Hello! Monday’s slate was a fun one that largely went according to plan. There was some action in the #big-win-szn channel in the DFS Build discord. We love to see it, don’t we folks? Many people are saying.
Lots of games on the board tonight, so I don’t have time for this. I’ve got 75 shortcakes to strawberry. Let’s get to strawberryin’.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Tuesday
- Gavin Williams ($10,500, at Angels)
- Tyler Glasnow ($10,000, at Braves)
- Kyle Harrison ($9,500, at Mets)
- Jacob deGrom ($9,300, at White Sox)
- Paul Skenes ($9,000, at Padres)
- Taj Bradley ($8,500, at A’s)
- Michael King ($8,000, vs. Pirates)
- Will Warren ($7,400, vs. Astros)
- Aaron Nola ($6,700, at Mariners)
- Matthew Liberatore ($6,300, vs. O’s)
- Chris Bassitt ($5,500, vs. Cardinals)
Another pretty good pitching slate here. Guess that means we’ll have some real shysters out there tomorrow! But we’ll worry about that tomorrow.
Safe to assume Gavin Williams will be heavy chalk in a road matchup against the Angels. The Angels are bad (.161 ISO, .300 wOBA, 25.8% Ks vs. RHP), and they should feel bad. Gavin has terrific numbers for the year (32.4% Ks, 7.7% walks, 2.96 SIERA). While we’ve seen some of the old control problems pop back up over the last month (9.7%), the strikeouts have also risen in that span to an extraordinary 39.8%.
The Angels have a few patient hitters near the top of the order, but I’m not concerned at all. Williams is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now, and $10,500 isn’t a particularly cumbersome salary, all things considered.
Tyler Glasnow is back after missing months with a back injury. The Dodgers haven’t given him a particularly soft landing here in a road matchup against the Braves, and he’s fully priced despite a likely pitch cap. He threw 77 pitches in a dominant final rehab outing, so 80-90 here is a reasonable expectation. While Glasnow was terrific pre-injury, there’s a lot of uncertainty here, and I’m not all that interested in taking the risk at $10,000 against Atlanta.
Kyle Harrison has flashed quite the wide range of outcomes since returning from the IL. He dominated the Pirates and Mariners on just 69 and 79 pitches, respectively, while he got rekt by the Padres on 90 pitches in between. He’s been right around 5 innings in all 3, so maybe they’re holding him to that rather than a firm pitch cap.
I assume they’ll increase his workload at some point, and maybe that point is tonight in Queens. Or maybe it isn’t. We don’t know. Maybe simple people eat crackers, we don’t know. Frankly, we don’t want to know. It’s a market we could do without.
Harrison has been great (30.3% Ks, 6.5% walks, 3.04 SIERA), and the Mets are an exploitable matchup for a southpaw (.158 ISO, .312 wOBA, 23% Ks). I’m pretty neutral on Harrison at $9,500. I’d play him over Glasnow, but neither of them is particularly close to Williams.
Jacob deGrom ($9,300) loves to pitch like shit, but the underlying numbers still say he pitches well more often than not. His strikeouts (30.3%), walks (6.2%), and SIERA (3.05) are all similar to Harrison’s, but deGrom (8.8%) has a high barrel rate. He’s a hard-thrower, and guys who’ve lived off of pure stuff tend to serve up the occasional dong.
DeGrom has a double-digit HR/FB% for the second season in a row, and they’ve largely been his undoing. There is power risk in a matchup against the White Sox (.189 ISO, .332 wOBA vs. RHP), but they’re also fairly high-strikeout (23.4%). Boom/bust pitcher in a boom/bust spot, but I like the $9,300 salary. The Rangers are in the playoff race, and he threw 94 pitches in his last start, so I don’t have leash concerns.
Paul Skenes also loves to pitch like shit. He threw 81 pitches in his last start after just 65 in the outing before that. He hasn’t had a particularly good outing in any of his last 4 despite not having faced a very daunting set of lineups. For the season, he still has a 29.7% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 3.17 SIERA, and that SIERA makes his 3.95 ERA look pretty fluky. This is really the inverse of his first two seasons, when he had a fluky sub-2.00 ERA.
Skenes’ velo has been down, which is certainly alarming. I like the ballpark and don’t mind the matchup against an average Padres offense, but it’s admittedly hard to have much faith given his wonky results of late. Skenes at $9,000 is certainly a discount, though, and this is a dart I’m happy to fire in GPPs if the field is low on him. Obviously, this is the kind of guy who can win you a slate, and I don’t really see any reason to think deGrom is much safer.
Taj Bradley (26.4% Ks, 10.4% walks, 3.96 SIERA) is solid. He gets a park downgrade going into steamy Sacramento, but at least he gets to face the watered-down A’s (.132 ISO, .308 wOBA vs. RHP). Bradley does have both control (11.8% walks) and power (14% barrels) issues with lefties, and he’s scheduled to face 5 of them here. Fortunately, most of them are mediocre, at best. There’s certainly risk with a flyball, power-prone pitcher in this park, but, like Skenes, I don’t mind Bradley in GPPs. I’d just rather splurge the extra $500 for Skenes.
Michael King gets the ball on the other side of Skenes’ matchup. He hasn’t really been the same guy this year post-injury (20.9% Ks, 9.5% walks), even if he’s done a decent job overall of limiting damage. The Pirates do profile much better against right-handers, though they do still have some high-strikeout bats (22.7%). I suppose King is okay, but I’d have more interest if he were cheaper than $8,000. Sadly, he is not.
