Tuesday presents a 2-game NBA DFS slate we can take advantage of at DraftKings. The problem? One of the games is a 15-point spread abomination with the Thunder likely slated to destroy the Lakers.
While that sounds bad, there’s clear leverage to be had. Let’s go over the top NBA DFS picks that belong in your lineups, and then I’ll point out some GPP pivots and my overall approach to tonight’s action. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Kevin Huerter.
- Best value plays: Duncan Robinson and Daniss Jenkins.
- Top game to attack: Pistons/Cavs. Closer spread, higher total.
- Top stud: Cade Cunningham. Expensive, but top projecting stud.
- Blowout risks: Lakers/Thunder. Massive point spread.
Best NBA DFS Picks for Tuesday
- Deandre Ayton ($5.5k)
- Ajay Mitchell ($5.3k)
- LeBron James ($9.3k)
Need more direction? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Ayton is too cheap relative to the slate. L.A. badly needs him to produce offensively and help them on the glass. OKC is good inside and rebounds well, so while risky, Ayton in theory is too cheap to fade.
Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein are similar plays for OKC, but I like the minutes and ceiling more for Mitchell. His usage spikes with Jalen Williams sidelined, although both are good plays. I also really like Jarrett Allen, but I don’t want to lock you up with two center plays. Don’t think you can really go wrong between him or Hartenstein, though.
LeBron is going to be owned, but he’s the best value in terms of studs tonight. Cade and SGA look great, but LeBron isn’t that far behind them and he’s over $1k cheaper. He needs to beast out for the Lakers to have a shot at being competitive, too.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 5/5
I am going to play one of Cade or SGA and pair them with LeBron. Ayton/Ajay feel like good chalk, and then we can go get guys like Duncan and one of Allen/Hartenstein. We can look to get different elsewhere after that.
We need to eat some chalk on two-game slates, but we’ll also want to find a couple of spots to get different.
- 🟢 SAFE – None.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Lakers game has serious blowout risk so LeBron and Ayton are risky.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 5/5
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Tuesday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Donovan Mitchell ($8.5k)
- Austin Reaves ($7.8k)
Los Angeles is probably cooked if LeBron doesn’t play well, but Reaves is such a great leverage play on his ownership. You can play Reaves and hope he nukes and that James is just good enough to keep the game close.
You could always just pair them and go away from the two most expensive plays, too. I don’t think I love the idea of fading both Cade and SGA on a tiny slate like this, however.
Spida is even lower owned than Reaves. Playing Spida could include the core, or it could involve fading the Lakers pricey plays and running him opposite of Cade. The chalky and perhaps correct strategy is to fade the last game as much as you can, and if you do that you can still get different with a high upside play like Mitchell.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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