UFC Fight Night 257 is set up to be a banger. I was not expecting much after the amazing show we got at UFC 319, but there are actually several interesting fights – and a lot of spots where some early finishes could pop up.
UFC Shanghai does include a lot of names you’re probably not familiar with, but it also presents us with a lot of fun plays to consider. The MMA core has been rock solid lately, but Chase Hooper got rocked in the first round last week and prevented a 3-0 sweep.
The goal of my MMA DFS picks are to give you three fighters that we should feel really confident about 1. getting a win 2. offering some upside and 3. being reasonable options that we can get to with salary in mind at DraftKings.
With that, let’s dive into my top UFC DFS picks for UFC Shanghai.
Zhang Mingyang ($9.4k)
I am seeing Aljamain Sterling as major chalk. I think he’s a fine play, but I kind of like the Brian Ortega side of that bout for GPPs, and playing both Sterling and Mingyang might be a bad idea.
Are they both favorites and projecting like gods? Yep, but they’re also both over 53% owned at the moment. If that holds, I think I’d rather just use the guy I like more and hope the other one either gets upset or doesn’t break the slate.
Ortega is older now, but he’s still a historically great fighter that could easily win and/or stave off a finish.
Mingyang, meanwhile, is just $400 more than Sterling and is a legit menace. He is 3-0 so far in the UFC and has finished all of his opponents with KOs. He’s in the main event in front of his home crowd and he’s a big favorite, and I won’t be betting against him. Plus we get up to 5 rounds of damage. I will just look to get different elsewhere in my UFC DFS lineups.
Sergei Pavlovich ($8.9k)
Pavlovich is favored to win, he’s under $9k, and he is a early win monster. He’s run into some losses during a 1-2 stretch lately, but before that he was on fire with seven straight wins – all by knockout!
The upside is massive here and he comes in with a top 5 projection and somehow is just 31% owned. I am all for that. I think he has the edge against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who gives up a significant 6-inches in reach in this matchup.
Ajimain Sterling ($9k)
I originally had Brian Ortega here as an awesome value. He’s just $7.2k and this fight is getting 5 rounds as the co-main event. But then he looked like a zombie at his weigh-in:
It’s been reported that he even allegedly fainted, so I can’t suggest playing him. Instead, Sterling may get an easy win here, unless Ortega is messing with us all and playing mental gymnastics.
Sterling was the favorite anyways, but now he feels like a lock. He’s not cheap and he’s chalky, but if that version of Ortega shows up, he’s cooked.
I will say that this is a somewhat risky core play just because given Ortega’s state, I wouldn’t be super shocked if this bout got yanked. That said, if it’s a go, I don’t know who we wouldn’t feel great about Sterling’s chances.
Other guys I am eyeing: Charles Johnson and Michel Pereira
There are other expensive guys we should all be interested in, but Johnson looks like a really good value at $7.4k. You could pivot to him from Ortega if you’d like. Pereira is a finishing monster who simply has run into some bad luck lately. I think he gets back on track this week and he narrowly misses out on making my MMA DFS core for UFC Fight Night 257.
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