier. He’s another right-hander with some control issues, though he’s also been striking out RHBs at a stellar 32.8% clip. LHBs (10%)…not so much. Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, TJ Friedl, Nathaniel Lowe, and Will Benson will all hold the platoon edge against Cabrera, so there’s a pretty solid 5-man to fire up right there. I’ll play Sal Stewart against anybody, too.
The Mariners’ bats tend to be sleepy when they’re at home, but they do get an exploitable draw against rookie RHP JR Ritchie. Ritchie is an okay prospect, but left-handed hitters (.294 ISO, .419 wOBA, 11.5% barrels) have lit him up early on since his arrival in the majors. Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Luke Raley, and Dom Canzone are the Mariners’ lefties with legit power, while I’m fine with JP Crawford and Cole Young for savings. Ritchie looks better equipped to deal with RHBs, but I don’t mind plopping Julio Rodriguez into some full stacks.
The Dodgers could be sneaky here if the Wrigley game garners all the ownership. Their bats have been dormant recently, but they’ve gotta snap out of it at some point. The Astros’ pitching situation has been an utter mess all season. Lefty Steven Okert will open this game, and I’d expect Ryan Weiss to be among those tasked with covering multiple innings. While I don’t generally like to target bullpen games, the Astros’ bullpen is horrendous. Shohei Ohtani (13.8% barrels), Freddie Freeman (10.7%), and Kyle Tucker (10%) are all making quality contact despite some struggles. Max Muncy, Andy Pages, and Teoscar Hernandez round it out, as always. Fully stacking the expensive Dodgers is made easier by the $4,000 pitcher. I love this stack tonight.
Baz allowed a ton of power to righties last year, while lefties (.402 wOBA, .181 ISO) are tagging him this year. I guess he’s just targetable with anybody. Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Jazz Chisholm are the left-handed headliners, while all Aaron Judge has done is post a .313 ISO and a .407 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Silly.
The Cardinals have been plucky with the bats this season, while Chad Patrick (13.9% Ks, 11.3% walks) is really struggling. The St. Louis lineup is underrated. Jordan Walker (19.1% barrels) is finally breaking out, while Ivan Herrera, JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church, and Pedro Pages all have barrel rates of at least 9% vs. RHP.
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