Will Warren continues to allow too much power, but he’s also upped his K-rate to 24.5% over the last month. Houston isn’t a terrible matchup for a righty, though their numbers (.193 ISO, .341 wOBA) certainly don’t agree. I won’t have a ton of Warren on this slate, though I do think there’s some upside on the $7,400 tag.
Aaron Nola has a 5.12 ERA, which is surprising considering he’s stranded more baserunners (75.9%) than average. Usually when a guy has a fluky-high ERA, he’s experiencing bad luck on the basepaths. Nola’s K-rate (24.6%) is in line with what he’s done in recent yeras. His walks (7.8%) are up, though still around average overall. Nola’s 3.81 SIERA is good, and identical to what he posted in 2025.
He’s a flyball pitcher allowing a 9.5% barrel rate. As a result, he’s served up 31 dongs already. Not a huge surprise considering it’s the 3rd time in 4 years he’s allowed at least 30, but that explains it pretty well. The Mariners slugged 5 dingers just last night against Zack Wheeler and friends, but, overall, it’s been a pretty punchless offense (.154 ISO, .321 wOBA) this season. Nola gets a pretty sizable park bump, and he’s only $6,700. I think this is still a pretty good pitcher. If he can keep more balls in the yard, he should be fine. I like it.
Matthew Liberatore ($6,300) is shaping up to be quite the chalky SP2 option. This is a former top prospect who hasn’t quite put it all together, but over the last month, his strikeout rate is pushing 29%. Maybe he has, in fact, put it all together. Or maybe not.
Liberatore has also limited power pretty well. The Orioles offense he’ll face tonight has a scary .200 collective ISO vs. lefties, but they’re also striking out an absurd 26.5% of the time. There’s a lot of risk and a lot of potential reward here. I think at $6,300 the potential reward outweighs the risk, though the ownership may offset that a little.
Chris Bassitt will throw baseballs to the Redbirds for the Orangebirds on the other side of this one. This is an old man with a 14.8% strikeout rate for the season, while lefties have pounded him to the tune of a .400 wOBA. He may face 5 LHBs this evening, but it’s not a very daunting group of lefties outside of Alec Burleson. Bassitt is $5,500 and nobody’s gonna play him. I don’t think he’s a bad large-field pivot away from the chalkier Liberatore.
SP Rankings
- Gavin
- Liberatore
- Skenes
- deGrom
- Nola
- Bassitt
- Harrison
- Bradley
- Warren
- King
- Glasnow
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- Dodgers (at Bryce Elder)
- Twins (at Gage Jump)
- Blue Jays (vs. Seth Lugo)
- Yankees (vs. Ethan Pecko)
- Mariners (vs. Aaron Nola)
- Royals (at Max Scherzer)
- Giants (vs. Brady Singer)
- Phillies (at George Kirby)
- Astros (at Will Warren)
- A’s (vs. Taj Bradley)
The Dodgers don’t necessarily get a park upgrade going into Atlanta, but they do get to face the erratic Bryce Elder. Elder’s one skill is generating groundballs. Things can certainly go south for the Dodgers here if Elder enjoys some easy innings, but there’s really nothing here that suggests he’s going to shut ’em down more often than not.
LHBs have a .218 ISO against the right-hander over the last month. Good spot for Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, and Freddie Freeman, while all of Kyle Tucker, Alek Thomas, Tommy Edman, and Hunter Feduccia will have the platoon edge, too. Elder hasn’t really shut down righties, either, keeping Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez in play. Cheapies like Liberatore and Bassitt make is easy to pile up the pricier Dodger bats.
The Twins largely came through last night in Sacramento, because it always seems like chalky road offenses come through in Sacramento these days. The weather is still hitter-friendly, but I’m less geeked about this spot for Minnesota against Gage Jump. He’s a solid rookie lefty, and the Twins (.145 ISO, .317 wOBA) haven’t exactly lit the world ablaze vs. LHP this year.
I’m still prioritizing the righties if I’m playing them – Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, and Kaelen Culpepper. I assume they’ll be chalk again, and it’s chalk I’m happy to fade.
I mentioned Bradley’s troubles with lefties. The A’s have plenty of those, even if they’re not all that inspiring. Lawrence Butler is the only one with much power, while I’d still get to Jeff McNeil, Henry Bolte, Zack Gelof, and the fake Max Muncy.
Seth Lugo has looked a little better lately, but that’s relative to how terribly he started the season. The Blue Jays are, unfortunately, also terrible, but they do have a solid 4.45 total, and they’re incredibly cheap across the board. Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are still the Jays to prioritize.
The Yankees face Houston rookie Ethan Pecko. He’s probably not very good, at least not yet. No real reason to think the Yankees’ Sea Of Lefties can’t do damage here at home – Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia, and so on. They’re pricey, but Jose Caballero, Austin Wells, and George Lombard offer some relief.
Warren keeps allowing power, so I like a Yordan Alvarez/Daulton Varsho/Jeremy Pena mini on the Houston side.
Lefties against Max Scherzer, very much A Thing – Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey. Bobby Witt Jr. for the culture.
I like Nola, but he’s probably going to allow a homer or two, and things can certainly spin out of control from there. Cal Raleigh back? Maybe. Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Cole Young, and Dom Canzone are the others I’m into.
George Kirby has not been George Kirby this season. I still don’t love the Phillies, necessarily, but you’ll get guys like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Trea Turner at no ownership.
I don’t often play the Giants at home, but this is a decent spot against Brady Singer. This is a lineup of nobodies right now beyond Rafael Devers, but it’s just incredibly cheap. Noted dead LAPD cop Nate Furman and Drew Cavanaugh are both in the $2,000 range, while Jung Hoo Lee and Drew Gilbert will draw favorable lineup spots.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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