Kevin did Core Plays today, and there isn’t any hockey worth playing, so I figured I should at least do something productive with my time. We live in a society, after all. Core Plays gives you a set of #building #blocks to anchor your lineups for cash games and GPPs.
Here, I was thinking I’d take a look at some of the players projecting to be the most popular on the slate and break down whether I think they’re worth playing. If not, I’ll offer a few pivots I’d strongly consider as lower-owned alternatives. Ownership projections are always subject to change, especially with the way injury news shakes up every slate. Regardless, here’s how I’m lookin’ at the chalk ahead of tonight’s 9-gamer.
Danny Wolf ($4,500, 31% projected own)
The Nets are on the 2nd half of a B2B tonight in Utah after a close loss in Denver yesterday. Michael Porter Jr., Noah Clowney, and Ziaire Williams are out, which opens up quite a lot here.
Wolf’s been good (0.91 DK FPPM) with MPJ and Clowney off the floor, and the absence of 3 rotation forwards should make Wolf’s minutes secure enough. He actually started last night’s game and played 28 minutes. He didn’t quite get there, but he was a great late-swap play after he was announced as a starter, and the 28 minutes were the most he’s played in a game since the beginning of the month.
Even with some absences, the Nets have enough bodies to play an annoyingly deep rotation. The matchup with Utah literally Could Not Be Better. I get it. I am a card-carrying member of the Wolfpack, but I wouldn’t say this is necessarily great chalk, especially if his ownership really gets steamed up into the 50% range. He could certainly get up there, particularly in single-entries.
I’ll still have plenty of Wolf over several lineups. If you’re playing SE, this is a guy I think you can fade. A few similarly-priced pivots who look pretty good at much lower ownership are Day’Ron Sharpe, Justin Champagnie, and, yes, noted septuagenarian Al Horford. I’ll be a little surprised if any of them pull much more than like 15% ownership, and they’re not that dissimiliar in terms of median projection.
Kyle Filipowski ($5,800, 38% pOWN%)
On the other side of the game, we have the Jazz playing without Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Kevin Love, or Walker Kessler. Brooklyn isn’t the worst of the worst defensively, but they are generally more exploitable with bigs. With so many frontcourt pieces out, Filipowski looks like a shoo-in to start at center. The only other “bigs” available here are Kyle Anderson and Taylor Hendricks, and neither is a center.
Filipowski isn’t really a center, either, but he can at least pass for one in this matchup. He’s also been outstanding (1.13 DK FP/minute) with those guys on the bench this season. I’m not scared off by the matchup against Brooklyn, especially with the Nets on a B2B. Filipowski should find himself around 30 minutes.
The $6,000 range is pretty strong on this slate, but he’s also not really the only guy pulling ownership. The most comparable “pivots” with either PF or C eligibility are Saddiq Bey and Jock Landale. While they won’t be as popular as Filipowski, I also think both will be between 10% and 20% owned.
The closest thing to a low-owned pivot who makes sense to me is the $5,700 Neemias Queta, who appears unowned completely despite an elite matchup against the Kings. His game does have some blowout risk, and there’s at least some question about his minutes after he’s been battling an illness all week.
I think Filipowski is a stronger chalk play than Wolf, though I don’t hate that Queta pivot if you do need an ownership discount in an otherwise chalky lineup.
Derrick White ($7,700, 41% pOWN%)
Jaylen Brown won’t play tonight, and we know the deal by now in this situation: just play the other two high-usage guards, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. Boston gets a nice draw here at home against a Kings team on a B2B that will be without a couple of starters.
I think Pritchard is likely to be the chalkiest player at any position on the slate, and it’s helpful that he’s $1,000 cheaper than White. Both players have thrived with JB off the floor. White is averaging 1.2 DK FP/minute for the season without Brown, Pritchard is at 1.26. Both great plays. Anfernee Simons is cheap ($4,700) and looks pretty good here, too.
Because of the salary, I think White’s the chalk piece I’m most comfortable pivoting away from in some builds. It’s harder for White to put up a score you have to have to win a GPP because he’s the most expensive of these Bostonian guards. The slate is pretty rich with similarly-priced PG/SG plays who won’t be nearly as popular as White. Trey Murphy ($8,100) looks like the clear-cut top pivot if you can find the extra $400 in a great game environment against Memphis. Kyshawn George ($7,600) and Jalen Brunson ($8,300) are also in this range. Neither looks quite as appealing as White, obviously, but we know both players still offer significant ceilings at quite a bit less ownership.
Dennis Schroder ($5,100, 20% pOWN%)
The Kings won’t have Russ or Sabonis again tonight. Dennis Schroder started in Westbrook’s place last night and put up a terrific score in a close game in Philly despite just 27 minutes. Tonight, the Kings get a much tougher draw against a well-rested Celtics team, albeit one without Jaylen Brown. The spread is only around 11 points, but the absence of Sabonis makes the Kings more vulnerable to a blowout, imo.
I don’t think Schroder will be quite a popular as he was yesterday, but he’ll still get some attention. Schroder (1.07 FP/minute) has played quite well with those other facilitators off the floor. Schroder is a pretty excellent play on this slate, especially relative to the projected ownership. It looks like Anfernee Simons will be similarly popular, but I think Schroder’s range of outcomes is better. Simons has had a very low floor in that bench role this season.
If you do want to fade either Simons or Schroder into some ownership, I like Egor Demin, Malik Monk, and Cam Thomas in the same salary tier. I do think Schroder is the best of the lot, though, and I’ll play him ahead of the others.
Leave a Reply