We have been on a big break from MMA DFS, but the UFC is back in full force this weekend at UFC 324. It’s a massive even that would have been even bigger if Kayla Harrison didn’t hurt her neck, but we still get a tense showdown between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, while Sean O’Malley has been elevated to co-main event status.
It’s a really inviting card with a ton of top shelf talent, but which MMA DFS picks should we build around? I’ll break down my favorite plays and hand out some picks to help you build winning MMA DFS lineups at DraftKings.
MMA DFS Core Plays for UFC 324
- Jean Silva ($9.1k)
- Paddy Pimblett ($8.9k)
- Sean O’Malley ($8.8k)
I’d love to get to Ateba Gautier. He’s just absurdly expensive. I also think it goes without saying that Justin Gaethje is a strong cash game play. But I hate cash games in MMA DFS. We want to pick all winners, we want finishes if we can get them, and we want a GPP takedown.
I think this MMA DFS core gets us halfway there. You’ll still need to nail some value picks, but Silva, Paddy, and O’Malley are really good bets to win, and if they get it done like I think they can, they should score a lot of points. All three project for over 100+ fantasy points
Jean Silva
He got caught by a spinning back elbow against Diego Lopes in his last fight. No shame in that. He’d been on a vicious tear, finishing each of the five previous fighters he faced. He is an absolute menace, though, and probably has a title shot in his future.
Arnold Allen is no scrub, but he’s a little older now and hasn’t finished anyone in three years. That doesn’t mean he can’t, but a long layoff and Silva’s savage striking make him a poor bet. We want ruthless KO artists or guys who will rack up takedowns. Silva will hunt that KO until he finds it.
Paddy Pimblett
I was at one point a non-believer in Paddy, but he’s looked better and better with each passing fight. The way he destroyed Michael Chandler was very impressive, and now he gets a past-his-rime Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje is a warrior and could easily come out and beat the hell out of Paddy, but Pimblett has the grappling edge and is on fire. This interim title has his name written all over it. Sometimes we have to spot the hype machine and fade it, but I don’t think Paddy’s run is ending at UFC 324.
Sean O’Malley
While Paddy’s run is about to take off to a whole new level, we can tap into a comeback trail with a nasty striker like Sean O’Malley. He lost his last two matches, but those were against the typically unbeatable Merab.
O’Malley is not a wrestler, so those fights were probably always a lost cause. Yadong Song is a stud with power, but he’s eaten quite a few losses and O’Malley is the longer and quicker athlete. I think at the very worst he is going to hand out a lot of volume and win on points, or he’s going to get back to what he does best and remind everyone of his own power with a brutal knockout.
Other MMA DFS Picks
- Ateba Gautier ($9.7k)
- Modestas Bukauskas ($8.4k)
- Josh Hokit ($9k)
- Umar Nurmagomedov ($9.9k)
Gautier and Umar are mega locks. Gautier is basically the new Francis Ngannou. He and Umar are massive betting favorites and feel like locks to win. Both could easily get finishes, but Gautier seems like the safer bet to make that happen. Regardless, both are great plays if price isn’t an issue (it kinda is, though).
Modestas Bukauskas is in a free-for-all with Nikita Krylov. I think that bout could go either way and I’d definitely play both sides of it. Krylov is a finishing machine. Of his 30 career wins, 28 have come by stoppage. Of his 11 losses, eight have come by KO or submission. He can win with his fists or via wrestling, while Bukauksas will try to stay standing up. If successful, I think he knocks Krylov out.
Hokit is $9k and kind of going overlooked with guys like Paddy, Silva, and O’Malley in that same price range. I think they’re just more explosive options, but Hokit has the edge in his matchup and is a good bet to grind out a win.
UFC 324 DFS GPP Picks
- Alex Perez ($7.5k)
- Nikita Krylov ($7.8k)
- Derrick Lewis ($7k)
- Arnold Allen ($7.1k)
Shoutout to sub-$7k legends like Rose Numajunas and Fig. I don’t think they’ll win, but they are really talented fighters with some big wins in their back pocket. I am not getting there and they would probably be a waste of time, but YOLO.
If we’re being serious about saving cash, the first guy I feel good about is Alex Perez. And by feel good, I mean he is cheap and is facing a 35-year old Charles Johnson. I don’t feel great about it, but he’s one of the better value plays available to us.
Krylov is a great GPP play if you’re not playing Bukauskas. He is very risky due to his volatile fighting style, but if he gets the fight to the mat or baits Bukauskas into a chaotic exchange, he can end this thing quickly. I still lead Bukauskas, but as noted, I’d definitely get to them both if entering a lot of lineups.
Derrick Lewis is very interesting at $7k flat. Maybe this is his retirement fight. Perhaps Waldo Cortes-Acosta will murder him. All I know is he’s quite cheap for a guy with nothing to lose. In this range, he’s the only vet that actually has realistic finishing upside, too. The draw is bad on paper, but heavyweight bouts are inherently unpredictable and Lewis is 3-1 over his last four fights, with all of his wins coming via KO.
Let’s not ignore Arnold Allen, either. He’s in that same price range and is a fun GPP leverage play where you’re not rostering Jean Silva. Silva is very explosive and aggressive, but that means he often can leave himself open to nasty shots. He’s tough enough to withstand it and finish the fight, but Allen has literally never been knocked out and is more controlled. It isn’t insane to think he keeps Silva at bay and wins via Decision or simply finishes him like Lopes did.
Building a Winning UFC 324 DFS Lineup
At some point you will need to take on some risks in your MMA DFS lineups. Maybe you opt to dig deep with Fig or Rose. Perhaps you go with Perez and/or Lewis. Whatever the case, I think Umar/Gautier are a bit out of play due to their price. I’d rather roll with my MMA DFS core above, which allows me to limit myself to just two dives.
Right now I am getting to Bukauskas with my core, and then I can go get someone like Lewis and Perez. You can rotate whoever you want to get the lineup you want. Maybe that means fading Bukaukas for Krylov to pay up over Perez or Lewis. It could mean fading one of my core plays (like Silva) and going and getting Arnold.
The point is to 1. not be so married to the core that you don’t branch out to other possibilities and to 2. make sure you’re getting both sides of volatile spots.
Silva is an overly aggressive KO hunter. I love him on this slate, but if he fails there’s a decent chance Allen is the one getting the finish instead. And on we go. Hopefully my MMA DFS picks lead you to a big win. If so, share your winning lineup in Discord. Good luck!
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