Thursday is another day and it’s time to win big. Our Discord has been sick lately, with a slew of big winners. Our NBA DFS picks are part of that, but so is that awesome community. I highly suggest being part of that crew, as well as paying for our plays so you can put yourself in position to succeed. Oh, and if you haven’t already, try out our new DFS lineup tool, which has helped a lot of people in Discord.
For today, we get a nice little 2-game NBA DFS main slate at DraftKings. Yesterday went quite well, so let’s keep the engine running hot. I’ll highlight the top 3-4 core plays I want to build my lineups around, and I’ll also point you to some strong GPP pivots, as well as the best game to stack. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Sam Merrill, Kevin Huerter, and Luke Kennard.
- Best value plays: Daniss Jenkins & Cavs guys – Tyson and Schroder – if Merrill sits.
- Top game to attack: Pistons/Cavs. Much tighter spread.
- Top stud: LeBron. Cade/SGA project better but he’s the top spend from a value perspective.
- Blowout risks: Lakers/Thunder. Huge spread and Lakers still don’t have Luka.
Best NBA DFS Picks for Thursday
- LeBron James ($9.3k)
- Daniss Jenkins ($3.9k)
- Deandre Ayton ($5.2k)
- Jaylon Tyson/Schroder
Update: Adding Ayton to the core. Cheap with a clear path to a dub dub. Not expecting elite production, but he has a solid projection and if the game stays close he could smash. I am not listing a 4th core specifically, but Merrill is OUT so both Tyson and Schroder should push for 20 minutes. I doubt they both hit, but if I had to guess, one of them crushes their cheap price tag. Get exposure to both if running multiple lineups but if you need just one I lean Tyson due to a more versatile game.
Need more direction? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
LeBron is the best play of the slate. He’s showing up in a ton of lineups per our tool, he’s the best dollar for dollar stud, and he has to wreck for the Lakers to have any chance of being competitive against OKC.
King James has been dialed in throughout the playoffs, notching 43+ fantasy points in six of seven games. He has a clear path to massive usage and 50+ fps if the game can just stay reasonably close.
The other two guys are value punts who are going to be difficult to avoid. Duncan Robinson and Dennis Schroder are also guys I’d be looking at, but right now Jenkins is too cheap with Kevin Huerter listed as Doubtful.
Jenkins is gaining trust with 28+ minutes in back-to-back games. He’s doing more than scoring, too, which is probably just as encouraging as the burn. If he can stay on the floor and push for 30 minutes again, I don’t see how he stays out of the majority of my lineups.
Tyson can arguably be rotated with any other value play on this slate. However, we know he’s talented and can produce, and the status of Sam Merrill could open up 20-25 minutes in their rotation. Tyson was a mega bust last game, but he still has logged 13+ minutes in 7 of 8 playoff games. No Merrill would virtually lock him in as a viable value.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 5/7
Once again, I am locking in the core and then choosing between Cade or SGA. I go into that more a bit below, but right now my lean is whoever projects for lower ownership.
I’m also going to go after Lakers guys more aggressively than the field. Nobody really wants to play any of them outside of LeBron, so betting on an Austin Reaves bounce-back or going after guys like Rui, Ayton, Smart, and perhaps even Kennard makes a lot of sense.
The first game (DET/CLE) stands out as the most logical one to get the most exposure to. I would tend to agree and for most of my builds, I’d target that game. But in bigger GPPs, being more Lakers/Thunder centric is a great way to tip the scales.
- 🟢 SAFE – LeBron. Probably? His role is huge without Luka and he needs to crush to stay close.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Jenkins/Tyson. Injuries make them pretty safe based on price, but they’re both pretty volatile.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 5/7
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Thursday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- SGA/Cade
- James Harden ($8.2k)
- Jalen Duren ($7.1k)
Depending on where you look, the ownership for the top two studs is different. I think getting to one of them makes sense, but I would prefer to take advantage of an ownership gap here. They are both very pricey and project well, but our tool has Cade pulling less ownership at $500 more. I’d lean into that if the ownership holds up.
Cleveland lost game one and will be chomping at the bit to even this thing back up at 1-1. I tend to favor Spida in GPPs, but Harden is just as good (45 fps in game 1) and he might be lower owned. If that holds, I love Harden at a slightly discounted price in what is a must-win game for Cleveland.
Duren was a bum in round one, but he finally woke up in game 7 and then in game one against Cleveland he had his 2nd best game of the entire playoffs. Gross, but hey, 37+ fantasy points in consecutive games might just mean he’s starting to heat up.
Cleveland isn’t the most ideal draw, but they have size so Duren is going to be needed. That means big minutes for a guy who has a nice ceiling, can rebound well, and blocks shots. He’s too cheap, all things considered, and he’s probably not going to be owned enough.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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