MLB DFS Picks: Top DraftKings Pitchers (8/15)

Please forgive the hilariously large Sandy Alcantara photo, it’s all I could find.

We’re back in business tonight with a 12-game bonanza kicking off at 7:07 PM ET. We love Toronto’s dumb start time, don’t we folks?

Last night’s MLB DFS picks fared decently well, so let’s keep it rolling tonight. Things look pretty dire on the pitching side, and we once again have Coors Field with which to contend. You’re probably not gonna feel comfortable with the pitchers in your lineup, but at least everyone’s dealing with the same pool.

Let’s dive in.

SP1 – Framber Valdez, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom, Noah Cameron

I’m loosening the standard restrictions with SP1s tonight given the lack of viable options. Framber Valdez ($10,500) and Jacob deGrom ($10,300) are the only true spend-ups, yet Valdez is the only one truly on my radar. He’s at home against the punchless Orioles, while deGrom gets a very difficult draw north of the border against the low-strikeout Blue Jays.

Valdez isn’t a great source of strikeouts (24.4%), but he will spike a big game on that front on occasion, and he keeps the ball on the ground at an elite 62% clip. We’ve been picking on Baltimore with lefties all year, and with good reason. The projected lineup is sporting a .119 ISO and a .263 wOBA against southpaws with just a 5.8% barrel rate. Most of the Orioles’ better hitters are left-handed, and Framber destroys his fellow lefties.

I think he’s the SP1 by a good margin, and I expect ownership to reflect that.

The next expensive pitcher on my list is Lucas Giolito at $8,500 at home against Miami. I’m not in love with this at all, as we’re still paying a decent chunk of change for a guy with a 19.6% strikeout rate in a hitter-friendly park. The Marlins also aren’t garbage anymore, as evidenced by their numbers vs. RHP:

That’s a lotta green, and not a whole lot of strikeouts (19.8%). Giolito is an okay play, but nothing resembling a priority.

I have next to no interest in paying 5 figures for deGrom against a very good offense, especially considering deGrom’s strikeout rate – while still good (27.2%) – is not what it was when he was at his peak. I think Noah Cameron is fine given the strikeouts in the White Sox’ lineup against lefties (24.1%), but he’s $9,300 and not a big K guy in his own right (20.2%).

At the top, I really just think it’s Valdez, and the others are multi-entry GPP dart throws. I’d rather play Valdez and save salary at SP2.

Official SP1 rankings:

Framber Valdez
Getting run over by a train
Lucas Giolito
Noah Cameron
Jacob deGrom

SP2 – Jack Perkins, Brandon Young, Joe Boyle, Sandy Alcantara

There are other passable pitchers on this slate (Luis Gil, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea), but I’m not enthralled with any of them. The quartet in the header here is nice and cheap, which comes in handy on a slate with a lot of excellent bats worth spending up for.

Jack Perkins is simply one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, yet he’s not priced accordingly at $5,900 for a home matchup with the Angels. The park is hitter-friendly, but the Halos strike out at a healthy 25.3% clip vs. RHP, and Perkins regularly posted K-rates well north of 30% at the upper levels of the minors. He’s only at 24% in a limited sample of MLB duty, but there’s real upside here. The Angels have enough power to give Perkins risk, but that risk is mitigated by the $5,900 salary.

Brandon Young ($5,600 at HOU) and Joe Boyle ($5,400 at SF) are also nice and cheap. Neither project to be as good as Perkins at the MLB level, but both have appeal at these salaries in favorable enough spots. Young is a right-hander going up against the RH-heavy Astros, while Boyle has some strikeout skills (24.6%) in the best pitcher’s park on the slate. The issue with Boyle is things can go south pretty quickly thanks to his erratic control, and it’s not like the Giants don’t have talented hitters.

Boyle is projected to be the highest-owned of the 3, yet I prefer Perkins by a good distance.

The other cheapie is Sandy Alcantara going into Fenway. The strikeouts haven’t shown signs of coming back around, and he’s still walking way too many lefties. If he keeps the ball on the ground, maybe he can luck into some easy innings. I’d get to some Alcantara in multi-entry large-field contests, but I just prefer the 3 guys under $6,000.

Official SP2 rankings: