UFC 328 brings one of the most explosive cards of the year, headlined by a massive middleweight showdown between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland. With elite grappling, knockout power, and DFS-friendly fighting styles all over this card, there’s serious upside for DraftKings MMA DFS players looking to build winning lineups.
Last week was another huge success for us, as our featured MMA DFS picks went a perfect 3-0 while delivering massive value across the slate. Now we’re looking to keep the momentum rolling at UFC 328 by breaking down the best high-upside fighters, underpriced value plays, and smart tournament pivots to help you crush both cash games and GPPs. Let’s build!
🥊New to MMA DFS? Slate Overview
- Best value play: Joshua Van. The champ is on fire and has the striking edge in his matchup.
- Best GPP pivot: Baisangur Susurkaev. Rangy favorite is a price pivot from chalky Chimaev.
- Top stud: Chimaev. His style plays well over 5 rounds and he’s favored with the 2nd best proj.
- Safest fighter: Gautier. Very expensive, but has top projection and crazy ITD and 1R KO odds.
- Biggest Upset risk: Taira
Best MMA DFS Picks for UFC 328
- Khamzat Chimaev ($9.5k)
- Joshua Van ($7.5k)
- Ateba Gautier ($9.8k)
🥊New to MMA DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, are usually favored to win, and score takedowns/rack up strikes/and or have a clear path to an early finish. The goal with an MMA Core isn’t to save you cash. It’s to get you three high upside wins that leave enough room to build out the rest of your lineup.
It starts with Chimaev for me. The guy can post insane numbers (242 in his last fight!!), and he has a clear edge in grappling in this matchup. The older Strickland survived a similar matchup last time, but just barely and not one as daunting as this.
Chimaev is the better fighter, he’s undefeated, and he’s utterly dominant. There’s always a slim chance Strickland catches him or pushes this to a Decision, but it’d take a Strickland finish to make Chimaev a bad play. Everyone is playing him, so the fade is about as risky as it gets. His floor is absurd and his ceiling is out of this world, so I won’t be entertaining fading him.
Van is the top value on the board. There’s some underrated mid-range stuff and some punts I’ll get to in my GPP plays, but he really stands out as a fantastic value. He’s a terrific striker and the current champion at his weight class, but it’s worth noting he enters as a +130 underdog against Tatsuro Taira.
Taira is a very skilled fighter and he has the reach and wrestling advantage here. However, Van just took out Alexandre Pantoja and has been on fire. Tair’a resume is also strong, but he did lose to Royval – a guy Van beat. Taira has never been finished, but Van has the striking edge and should be able to fend off Taira’s takedown offense. If he can do that, I think he can pull off the upset.
Gautier is a guy we should probably just pay up for and move on. He and Chimaev are ridiculously expensive, but they own the top two projections of the slate. Gautier is insanely explosive with 8 KO wins in 11 fights. I will say he was pretty disappointing in his last fight, but before that he had three straight finishes (107+ fps in each).
In this one, Gautier is facing Osman Diaz, who has been finished in all three of his losses. He hasn’t faced much top shelf competition and when he has he’s gotten obliterated. Gautier has massive KO upside here and he is favored to finish this thing specifically in the first round, and a wild -700 bet to end it before the bell rings. I won’t be passing on what figures to be a gimme pick, regardless of ownership.
- 🟢 SAFE Chimaev & Gautier. 5 round backdrop and crazy finishing upside.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST Van. Insane value but he’s a slight underdog against a very good fighter.
Sneaky MMA DFS GPP Pivots for UFC 328
🥊New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his/her upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Sean Strickland (6.7k)
- Jeremy Stephens ($7k)
- Djorden Santos ($6.6k)
I don’t think Strickland actually wins this fight, but he’s as tough as they come and he is looking at a possible five rounds. He more than held his own against a strong grappler in his last bought, so who is to say he can’t do it again? Me, I guess. But hey, he’s cheap and MMA is volatile. Is there a world where he dominates on the feet and wins in 5 rounds? Sure.
Stephens is probably washed, but he’s facing another old fighter, so anything can happen. I created a little upset tool to project the best leverage points on this slate, and Stephens ranked third. I think part of that is his striking, while he’s actually been pretty successful outside of the UFC (BKF). Perhaps that can translate in a fight that could stay on the feet and benefit him.
Santos is a pretty fun leverage play and another punt, seeing as Susurkaev could gain some steam as a popular pivot off of Chimaev. I’m not going that route, so taking some shots on Santos (who ranks #1 in my upset pick tool), makes some sense.
I still think Susurkaev (27%) is a very strong GPP play in his own right, while solid fighters like Roman Kopylov, Joel Alvarez, and Joaquin Buckley are all reasonably priced and not carrying much ownership.
If you need more help with your basic strategy, check out our MMA DFS guide.
🥊Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to MMA DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Narratives can be a thing. Guys fighting for a title shot. Fighters battling in front of their home crowd. UFC debuts. The list goes on. Know what goes into each bout and what is on the line for every fighter before you click their name.
- Know fighter styles. MMA DFS is very nuanced. What style fighters use, how often they get finishes, how their defense is – all of this plays into their salary, projection, value, and odds of winning. Make sure you know the fighting styles and path to production for both fighters before making your pick.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- 5 round fight. The main event offers a little more upside, depending on the fighter. In theory, the more rounds you fight, the more points you can accrue. But don’t forget about fighter styles and how they generate points. For instance, if your fighter doesn’t get takedowns, he better get a lot of strikes or land a finish at some point.
- Upset special. Upsets happen in MMA (a lot). Not every upset is worth targeting, though. Try to put a good amount of logic/reasoning behind big swings. Ie, what is the path for this underdog to win, and how likely is it? Just as importantly, if they don’t win, how likely are they to get upset, or can they accrue points in a Decision loss?
- Who to target: Lastly, make sure you prioritize fighters who can get takedowns, rack up strikes, secure control time, end fights quickly, and grind out wins. All of those things matter and if you can combine some of them, even better. If your pick can only get you one of those things, you might want to keep looking. If they can’t get you any of those things, your decision is made a lot easier.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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